Copa del Rey provides Real Madrid's "Predator" moment

To the Madridista, last week's Copa del Rey win wasn't just tacit validation of Florentino Perez's updated Galacticos - version 2.0 - but also proof that this may well have been Jose Mourinho's Predator moment: the instant a challenging club doesn't just reason instinctively that the champ is vulnerable, but has sees and, crucially, believes they can exploit that weakness.

The expression was popularised in Australia in 2001, when the coach of the AFL's Brisbane Lions, Leigh Matthews, announced of a seemingly indomitable Essendon "If it bleeds, we can kill it". In doing so, he echoed Arnold Schwarzenegger's iconic phrase from the 1987 Action extravaganza Predator and his comments were lapped up by thirsty national media outlets desperate for another angle on the brutal Bombers. Last week in the Copa, Los Merengues not only discovered for themselves that Barcelona were a team of humans but also, that they had themselves several advantages over the Catalans.

While Real did not dominate the game, neither did Barca. Given Mourinho's success last year in negating the Catalans with Champions' League winners Inter Milan and his setup for their 5-0 thrashing at the Camp Nou earlier this season, Los Merengues were hardly likely to try and beat Barca at their own game. Both enjoyed periods of dominance in the archetypal "Game of Two Halves" and perhaps the greatest obvious difference between the two was up front, where a misfiring David Villa was overshadowed by flashes of brilliance from Real pair Angel Di Maria and Cristiano Ronaldo.

And it's not just that Villa is still to score in eleven matches where Barcelona should be concerned. Their bench had no further attacking substitutes, with only recent signing Ibrahim Afellay and youngster Thiago Alcantara able to reinforce the offence. That pair sat alongside defence stalwarts Puyol, Maxwell, Valdes and Milito. In contrast, Real Madrid could have brought on any of Emanuel Adebayor, Kaka, Karim Benzema or Gonzalo Higuain. As irresistable as Barcelona has been for nigh-on three years, there are definite cracks in their pristine veneer. If any manager is capable of revealing them so apparently, it would surely be Jose Mourinho.

That's not to say that all is lost for the Catalans. Rather than opting for one of his central defenders, Pep Guardiola opted to use midfielder Javier Mascherano at centre-back who was often overwhelmed in the air by both Cristiano Ronaldo and Adebayor; the latter so impressive during his cameo appearance that it must make both Roberto Mancini and his dutiful Man City fans feel thoroughly used. Also worth considering is that neither the inspirational Puyol, sprite-like Bojan nor the inadjectivable Jeffren played for Barcelona. With their style of football and the players at their disposal (and there's good reason to think that in Iniesta, Xavi and Messi they boast three of the top four players in the world - if not the best three) their game is hardly likely to drop over the next few years. Xavi is the oldest of that trio at the grand old age of 31.

Now having played their nemeses three times this season, Mourinho's men sport a record of 1-1-1 against the men from Catalonia. With each increasing match, their results have improved: a 5-0 thrashing away in La Liga during November, a draw in the first of four consecutive Clasicos last week again in La Liga, and now a win in the Cup, albeit in added time. It could be that with those most vital matches approaching - their Champions' League Semi-Final - Mourinho's men have fostered enough self-belief to unseat the club many rush to call Best Ever.

With the third of four Clasicos due on Wednesday, Mourinho's match preparation should include playing his men a worn-out VHS copy of Predator. They believe it now - Barcelona can be beaten. Whether Barcelona fall into the same traps, depends on if they learn faster than a superintelligent, totally camouflaged alien killing machine. The bet here is they will - meaning another fantastic match on Wednesday.

Fevola's issues will haunt his future

Even though he's been cleared of wrongdoing in his most recent infraction, Brendan Fevola had tried to walk too fine a line for too long without falling off. And unsurprisingly, for someone so regularly affected by intoxicants, he didn't fall but reel from the straight and narrow to find himself now without a club for 2011 and perhaps approaching the AFL scrapheap for good.

As we said in January, he's far too talented to be thrown for good to the wolves of fortune, but at present he's so fractured that there remains too few recognisable pieces to allow his management to being the process of rebuilding. So often one cannot make lasting change until they hit rock bottom. For a man with as apparently little to his life as Fevola, he probably can't get any lower. There's little coincidence that his longest trouble-free period was during the time he abstained from alcohol during his then-wife's pregnancy and a similar decision would seem to be the first step in rehabilitating both his career and his life. Former NBA star and Original Dream Team member Chris Mullin forswore drinking after his second year in the leage after running into problems once too often and turned an potential also-ran career into a one possibly destined for the Hall of Fame. The troubled forward should take heed.

Where next, though? The VFL would melt down should one of the second-tier clubs manage to land Fev; the chances of his succeeding in the WAFL or SANFL is unlikely - a bagful of goals perhaps not worth the headache. The NFL, perhaps? Australia's greatest-ever NFL player, Darren Bennett recently said that the North American league would have no interest in such a wild chile as Fevola - it only bears imagining what Fevola would do in a party city like New York or San Francisco if his celebratory style was too much for Brisbane to handle. As is always the case with him, it's not his talent questioned but his application. Unable to cope with the solitary lifestyle in Queensland, fears exist that he would self-destruct, supernova-style, if allowed free reign and a salary in excess of seven figures. With a lockout looming in the NFL as well, any chances of him securing a career as a punter are unlikely.

A few years ago there was the much-publicised case of Carlton's Lawrence Angwin and Karl Norman turning up to training still affected by disco biscuits from the night before. Popular opinion had one, the other or both suffering from either ADD or ADHD. All the signs point to Fevola suffering the same condition - be it very difficult to diagnose from such a great distance and without personal interaction. His lifestyle will no doubt change - it will have to - as match payments turn from five-figure to low four-figure sums at best. With his alleged gambling debts, Fev his not backed himself into a corner but walked either willingly or been unable to control his direction of travel.

We can only hope for Brendan Fevola's sake that his AFL career is not over - there's every chance that Kevin Sheedy will be his saviour at Greater Western Sydney - but his tale is ending as Carlton expected. His days of clowning now won't be met with resignation but with sadness.

The New Game in the North: NEAFL 2011

While doing a vague internet search today about the AFL's newest member club, the Greater Western Sydney Giants, I found something which surprised me - there's a new league in Australia this year. Surprised, I decided to look closer at the format for the nascent North East Australian Football League.

The local competitions in the northern states have been a shemozzle for some (all?) time and it's about time that the AFL had interceded and decided to put them right. In the early days of the national competition, the Swans and Bears would send their reservists to Melbourne for the VFL/AFL reserves competition - Brisbane even won the Premiership in 1991. Since the AFL correctly deduced an official Reserves' League was financially unviable for non-Victorian teams, Brisbane and Sydney have been forced to play their second-stringers in local, substandard leagues.

The new NEAFL will have Eastern and the Northern Divisions, with the Eastern comprised of the largest five teams from AFL Canberra - Ainslie, Belconnen, Eastlake, Queanbeyan, Tuggeranong, as well as Sydney Swans Reserves and Greater Western Sydney developmental squads. The Northern conference will start with eight QAFL teams (Aspley, Broadbeach, Labrador, Morningside, Mt. Gravatt, Northern Territory, Redland and Southport) plus the Lions and Suns Reserves.

Although hampered by the fact it isn't the dominant sport in these states, Australian Rules hasn't developed in the North to the AFL's liking and as such they have apparently decided to take control of these leagues to engender stability, player pathways and adequate competition for developing, out-of-form and second-string Suns, Lions, Swans and Giants players. The clubs involved are impressive enough - most, if not all the big names north of the Murray will take part - meaning the competition should also have some local appeal and repute. A downside is the lack of top tier Sydney clubs, with Pennant Hills the most conspicuously absent team, but there are strong arguments that even the strongest local Sydney teams would struggle to compete against full-time professionals. However, with only seven teams in the Eastern Conference, there is room for growth as the AFL attempts to capture the imagination of those in that great unknown, Western Sydney.

With no crossover between states until finals time the fiscal cost for these old clubs will remain at near enough 2010 levels. This also means that for all the novelty, there won't be too much difference between the competitions now and past, but the AFL can monitor and guide the sport's progress in the undiscovered country. With the new AFL franchises now blooded, the League is more invested than ever before in a local competition which allows youngsters inspired by the AFL to develop and start "giving back" to Australian Rules. The NEAFL isn't just about making sure that Western Sydney and the Gold Coast are successful - and on that the AFL has staked a lot - but on backing up their big money expeditions into new territories with grass-roots development.

With a litany of failed and bankrupt clubs in both the ACT, New South Wales and Queensland, the AFL is readying itself for the two-fronted fight to develop the sport in the north. There have been plenty of "knockers" of the Great West Sydney Experiment with valid queries about Sydney's readiness to accept a second AFL team. With the NEAFL's genesis, however, the AFL is suggesting that it's more prepared for a drive into Rugby heartland than we had previously suspected.

How do you solve a problem like Fevola?

Language warning - this post contains potty-mouth quotes from a TV series.

At the moment, my wife and I are watching "The Wire" on DVD and last night we viewed the episode where the ostensible hero Jimmy McNulty is rescued from the Baltimore Police Department Marine Unit at the request of his colleagues Lester Freamon & Bunk Moreland. Moreland summed it up thus: "Thing is ... that is Jimmy McNulty when he ain't policing: a picture postcard of a drunken, self-destructive fuck-up. And when he is policing, he's pretty much the same motherfucker, but on a good case, right out in front of the pack. And that's as close as the man comes to being right".

And they could just be talking about Brendan Fevola. To say Fevola has issues is like saying Cookie Monster has problems with baked goods. Always an enfant terrible, over the past few years his misdemeanours have gone from bad to worse: from the alcohol-fuelled Brownlow Medal Street Talk where he flapped the unflappable Chris Judd; to his dalliances with Bingle. And it led to this - arrested by Queensland police for being drunk and disorderly in the Valley.

There's a good chance, after all he's been through, that Brendan Fevola is approaching the bottom of the emotional trough. Because his house has crumbled around his ears, he's got nearly nothing left in the tank to stop him doing stupid stuff because alcohol and being a lout is all he has left. It's a horrible statement to make about a guy who only two years ago earned his near-million dollar-per contract but his last year and half hasn't been the stuff of nightmares but of despair. While football afficionados salivated over the prospect of Fevola and Jonathon BROWN! (sorry, force of habit) reproducing the magic of forward tandems past, Fevola was neither healthy or motivated.

Brisbane have investigated voiding his contract in the past and there should be no surprsies that they've done so. Firstly because they're haemmorhaging money - Fev's contract can be directly linked to them losing Michael Rischitelli to the Gold Coast Suns this offseason - and secondly, because they'd really like him to just go away and avoid the controversy and the crowded forward line where neither key guy has space to operate. As much as footy prizes conformity and the intangibles of team play, Fevola now stands out as an individual talent in a game where they aren't valued as highly as in days past.

Fev's pink slip has been signed and sitting in the CEO's drawer for some time now, especially after he was accused of exposing himself to a young Brisbane mother. What's most unfortunate though is that the human cost of firing Fevola is too great to risk. As we've said, Brendan Fevola has issues and as such becomes an even greater risk to himself should he be cut loose.

If Fevola is sacked - and Brisbane has plenty of good reasons to want this to happen, even if it is unlikely - then the train wreck that is Fevola's private life suddenly becomes the only thing in his existence and he becomes less likely and less able to get high-level help which, from the outside, he desperately needs. While he has value on the football field - either trade value, on-field currency or as a forward who draws the opposition's better defenders - then he's going to receive the best treatment and help from the Lions organisation. While he can help the Lions, the Lions will help him. Should he be released, there's the likelihood that he will self-destruct and end up following the path of Ronnie Wearmouth - silly talent, sillier head, tragic story. Without the value that he holds to the Lions and in debt to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars (allegedly), then it's feasible that Brendan Fevola feels the best way to pull himself together is to do what he knows: drink, and be a lout. The vicious circle becomes apparent and suddenly the issue isn't Fevola's life in footy, but his life.

There may well be hope for the boy from Narre Warren though in the unlikely form of another eastern suburbs boy, Travis Tuck. Tuck in early 2009 looked a potential Hawthorn captain and a walk-up start for the Hawks. Long touted as the most talented of the Tucks, he suffered a private struggle with depression, followed by issues with drugs and, unfortunately, a public overdose. Hawks' chairman Jeff Kennett - also heavily involved in the National Depression Iniative Beyond Blue - insisted that the club retain Tuck's services because it would be best for his mental health; not only was it a laudable decision but it was the right one. Whether or not Brisbane feels it owes the same courtesy to Fevola is unclear.

But there's very little disputing that when Brendan Fevola isn't playing footy, to quote directly, he is a picture postcard of a drunken, self-destructive fuck-up. And when he is playing football, he's pretty much the same motherfucker, but an outstanding forward, right out in front of the pack. And -unfortunately at the moment, it seems that's as close as the man comes to being right.

Poster's recommendation: Go out and watch The Wire. It's fantastic.