Thursday, March 6, 2014
An elegy for Carles Puyol, part 2: on Paul Chapman and personal reflections
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
AFL Finals predictions
Matt's take: The most fancied side to repeat since the Lions' against the Pies in 2002. There's not a single weakness in their squad and, crucially, they have depth in their lower list - a "foot soldier" can be adequately replaced, rather than bringing in real rookies.
Geelong - Realise I could end up with egg on my face on this one, but their second place on the ladder is a bit of a furphy promoted by a true home ground advantage at Kardinia Park. Have watched them a few times this year and they look old, coupled with being shorn of Abletts they lack the 'zazz' that made them unstoppable at times during 2007-2010. Its no shame - they have had their period in the sun and based on the AFL model may have gone longer at the top than reasonably expected. (EIC Matt currently yelling 'tag me in, tag me in!' WWF-style). That being said as Nick Davis once tried to say 'Form is temporary, class is permanent' (still not sure who he was referring to). Despite age, there is still class at the Cattery and they remain a chance. Number 4 challenger for Collingwood.
Matt's take: I reckon the Cats have peaked for the year, but still probably have what it takes to be reckoned Collingwood's greatest threat. They have a multitude of forward options - who never seem to fire at once, unless we're playing Melbourne/Gold Coast - and a defence which, while aging, can shut down the best. The midfield - formerly a strength - is now the greatest question mark no matter how good Kelly, Bartel and Selwood are. Strangely, stalwart fringe players David Wojcinski and Shannon Byrnes may be the players most vital to a successful finals campaign.
Hawthorn - I saw the Hawks last weekend and have pegged them as the Number 1 challenger for Collingwood. They are as hard at the ball as any side, their weakness is in their skills. If their skills are good, they have the best chance of beating anyone. They were awful by hand and foot on Saturday, but by force of effort just kept pushing the ball forward. Hodge is brilliant at winning the ball in close and Franklin is amazing, particularly when the game needs him to do something amazing. Then they have 20 other 'foot soldiers' playing as harder football as I have seen.
Matt's take: If only they weren't injury-prone. I can't agree with Ben's lack of skill comment as they are perhaps the most precise mid-to-long range kicking squad in the league. Their trump card, as always, is Buddy Franklin and if he gets quality supply from Lewis, Sewell et al, the Hawks leap the Cats as threats. Jam the midfield and Buddy doesn't get the chances - it's all so easy in theory, isn't it?
West Coast - Surprise packet of the season. Helped by fortress Subiaco - but only will get one final there at most. Number 2 Challenger for Collingwood. Inexperience will also count against them but they are pretty much assured of a preliminary final spot. Prelims and Granny's are far more a lottery than the other finals - in fact I don't think coaches can do much after semi-finals which is why I reckon the dogs sacking Eade is the wrong call an completely unfair. If the weather is fine, Nick Nat puts on a show for the ages they could do the business.
Matt's take: Famously, half-way through the 1996 season, Rodney Eade was asked if his Swans could go all the way to the Grand Final. His reply was "No, I don't think so - history says you need to have a few seasons in the finals before you make [that] leap". The Swans surprised, but my guess it actually applies here - the Eagles have to travel and don't do that as well as in their 2004-07 heyday. If they surprise Collingwood in Week One, they're a chance to go all the way but, with Collingwood, that's a really big "if".
Carlton - For the first time in ages, a team outside the Top Four may be a decent chance (say, greater than 5%) to win it all. And there are two (StK is the other)! Can challenge Collingwood in the midfield, but are let down by a strictly-average defence and the fact Brett Thornton still gets a game. Inconsistent as any team in the finals. On their day, devastating, but when they're not on they are abysmal and too reliant upon Chris Judd. Number 3 Challenger for Collingwood is a a choice of youth over experience (Geelong), but I'll go with it. Believe Brett Ratten (like Dean Laidley was) is a coach who can only develop a team so far, and he has hit his ceiling. Trade tip - Bryce Gibbs back to Adelaide (hometown and club needing class), for Kurt Tippett (Carlton needing a stronger key forward than Waite).
Matt's take: They'll make a Preliminary Final, at least - because one of the teams above them will slip up. They have the beating of Essendon in Week One (cop that, Bomber!) and, should their Top Four opponent not be on the ball - I'm looking at you, Corio Bay - then they will surprise. Partly also because Judd/Murphy is becoming the New New Judd/Cousins, replacing Ablett/Bartel. I love Ben's trade idea, as well.
St Kilda - When I saw the Cats play the Saints at the 'G in June, it was perhaps the most painful night of my life. They were horrible and I vowed they would never win the flag with as morose an individual as Ross Lyon as coach. They had no second gear, plan B or creative vision that night apart from setting records for the number of taggers they employed. They have improved, winning six straight, and are even showing some attacking flair. This though only rates them Number 5 Challenger for Collingwood.
Matt's take: It will take superhuman efforts from Nick Riewoldt and co. to vault them into Preliminary Final week. In opposition to Collingwood, their recruitment policy has been shown up for its horrible flaws - they have great blue chip talent (Riewoldt, Goddard etc) but players 30-40 on their list may as well play for Balwyn in the EFL.
Sydney - Only the spirit that they can show when not the favourites gives them a whiff, but Adam Goodes is petulant when things aren't going his way. Number 6 challenger for Collingwood.
Matt's take: Can we play every game in Sydney? No, not at the Olympic Stadium, at the SCG. No? OK, FOOTY TRIP TIME!! Everyone remember to make sure both your girlfriends don't turn up at the same time to pick you up from the airport.
Essendon - Riddled with injury and too inconsisent. No hope. Number 7 Challenger for Collingwood.
Matt's take: As long as Hird has the team playing the way they should, even making the finals in a strong season is reason to be satisfied. Jimmy won't omit all his ruckmen, as Knights did two seasons ago, and nor should he as with mobile big men like Paddy Ryder and Tom Belchambers, the Dons look better set up in the middle than at any time since the late '80s when Simon Madden was in his pomp.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Copa del Rey provides Real Madrid's "Predator" moment
To the Madridista, last week's Copa del Rey win wasn't just tacit validation of Florentino Perez's updated Galacticos - version 2.0 - but also proof that this may well have been Jose Mourinho's Predator moment: the instant a challenging club doesn't just reason instinctively that the champ is vulnerable, but has sees and, crucially, believes they can exploit that weakness.
The expression was popularised in Australia in 2001, when the coach of the AFL's Brisbane Lions, Leigh Matthews, announced of a seemingly indomitable Essendon "If it bleeds, we can kill it". In doing so, he echoed Arnold Schwarzenegger's iconic phrase from the 1987 Action extravaganza Predator and his comments were lapped up by thirsty national media outlets desperate for another angle on the brutal Bombers. Last week in the Copa, Los Merengues not only discovered for themselves that Barcelona were a team of humans but also, that they had themselves several advantages over the Catalans.
While Real did not dominate the game, neither did Barca. Given Mourinho's success last year in negating the Catalans with Champions' League winners Inter Milan and his setup for their 5-0 thrashing at the Camp Nou earlier this season, Los Merengues were hardly likely to try and beat Barca at their own game. Both enjoyed periods of dominance in the archetypal "Game of Two Halves" and perhaps the greatest obvious difference between the two was up front, where a misfiring David Villa was overshadowed by flashes of brilliance from Real pair Angel Di Maria and Cristiano Ronaldo.
And it's not just that Villa is still to score in eleven matches where Barcelona should be concerned. Their bench had no further attacking substitutes, with only recent signing Ibrahim Afellay and youngster Thiago Alcantara able to reinforce the offence. That pair sat alongside defence stalwarts Puyol, Maxwell, Valdes and Milito. In contrast, Real Madrid could have brought on any of Emanuel Adebayor, Kaka, Karim Benzema or Gonzalo Higuain. As irresistable as Barcelona has been for nigh-on three years, there are definite cracks in their pristine veneer. If any manager is capable of revealing them so apparently, it would surely be Jose Mourinho.
That's not to say that all is lost for the Catalans. Rather than opting for one of his central defenders, Pep Guardiola opted to use midfielder Javier Mascherano at centre-back who was often overwhelmed in the air by both Cristiano Ronaldo and Adebayor; the latter so impressive during his cameo appearance that it must make both Roberto Mancini and his dutiful Man City fans feel thoroughly used. Also worth considering is that neither the inspirational Puyol, sprite-like Bojan nor the inadjectivable Jeffren played for Barcelona. With their style of football and the players at their disposal (and there's good reason to think that in Iniesta, Xavi and Messi they boast three of the top four players in the world - if not the best three) their game is hardly likely to drop over the next few years. Xavi is the oldest of that trio at the grand old age of 31.
Now having played their nemeses three times this season, Mourinho's men sport a record of 1-1-1 against the men from Catalonia. With each increasing match, their results have improved: a 5-0 thrashing away in La Liga during November, a draw in the first of four consecutive Clasicos last week again in La Liga, and now a win in the Cup, albeit in added time. It could be that with those most vital matches approaching - their Champions' League Semi-Final - Mourinho's men have fostered enough self-belief to unseat the club many rush to call Best Ever.
With the third of four Clasicos due on Wednesday, Mourinho's match preparation should include playing his men a worn-out VHS copy of Predator. They believe it now - Barcelona can be beaten. Whether Barcelona fall into the same traps, depends on if they learn faster than a superintelligent, totally camouflaged alien killing machine. The bet here is they will - meaning another fantastic match on Wednesday.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
"Bomber" Thompson's strange rhetoric
Mark Thompson is unrepentant as to the manner in which he left Geelong in October. No surprises there. In fact, in today's Age he actually came off sounding as if he was the one who was wronged in the messy marriage-breakup that was his exit from the Cattery.
His quotes in that newspaper are telling as words like "I can look myself in the mirror and just say I'm happy with everything that I've done" and "I gave anything I could possibly give. I walked away from a very lucrative contract" give an insight into his mindset: mildly hurt and surprised by the furore his decision has generated. But what he fails to realise is that by defending himself in this manner, he can only further infuriate the Cats supporters who saw his last season derailed by the constant circus surrounding Gary Ablett's possible move to the Gold Coast. Ablett eventually walked and so did Thompson. It's probable the Geelong faithful will wish the Brownlow Medallist more good favour than their former coach. It's also likely that Li'l Gary's departure will be seen as a much lesser act of disloyalty.
Because make no bones about it, Thompson tried to curry favour with both board and public in order to rid himself of his obligation to Geelong and re-join his former club Essendon. By claiming burn out, he didn't lie but withheld portions of the truth so as to reflect more sympathetically. He's re-stated his lack of desire to continue as a senior coach and thus feels justified, but by claiming ill-health - which is what burn-out equates to - only to re-surface a mere month later at another club makes him look economical with the truth.
There's little doubt that "Bomber" was burnt out. Indeed, in his interview yesterday he looked very well, rested and much healthier than he did during almost all of his stint at Kardinia Park. This can only back up his side of the story but from the outside it looks very much as if Thompson's head was turned toward Bomberland by all that he sought: less stress, re-uniting with a former club and a new challenge. When he realised the grass was greener back in Melbourne, it was down to him to engineer an excuse for leaving.
It's often said that some coaches are re-building masters and others don't have the stomach for that aspect of the job. Thompson had been the coach at Geelong for a decade and the reconstruction of that Cats side from afterthought to Premiers took the best part of those ten years by which time he was facing another remodelling. The fact that many of his best players are approaching retirement meant a bevy of personnel decisions and probable rebuilding from scratch. To be blunt, he just wasn't up for it.
Perhaps ten years of intense scrutiny in the fishbowl of Corio Bay took it's toll. Most tellingly of all, Thompson yesterday said "Being a senior coach, you just get criticised very heavily a lot of the times in your life and you almost become immune to it and that’s where I’m at" before continuing to say "I don’t have a problem with Geelong at all. If they have (with me) it's their problem. I gave anything I could possibly give. I walked away from a very lucrative contract ...".
Therein lies the problem: Thompson feels no remorse because he's been pilloried so heavily over the years that his response is one of a learned behaviour: go with his instincts and stick to any decision he makes. The criticism has given him such a thick skin that even he struggles to see through it. Thompson is happy with everything that he's done only because he's been desensitised by the scrutiny he's endured, even to the point of refusing to examine his decision-making process.
Were he to look at his departure objectively then perhaps he would think he owed Geelong hierarchy the complete truth. Of course that's unlikely.
Also irksome is his statement about "giving anything possible". Actually, it's complete rubbish. By resigning, Thompson broke his contract and as such forfeited any monies due to him. This doesn't constitute not giving up anything, only not receiving money for work which he did not complete. Giving implies he bought his way out of his contract, something which patently did not occur.
It was perhaps the most poorly kept secret in AFL football that "Bomber" would eventually take the senior assistant role at Essendon. New coach James Hird wanted him and he wanted to come. However he didn't escape the Cattery with his dignity intact. By telling half-truths to his comrades fearing the whole story would make him look bad, he has just made himself look worse. It's too bad that this ill-judgement means he will not just be remembered for two premierships and the fantastic play the Cats have delivered over the past decade. He will now, like Norm Smith, always be remembered for the way he left.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
The Dawson Quandary
After the movie I jumped online briefly and the first footy headline I happened upon was “Knights-mare continues”, a stinging rebuke aimed at Essendon's performance against the West Coast Eagles. Eagle Mark LeCras slotted twelve goals, four-to-six of which were on beleaguered and probably overmatched Don Heath Hocking. Why four-to-six? Because Knights says four were kicked directly on Hocking, while pretty much everyone else says young Heath shopped six.
You can absolutely watch “The Club” substituting the Essendon hierarchy with the main characters and it makes perfect sense: a proud club that's down on it's luck with a coach who's struggling to get the most out of his men. (Except of course the subplot about The Club President punching a stripper, no-one's alleging anything of that sort here).
In that great example of Australian footy machismo, The Club coach Laurie Holden is slammed by all quarters for refusing to move his captain Danny Rowe off a hot player (Wilson) while The Club is copping a thrashing. Rowe has a stinker, The Club loses the match and Wilson is the best player on the ground. When talking with head-case rookie superstar Geoff Hayward, Holden describes his thinking in the following manner:
GEOFF: I don't want to play the devil's advocate, but you've done some pretty bad coaching yourself lately.
LAURIE: Such as?
GEOFF: Such as not shifting Danny off Wilson last week. He was getting thrashed.
LAURIE: I know.
GEOFF: Wilson was leaving him for dead.
LAURIE: (irritably) I know.
GEOFF: Then why didn't you shift him?
LAURIE: Because he was desperate to keep trying. He's never been that badly beaten before. I know it was the wrong thing to do but Danny's been the backbone of my team for eight years and I felt I owed him something. Besides, I doubt whether there's anyone in the team who could've done any better.
Matthew Knights and Laurie Holden both fell victim to the Dawson Quandary – when to move an overmatched player off a hot superstar. We can assume Knights was aware of Hocking struggling. And they're not the only two coaches to have been pilloried for arriving at the Quandary: Hawk Zac Dawson was left to stand a rampant Anthony Rocca in 2006 and the Pie forward kicked 10. Dawson, 19 at the time, weighed approximately 80 kilograms opposed to the 105 kegs sported on the 29 year-old Rocca frame. That decision and subsequent media frenzy nearly caused the young full-back's career to disintegrate on the spot and it's only in the last eighteen months that he's found redemption after barely sniffing the Senior side again at Hawthorn and finally finding his way to St. Kilda. His coach, Alastair Clarkson, said he left Dawson there to get experience; but you've gotta ask yourself when this becomes simply flogging a dead horse.
Do we hang Knights immediately or congratulate him for sticking to his guns and his show of faith? I guess it depends on his assessment of “where” Essendon are. From all accounts, Knights won the top job in 2007 with an optimistic view of the Bombers' playing list that appealed to the coaching search panel; his assessment was that major changes wouldn't be needed in order for Bombers success. His direct opponent for the job, current Richmond boss Damien Hardwick, deigned it necessary to blowtorch most of the playing group and build from scratch. In essence, the decision came down to Knights' short-term optimism and the promise of results within two-to-three years versus Hardwick's crystal ball pleading youth development and therefore future hope.
I'm not a big fan of fan-pressure forcing out coaches, but fans basically demand one of two things: results or hope. Results speak for themselves – games won, and a team in the throes of competing for a title. Hope for the future is probably an even easier “sell”: fans can stomach the word “rebuilding” for two seasons if the promise of results is there – even three years in some cases. But as the proof of the pudding is in the eating, results must follow hope and if wins are scarce after year three the coach finds himself in very warm liquid. Knights won the Senior Coach job promising results, not hope, and as such his (let's be generous) choice to leave Hocking on LeCras is either naive or negligent coaching. If, however, the Dons' recent form downturn has shunted this year from the “win now” category to“development” his decision is less damning.
I'm not privy to the goings-on behind closed doors at Windy Hill and so, like the rest of the world, I have no idea if 2010 is now pigeonholed under “results”, “hope” or “strange and cruel hybrid leaving the fans and media second guessing everything the coach says and does”. I hope for Knights' sake that Essendon FC knows this year's category: because if the players, administration and coach aren't on the same page the only way this can end is with an “I-told-you-so” smile on the face of Damien Hardwick and a dole-queue grimace on that of Knights.