Let's take a brief break from the World
Cup to talk about a transfer rumour involving two players currently playing (or
riding the pine) in Brazil.
It has recently been suggested that
Manchester United boss Louis van Gaal has decided to bid for Arsenal defender Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian, who had a fine start to his Arsenal career, is now
Arsene Wenger's "emergency defender", used most often when Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker or Kieren Gibbs are unavailable (for Gibbs, read: injured).
At 28 and fending off Jan Vertonghen for his place
beside Vincent Kompany at the heart of Belgium's defence, it’s logical to
assume that Vermaelen wants first-team football; United certainly have money to burn that may raise his earnings above what the Gunners are willing (or
able) to offer.
However, the rumour suggests Vermaelen’s current manager Arsene Wenger wants a return that includes a transfer fee and one of Tom Cleverley or Chris Smalling.
While possible, it’s unlikely that van Gaal would sanction
such a move for several reasons. Both Smalling and Cleverley fit into the
coach’s modus operandi as young players malleable to his
methods; the Englishman is also four years younger than his supposed upgrade. Smalling is also United’s
emergency right-back, while both midfielder and defender are English and therefore come at a
FFP-induced premium.
While data rarely drives a transfer, especially in the case of Louis van Gaal, let's examine why the numbers don't like a Smalling-for-Vermaelen swap straight up – let alone with a
transfer fee involved. Most of the data
that follows comes from a pilot project that tracks each player's individual plus/minus throughout the course of the season.
