Friday, March 15, 2013

The Arsenal debate: Vermaelen, Koscielny or Mertesacker?

That Arsenal won in Munich on Wednesday is no real surprise: it has been a recent disturbing tendency of the Gooners to perform valiantly in causes already cast unto the wind. 

However, the Highbury/Emirati gallantry has provided pundits on the Guardian’s Football Weekly podcast with more ammunition for the argument that the North Londoners’ best central defensive partnership doesn’t actually include their captain, Belgian Thomas Vermaelen.

We can eliminate the comical Johan Djourou and (perhaps Wenger’s worst-ever signing) Sebastien Squillaci from real First Team contention.  The discussion revolves around the best combination of the short, but effective freelancer Vermaelen; the peg-legged but smart and aerially-proficient Per Mertesacker; and jack of all trades Laurent Koscielny.

The table below examines how effective each Arsenal pairing has been so far in season 2012-13.  Every match the Gunners have played since the first EPL match of the season has been taken into account (and points awarded for victories/draws in Cups competitions). 

Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is interesting, but what they hide is vital.  This table is taken in complete isolation, and disregards the defensive capabilities of the ‘keeper and other players.  However, it still makes for interesting reading.  As the Guardian’s analysts tacitly decided, perhaps the Arsenal captain’s favoured position may not actually be best for the team.

Central defensive combination
Games
Avg Conceded
Avg Scored
Wins
Draws
Losses
Points/ game
Vermaelen/Mertesacker
22
1.09
1.68
11
3
8
1.64
Koscielny/Mertesacker*
11
1.27
2.00
5
5
0
1.82
Koscielny/Vermaelen
6
1.67
2.00
2
1
3
1.17
Koscielny/Djourou
1
5.00
7.00
1
0
0
3.00
Vermaelen/Squillaci
1
2.00
1.00
0
0
1
0.00
Mertesacker/Jenkinson
1
0.00
1.00
1
0
0
3.00
*For many of the eleven matches in which Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker partnered each other, Vermaelen was deployed at left-back as either first-choice or in the event of injury/Andre Santos.

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