Euro 2012: Easier to win than the World Cup?

Conventional wisdom suggests the European Football Championships are harder to win than the World Cup. There's reason behind this: despite increased familiarity with staff and styles, all teams come from a strong FIFA confederation and this means fewer easy wins and more Groups of Potential Fatality.

We can take a look at the final set of FIFA World Rankings before a tournament to suggest the quality of each field. These rankings are about as foolproof as a Bond villain's plan or FIFA's internal governance, but they are still the best mathematical evaluation available. (Even still, I won't ever believe the United States were ever the fourth-best team in the world). Also, given they are chundered out by computer according to wonderfully complex formulae each month, in theory they are equally uneven.

The table below suggests how powerful each tournament since the start of the millennium has been, using average and median FIFA ranks as a guide. A low average suggests a stronger field, a low median suggests that more of the world's elite teams took part.

Tournament	Teams	Average FIFA rank	Median FIFA rank	Alleged Easybeat
Euro 2000	16	15.3	12.5	Slovenia, rank 45
2002 World Cup	32	21.8	21.5	China, rank 50
Euro 2004	16	20.8	17	Latvia, rank 52
2006 World Cup	32	33.5	24.5	Togo, rank 61
Euro 2008	16	20.4	11	Austria, rank 101
2010 World Cup	32	26.0	19.5	North Korea, rank 105
Euro 2012	16	16.6	11.5	Poland, rank 65

As you can see, the average FIFA rank for the past two World Cups has raised markedly as more nations outside FIFA's top 20 obtained qualification. This of course doesn't take into account home-field advantage, which will surely serve Poland well in this tournament. These numbers are also somewhat swayed: each team wins games in order to qualify, which in turn boosts their world ranking.

According to FIFA's boffins, Euro 2012 could be the strongest tournament since Euro 2000.

Spain's Second XI worthy of top 10 ranking

While watching David Silva and Spain dismantle a dogged and compact Scotland on Wednesday, it struck me: this was hardly Spain's best outfit and they were dominating.

Silva cemented his bona fides as one of the top half-dozen players in world football and Spain, with a team featuring second-choice players like Thiago Alcantara, Jordi Alba and Santi Cazorla, passed Scotland into an uneasy submission. The Scots, bless 'em, tried hard but the Spaniards seemed at times to be playing not just another game, but on another plane.

The players who didn't feature on Tuesday - Torres, Casillas, Xabi Alonso, Iniesta, Mata - mean it's now apparent that Spain's second XI could be one of the world's ten best international outfits. They are helped by a healthy youth league and a relative dearth of great opposition: realistically, only the Netherlands and Germany are able to hold a candle to the Spaniards. Brazil and Argentina today only resemble their most terrifying best.

courtesy: sparklingchelsea.wordpress.com

The FIFA world rankings (hardly the greatest indicator, but the only one we've got) suggest the world's top ten sides are Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, England, Croatia and Argentina.

In living up to their position description as confusing and nonsensical, the FIFA rankings have Croatia ranked ninth and Greece sitting in eleventh position. This is in spite of both squads finding themselves in the same qualifying group for Euro 2012; a group from which Greece qualified and Croatia now face a tricky playoff tie with Turkey.

We can, however, suggest this is a fairly accurate representation of the best teams in world football.

Were Spain's Second XI to feature in the FIFA rankings, they'd come up against three great teams (Germany, the Netherlands and Uruguay), two inconsistent ones (the other South Americans) and four eminently beatable squads, each with major weaknesses. Apart from perhaps a perceived weakness in central defence, Spain II play a similar brand of football to their first-choice brethren, have pace in abundance and, as they showed on Tuesday, discipline.

Using Spain's favoured 4-2-3-1, the second furia roja would probably include: Valdes; Alba, Jose Enrique, Alvaro Arbeloa and Raul Albiol; Thiago, Javi Martinez, Cesc Fabregas, Santi Cazorla and Pedro; and Fernando Llorente.

Wow.

The argument could be made that this team also features some of the best players dozen players in Spain. In this lineup Pedro plays for the "magoos", yet started in their World Cup triumph last year - superseded by Mata and Silva. Valdes' recent success in head-to-head battles with Casillas now invites, rather than discourages, comparison between the two. Fabregas is shuttled out of the Spain midfield (as with club) by players comfortably in the World's top five. Spain has played better recently when Llorente - rather than Torres - has led the line.

This club may even trouble the the vaunted Spain first team. The Spain Second XI are, on paper, a better team than Croatia, Portugal and even Italy. Place Spain v2.0 in any one of the Euro 2012 qualifying groups (and back them with suitable squad depth) and they at least make the playoffs from each. It's probably also the case that they'd slice England to pieces also.

The simile used most with Spain (and Barcelona) is "death by one thousand cuts". Perhaps a more appropriate metaphor may be that Spanish football is at present drowning the rest of the football world - inexorably, constrictingly and (given their outstanding Euro U-21 campaign) shows no signs of receding. All that is certain is the next wave of Spanish attacks could well overwhelm a struggling Scot, Lithuanian or even Oranje. After decades of torment, La Furia Roja is certainly making up for lost time.

While going back-to-back-to-back at major tournaments is so difficult that it's spoke of in grail-like reverence, the smart money for next year's Euros is on a three-peat - perhaps simply because the difficulty of staying focused for such a period is balanced by the failure of chief rivals Germany and the Netherlands to bridge the gaping talent gap.