Plus/minus, Tottenham Hotspur, 22nd October 2013

Plus/minus, Southampton, 22nd October 2013

Plus/minus, Manchester United, 22nd October 2013

Plus/minus, Cardiff City, 22nd October 2013

Plus/minus, Aston Villa, 22nd October 2013

How much impact do individual players have on their team's performances?

Click to enlarge

The chart above details something of the relative contribution made by individual English Premiership players to their team performances: it maps the amount of goals scored and conceded per ninety minutes with each player on the field this season.  In effect, this chart mimics the plus/minus stat used in hockey*, adjusted for time spent on the field.

The sample size is relatively small – teams from five teams were included, one from each of five categories: last year’s champions, Manchester United, a top-four contender in Tottenham Hotspur, two suspiciously mid-table teams in Aston Villa and Southampton and promoted Cardiff City. 

A player’s contribution can be surmised from how far he is from a large cluster of teammates – these represent the players a manager thinks of as the core of his team.  Examples are easily found in the defensive units of Spurs, Villa, Southampton and Cardiff. 

The spread also represents the amount of squad rotation favoured by certain managers – the northwest regions of the graphic indicate Manchester United have a core that manager David Moyes is currently coming to grips with simply by virtue of the player spread.  Southampton, however, are far more congested.

We can see that the player who represents the greatest forward boon to his side is Wayne Rooney, who after a slow start, has made a startling return to form at Old Trafford.  While it’s no surprise given his team’s relative miserliness, Nathaniel Clyne of Southampton seems to have proven the difference between the Saints scoring or not.

(This ongoing project began as an attempt to keep plus minus records for individual Premier League players; you can find the results here: so far, the player with the worst plus/minus ratio is Kim Bo Kyung of Cardiff City followed by Ashley Young of Manchester United; the player from the five teams selected with the best plus/minus stat is again Nathaniel Clyne).

Postecoglou must be new Socceroo manager

Holger Osieck ended his association with Australian soccer an unpopular coach whose side capitulated 6-0 twice in succession.  If anything is liable to have a manager fired, it is a pitiful loss against reasonable opposition and the German was dismissed in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s match against France.

According to the normal chain of events, speculation is gathering as to the identity of his successor with the most high-profile names being Socceroo Swami Guus Hiddink, ex-Chile and Athletic Bilbao boss Marcelo Bielsa and – for some unknown reason – Roberto Di Matteo.  Were Australia focusing solely on the World and Asian Cups of 2014 and 15, an “impact signing” excelling at tournament football – and hopefully at pulling strings at European clubs – would seem a wise investment.

However, none of the three “names” above would be inclined to hang around to create a platform for future development; to an ambitious non-Aussie, the most appealing aspect of the Australia job is almost certainly its potential for a quick profit. 

Australia has lacked footballing identity since the 2010 World Cup. Until that time, the boys in Gold were a lineup of predictably loveable maulers: their backline boasted Craig Moore, Lucas Neill and Scott Chipperfield while the midfield was manned by uncompromising sorts Brett Emerton and Vince Grella.  The team’s only lightweight, Harry Kewell, flitted about behind man-mountain Mark Viduka and his unsettlingly-physical Boy Wonder, Tim Cahill. 

With the Green and Gold army clamouring for generational change and the press conferences of some of the Socceroo elite seemingly endorsing such claims, Football Federation of Australia Chairman and all-around-Daddy-Warbucks-figure Frank Lowy has narrowed the association’s focus and suggested the biggest hire in Australian soccer is likely to be from the FFA’s back room, the A-League. 

The Australian national team needs to be the pinnacle for any Australian footballer. While the A-League has strengthened, the player pathways that produced the Golden Generation that peaked in 2006 have become overgrown.  A strong Socceroo side with structures based around player development both at home and abroad is an absolute necessity for football to become more deeply rooted in the antipodean sporting consciousness.  The coach best able to implement such a program must be employed.

For the first time in a generation, an Australian is almost certainly the best person for the position.

Lowy has effectively narrowed the field to three candidates – Tony Popovic of nascent Western Sydney Wanderers; former interim Socceroo manager Graham Arnold, now of the Central Coast Mariners; and Melbourne Victory kingpin Ange Postecoglou.

All the candidates present convincing resumés despite high-profile failures.  Of the three, Arnold probably comes with the most baggage due to his underwhelming Asian Cup leadership of 2007; however, he has developed a consistently good Mariners outfit despite a tight budget even by A-League standards.  His appointment may be seen as a reward to a company man. Popovic has a jaw-dropping level of natural talent for management and served an impressive apprenticeship before taking a journeyman bunch of Wanderers into the league finals in their first season.  Questions remain, however, as to his experience.

Even with these negative aspects, were Arnold or Popovic to earn the position, Australia could feel confident about the Socceroos’ future. 

However, the most compelling choice is Ange Postecoglou.  After turning the Brisbane Roar from also-rans into dominant Premiers, he is currently re-shaping the A-League’s biggest club into a younger, more vital side; his modus operandi is to turn young footballers into disciplined and productive units.

This is based in part about his coaching philosophy: his teams hold the ball and use it rather than Osieck’s haphazard, “needs-must” approach.  In an age where Australian youngsters have struggled to claim positions for the National side, pragmatism has few uses even focusing solely upon next year’s Cup.  If a player – especially a youngster – knows ahead of time what is expected of a Socceroo, he is in far better position to prepare.

Despite the short lead-in to the World Cup, the FFA is in an enviable position.  They can finally choose a manager to mould a team with the future in mind rather than employing someone they hope is able to bring about short-term results.  The Round of Sixteen would of course be nice, but the Socceroos can no longer afford to focus on the twilights Schwarzer, Neill and Cahill.  The outlook must now be on the retirements of James Holland, Tom Rogic and Matthew Spiranovic.

Osieck not long for Socceroos' top job

With Australian football trying to regain its feet after a 6-0 pasting against Brazil last month, speculation has intensified over the future of Socceroo coach Holger Osieck. The German manager has appeared a man unable to take forward steps in the past twelve months, with his players effectively playing according to inconsistent tactics; even his greatest moment in 2013 was tarnished by a poorly-timed sexist joke. The only thing Osieck has definitively delivered for Australia has been PR calamity: perfunctory football run by a quasi-unlikable boss.

The only things in Osieck's favor - significant though they may be - include a truncated lead-in time for any new manager and the $1 million he's still owed by the Football Federation of Australia Frank Lowy. Although he remains unpopular, it still remains more likely than not that the manager incumbent will lead the likes of Brett Holman, Tommy Oar and Archie Thompson (!) to South America and, ultimately, disappointment.

Strangely, the single greatest reason for the appointment of a new boss might be a limited talent pool. With Australia's best 20 players almost set in stone, the only way a new gaffer might impact the side during the year-til-Brazil would be to engage players and encourage tactical buy-in. This is an aspect of management Osieck has found difficult, because his iteration of Australia simply hasn't had the identity of past sides. For years, Australia was a burly, physical outfit capable of controlling games through brute strength. As players like Oar and Tom Rogic replaced the Mark Vidukas and Scott Chipperfields of the world, the Socceroos lost some of that identity and therefore Osieck has settled for an inconsistent style.

A new manager - Leo Beenhakker, perhaps? Or Johan Neeskens? - might help develop a national team with an identity and a definite idea of how to play to type. However, with Lowy burnt twice by international bosses (neither Osieck nor his predecessor Pim Verbeek have been a real success), the inclination is that Osieck will retain his post for the Fiesta World Cup, but only that long.

Man United's Januzaj makes right choice: not to choose

The international break approaches us like the semi in Duel – from a speck in the distance, it sneakily becomes overwhelming. Today’s World Cup Qualifiers include important matches between the Euro 2012 hosts in Kharkov and a Sweden/Austria matchup that might determine Group C’s playoff entrant, while the contest in Mexico City could keep the hopes alive of both Panama and Mexico.

The European confederation enters the week’s festivities in a curious manner: five separate national Football Associations are “keeping tabs” on a single player, Adnan Januzaj, a winger helping to dispel Manchester United’s Moyesian malaise. It emerged on Monday that all of the Belgian, English, Serbian, Turkish, Albanian and embryonic Kosovar Associations feel as if the Premiership’s most babyfaced star might be tempted to play for their country.

It’s not unknown for a player to choose his nationality based upon his residence or passport in many sports, but football is undoubtedly the most high-profile. To take two higher-profile examples, Croatia forward Eduardo spent the first sixteen years of his life in Brazil, while James McCarthy was born and raised in Scotland but represents Ireland, the country of his grandparents. Tug-of-loves in International football occur about as regularly as they do on Coronation Street.

However, Januzaj’s situation is different. The player is only eighteen and hasn’t represented any country in youth football; although on the exterior it feels … unwholesome for him to play for the Three Lions after two years in the country, should he feel the appropriate affinity for England, Januzaj should be entitled to cast his lot in forever with them, after he has served the requisite time. The same goes for Belgium, Serbia, Turkey (who are notoriously convincing) and even Kosovo, pending … well, a bunch.

Adnan Januzaj should be absolutely allowed – and encouraged – to choose whoever he wishes. Unlike days past, nationality is a now a fluid concept; perhaps even it is a decision that young men should take more seriously than who they play their club football for. What would have the impact been on Wilfried Zaha – and the Ivory Coast – had he opted to play from them instead of England? For Januzaj there might be even more stark implications, what reaction would there be from Kosovars should he choose to play for Serbia?  Choosing a nationality, even just for a chance to play at the World Cup, should not be easy. Therefore, Januzaj is wise to take the time he needs rather than accepting whichever call-ups hit his door first.

The same choice has recently been faced by the likes of Victor Moses, Wilfried Zaha or Raheem Sterling. If only they had the foresight and wisdom to simply make a statement to the effect of Januzaj – I’ll play for who I like, when I’m ready – they might have saved themselves a significant amount of confusion. 

Plus/minus, Tottenham Hotspur, 8th October 2013