World Cup Predictions: Leading Wicket Taker

In a seven-part series, our own Matthew Wood goes head to head with Subash Jayaraman of The Cricket Couch and Dave Siddall of World Cricket Watch to send down their predictions for this year's World Cup.

Matt Wood

A quick glance at the stats from the last couple of World Cups reveals that the leading wicket taker has taken on average about 2.5 wickets per innings. In 2007 it was the indomitable Glenn McGrath while in South Africa Chaminda Vaas managed the most scalps. With that in mind, only a few of the bowlers on display this tournament have any chance of approaching those numbers: Malinga, Steyn, Brett Lee (involuntary shudder), Zaheer Khan and Pakistani pair Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul. Others may have the talent, discipline or unpredictability but these are the bowlers who are both in-form and better suited for the conditions available. They’re all pacemen, yes, but I remain unconvinced that any of the spin bowlers on show will be more than defensive stoppers. Lee will almost assuredly break down, so we can eliminate him; Pakistan produce the expected as often as they do adult film stars; leaving Khan, Malinga and the best fast man in the world, Dale Steyn. Steyn’s consistency sees him more likely to take a “Michelle” against a minnow, but Malinga’s slingers can be too much for even the best batsman to face – let’s go with the Sri Lankan.

WC Leading Wicket Taker Prediction: Lasith Malinga

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Subash Jayaraman

There are couple of requirements for players to be featured in the leading wicket taker column. 1) Their respective teams need to make a deep run in the tournament 2) Face as many weak opposition teams as possible in the early round. Chaminda Vaas was the top wicket taker of the world cup in 2003 based on the fact that he took 12 of his 23 wickets against Bangladesh, Kenya and Canada. Of the total 10 matches he played in that tournament, he took more than half his share in just 3 matches against what could be called as weak opposition.

Looking at the 2011 World Cup Schedule, Group A has more number of weaker teams (Kenya, Canada and Zimbabwe) than Group B (Netherlands and Ireland). Bangladesh cannot be called a weak ODI squad anymore. It is not 2003 anymore and they are playing at home, where they have beaten New Zealand 4-0 in a recent series.

Therefore, by my hypothesis, the top wicket taker will emerge from Group A from the teams of Sri Lanka, Australia or Pakistan. Since the team has to make a deep run in the tournament and potentially play in the finals, I am more leaning towards Sri Lanka (Lasith Malinga or Muralitharan) than Australia (Brett Lee or Shaun Tait) or India (Zaheer Khan) or Pakistan (Umar Gul) or South Africa (Dale Steyn). Since Matt and David are already going for the pacers to be highest wicket takers, let me pick Muralitharan. This can be his swan song from all forms of international cricket.

WC Leading Wicket Taker Prediction: Muttiah Muralitharan

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David Siddall

The leading wicket taker in the tournament will come from a team that goes a long way in the competition. Currently if you were asked to name the best quicks in the world [excluding the likes of the Mohammads Amir and Asif] the same names would crop up time after time – Dale Steyn, Zaheer Khan, James Anderson, Morne Morkel, and Lasith Malinga. Of those names Dale Steyn is the best bowler in the world.

We mustn’t forget spin however, as it is likely to be a huge factor in the sub-continent and a determining factor in the outcome of the World Cup. I’m of the opinion that the leading wicket taker won’t be a spinner for two reasons: 1) attacking spinners are thin on the ground with Muttiah Muralitharan, Graeme Swann and Harbajhan Singh seemingly the only exceptions and 2) spinners tend to bowl in those languid middle overs where consolidation and keeping the scoreboard ticking over are the main concerns for the batsmen.

Thinking strategically about the aforementioned quicks and every angle explored leads to one figure being the leading wicket taker in the tournament. Lasith Malinga might not be the best bowler in the world, but unlike Dale Steyn he is head and shoulders above his fellow countrymen’s pacemen. When you also consider that he is the finest exponent of “death” bowling in one day cricket with a wicked yorker and a devilishly disguised slower ball, the justification for the slinger becomes even more apparent. A strike rate of 32.9 isn’t half bad either.

WC Leading Wicket Taker Prediction: Lasith Malinga

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Tough as ... err... Balsa? Australian World Cup side needs variety

While Australia demolishes England in a meaningless seven match post-Ashes One-Day series, unexpected hope rises in a cricketing public. The World Cup is approaching and our boys - missing half the starters - are dismantling guys who embarrassed us in the Tests. Perhaps Australia really are a show to defend their World Cup honours? I mean, surely it could be worse? Absolutely it could - Beau Casson could wear a Baggy Green again. Or Chris Matthews. Or cricket's perpetual punchline Scott Muller.

But the World Cup squad of fifteen (link) doesn't exactly say "locked in", does it?

The team currently decimating the Englishmen comprises the bulk of the World Cup squad. What's concerning is it's attack, which offers about as much variety as a monk's dinner. By relying on One-Day luminaries Lee, Tait, Bollinger and Zoolander Johnson, the team has opted for pace over spin. The supporting all-round roles are filled the the team's hirsuteness bookends, man-beast John Hastings and waxer extraordinaire Shane Watson. Steve Smith also gets a guernsey but his spin bowling is on par with Cameron White's for penetration so is likely to be employed mostly as a low order pinch-hitter.

The incumbent spinner is Nathan Hauritz, the patient girlfriend to which CA selectors always return after stupid flings with the new blondes on the Domestic scene with big knockers: this time, Tasmanian Spin Bimbo Xavier Doherty. Without Hauritz - which due to injury may happen - Australia is likely to field a lineup of spinners as imposing as an mouse's member on the spin-friendly subcontinental pitches.

The pace attack looks threatening, boasting three of the world's fastest bowlers, each of whom is more - sorry - only effective in the shorter formats. Leaving behind versatility, what's most concerning is the fragility of the squad. At least five serious injury risks project as first-choice, as all of Lee, Tait, Bollinger, Hauritz, Ponting and Mike Hussey are either extremely injury-prone or under a cloud going into the tournament. The spearheads, Tait and Lee, despite being walk up starts for all or most of Australia's 115 ODIs since 2007, have a combined seventy appearances, due mostly to injury (Tait 26, Lee 44). While Johnson's physical capability is apparent, "Doug the Rug" has struggled with injury and form for the better part of six months now. Though none resemble Bruce Reid in height, ability or movement in the air, the Curse which struck him down appears to have targeted the Aussie fast men.

This World Cup is in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh which by default means the toughest conditions in which cricket can be played. Lee's history of meltdowns in India and Bollinger's last six months don't inspire confidence in the attack; Tait remains unable to bowl more than sixty deliveries a year without his body crumbling into dust like at the end of an Indiana Jones movie. To preserve their spearheads, the spear-handle is going to have to bowl quite a bit, meaning Watson, Hastings, David Hussey and Michael Clarke can all expect to roll the arm over quite a bit, an each-way bet as to what comes out: flowers or fertilizer.

Apart from Hastings, Australia doesn't really sport too many genuine all-rounders but just batsmen who can bowl if needed. And their ability with the six-stitcher may just determine how successful Australia's World Cup will be.