Bowler's Preview: the case for/against Nathan Lyon

Over the past five years, Test scores at Bellerive have steadily declined.  The last time scores of real significance were made at Hobart was during the Sri Lankans' last visit (2007/08), where Kumar Sanggakara made a chanceless 192; this followed on from forgotten man Phil Jaques' Test-best 150.  In fact, while each dismissal in 2007-08 cost 52.4 runs, this average has declined over the five-year span to it's probable nadir (18.6) during last summer's low-scoring Australian loss to New Zealand.

This reflects an increasing trend at Bellerive for encounters dominated by the flingers.  First Class matches in Hobart have been a bowler's dream this season: the last two (of three) Shield matches have ended in Innings defeats.  In both cases the losing cause failed to break 100 in their first innings.  This is reflected in the poor dismissal averages which rank amongst the worst best lowest in Australian First Class cricket this season.

Average runs per dismissal, Bellerive
Five-year Test	33.98
2012-13 First Class	23.46

When deciding at the toss whether to bat or field, the captains will take into account several factors: the pitch, the weather (probable showers), their relative strengths and whether the pitch will take spin.  Over the course of past five years' Test cricket, the evidence suggests that spin bowling isn't particularly effective for tweakers.  In fact, the best innings figures belong to Nathan Lyon who took 3/25 in seven overs against New Zealand last season; the only other figures of note are those of Simon Katich, whose chinamen captured 3/34 against Pakistan in 2009.  Indeed, spin has been responsible for only 22% of all Test wickets over the past three Bellerive Tests.

Bowling style	Total Innings	Total analysis	Average	BBI	BBM
Seam/swing/fast	41	78/2451	31.42	6/40	9/60
Off spin	11	12/475	39.6	3/25	6/126
Leg spin	4	7/428	61.1	3/189	4/245
Chinaman	2	3/44	14.67	3/34	3/44

*Total Innings ncludes the number of bowlers – ie. Should Lyon and Michael Clarke bowl in the first innings against Sri Lanka, it would count as two.  Should only Lyon bowl (last over before lunch, as is Clarke’s wont), then the figure is only 1.

The debate over whether Australia should include four fast bowlers has some merit in Hobart, but - though this was in some ways a default option given Josh "brown paper bag" Hazelwood's inexperience and Australian bowlers' propensity for injury - considering the selectors opted to play Lyon in Western Australia, he is likely to play in Tasmania.

Lyon hasn't had much experience on the Bellerive pitch; in South Australia's only First-Class game there this season he delivered only four overs for ten runs and had certified non-spinner Johan Botha preferred to him.  Although he's unquestionably Australia's best offie since Tim May, it may be that this disturbing lack of structural integrity in Australian fast men that most contributes to Lyon retaining his Test spot until retirement.

However, considering how well Tasmanian climes have responded fast bowling over this season, there is a solid argument that four fast bowlers (well, unless they're Sri Lankan quicks) could be well suited to most efficiently capture the 20 wickets required for a win.  Unfortunately in the table below we couldn't afford a separate category for straight-breakers (ie. Johan Botha), so he's lumped in with off-spinners.

Bowling style	Innings used	Total analysis	Average	BBI	BBM
Seam/swing/fast	38	94/2058	21.89	6/25	8/78
Off spin	8	6/288	48	3/88	3/88

 
  What can we draw from the information above (apart from the fact that a similar analysis for the MCG will be a bastard)?  Simply, Lyon's quote-unquote intangibles earn him a place for Australia - especially with his small sample size providing no conclusive proof that actual finger-spinners flourish or die on a relatively small ground.  However, with the combination of the low cloud that's often brought along with showers suggest that a potent pace attack is going to contribute most to success.

Why a bowler's preview?  Simple - when did you hear of a batsman being dropped because of the weather or the pitch?  Not since the days of Andrew Hilditch, which are hopefully receding into the distance.

Pitching it up: Bellerive Oval

by Balanced Sports columnist Ben Roberts

Granted the 2010-11 Ashes series will not in part be fought out on the pitch at Bellerive. We will however later this week see the the touring English XI take on Australia 'A', where a considerable number test hopefuls for both teams will seek to hold the selectors attention prior to the first test.

Bellerive is very much a forgotten ground by mainland Australian cricket followers. Whereas the general pitch characteristics of the mainland test venues may roll of the tongue from even spasmodic cricket fans, I must admit that when thinking of Bellerive I had to shrug my shoulders. Test cricket has only graced Bellerive since 1989, and since then only nine test matches have been played in total.

A cousin of mine works as part of the ground team at Bellerive so I had a good source to whom I could inquire for information on this pitch. Three main inputs provide a unique challenge for the ground team at Bellerive. Firstly, the use of rye rather than couch grass means that the pitch has to be carefully monitored as it will dry out quickly, the leaf will be left as long as possible that gives a bit for the bowlers. Secondly, adding to the challenge of keeping the pitch moist is the potential for brutal winds that will zap the moisture out at fast rate. Finally, the clay in the soil doesn't break up with use so there is generally less opportunity for spinners. This is of course unless your name is 'Shane' or 'Murali'.

Given the option, pacemen from both sides will be hoping that in the lead up to the match there is some moisture around and come the match day they are provided with still overcast conditions. A lack of moisture and stronger wind will threaten to flatten the pitch out early and gift batsman easy runs. The tests played of recent history have been characterised by big scores, this of course may also be reflective of Australia's dominance in the past 20 years and the generally weaker touring teams drawn to play against Australia at Bellerive.

Australia's finest moment at Bellerive was the 4 wicket win over Pakistan in 1999. Australia, facing a three pronged pace attack of Akram, Younis and Akhtar, recovered from being 126 for 5 to post the third highest fourth innings total of 369 for 6 and claim victory. Adam Gilchrist announced his entry into test match cricket by posting his maiden century in his second match sharing the match winning partnership with Justin Langer. On that day Pakistan’s lethal fast bowling trio toiled joylessly on a wicket that had dried throughout the match.

With the above in mind, look for England to perhaps rest its test bowling line up, aware that if conditions are not right they may toil as Pakistan did 11 years ago and stunt momentum before the first test. Australia 'A' includes genuine test prospects Khwaja and Ferguson in its batting order who will want to use the favourable conditions to really cement their places as the next in line for a test call up.