Showing posts with label bowler's preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bowler's preview. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Bowler's preview: MCG

While the first day of the Second Test between Sri Lanka and Australia at the MCG provided us with thirteen wickets for approximately 300 runs, this is no real surprise considering the way the pitch has played over the course of the past half-decade, and indeed this season.

The average first innings in Tests at the ‘G over the past five years has been slightly over 324 runs per innings, with the highest total recorded in 2009-10 when Australia recorded 4/454 against the touring Pakistanis.  Of the past nineteen innings at the G, that contest was the equal-fewest wickets lost by any one team throughout that period (11).  That several of those Pakistanis have now subsequently been sanctioned for spot-or-match fixing in no way minimises this achievement.

At Test level, the pitch has responded far better to pace than to spin.  This is probably due to a dearth of quality spin played at the MCG over the past five years: there have only been a total of 76 overs of legspin bowled at the ground at that time, of which eighteen were delivered by don’t-wannabe spinner Steve Smith – unsurprisingly for the relatively poor economy rate (E/R) of 4.11.  In fact, between Smith and Anil Kumble, leg-spinners accounted for the highest E/R for any bowling style at the ‘G as they gave up 3.8 runs per over.  That they average 20.6 in the first innings at Melbourne is purely down to Kumble’s 5/108 in 2007-08.

The same lack of leg-spinners in Shield cricket this year means that only 18 overs have been delivered in such style this season for no positive result (cumulative figures 0/66).  It’s telling that the most gifted Australian leg-spinner of his generation, Cameron White, now basically ignores his bowling to concentrate on his cavalier batting.  The pitch this season, has responded best to pace bowling: only eight wickets today have been lost to spin (all off-spin, and mostly to Glenn Maxwell), while the immortal Gary Putland has the best (two) innings match figures at the ground with 7/64 and 5/28.  This results in Shield season-best figures of 12/94.

Off-spinners are both cheaper at the ground in Tests and First Class cricket: they average a cumulative 48.63 over Test matches at the MCG and 43.13 at Shield level, while costing 2.9 and 3.6 respectively.  However, during the fourth innings of Test matches, the tweakers come into their own.  The table below shows their average strike rate (S/R) and average decrease markedly at cost to their economy:

Bowling type performance by Test Innings, MCG

Innings 1
Innings 2
Innings 3
Innings 4
Average
324.4
341.6
264.2
191





Fast bowling average
34.68
28.25
25.88
22.24
Legspin average
20.6

51

Offspin average
66.2
70.75
49.6
25.75
Chinaman average

41

32





Fast bowling E/R
3.45
2.88
3.28
2.8
Legspin E/R
3.32
4.1
4.08

Offspin E/R
2.9
2.61
2.86
3.69
Chinaman E/R

3.9

3.37





Fast bowling S/R
60.38
58.8
47.4
47.7
Legspin S/R
37.2
75


Offspin S/R
136.8
162.7
47.9
41.9
Chinaman S/R

63

57

From the table above, we can surmise that the pitch at Melbourne does exactly what the classical Test pitch should– offer something for fast bowlers on a good batting track day one, before becoming a very good deck for hitters on days two and three before degenerating into a tricky wicket on the final two days.

Has this trend been constant?  Actually, batsmanship has become much harder over the past two MCG Tests.  This is in part to a Hilfenhaus-led Indian collapse last season and a horrible Australian batting performance the year before.   Test averages have declined from a high of 41.4 to last year’s 25.6.  Sri Lanka’s ... intriguing ... batting choices yesterday are only liable to contribute further to this decline.

This is the second in our series of bowler’s previews, which should give an insight into how the pitch will play – and thoroughly dependent on the whims of selectors.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Bowler's Preview: the case for/against Nathan Lyon

Over the past five years, Test scores at Bellerive have steadily declined.  The last time scores of real significance were made at Hobart was during the Sri Lankans' last visit (2007/08), where Kumar Sanggakara made a chanceless 192; this followed on from forgotten man Phil Jaques' Test-best 150.  In fact, while each dismissal in 2007-08 cost 52.4 runs, this average has declined over the five-year span to it's probable nadir (18.6) during last summer's low-scoring Australian loss to New Zealand.

This reflects an increasing trend at Bellerive for encounters dominated by the flingers.  First Class matches in Hobart have been a bowler's dream this season: the last two (of three) Shield matches have ended in Innings defeats.  In both cases the losing cause failed to break 100 in their first innings.  This is reflected in the poor dismissal averages which rank amongst the worst best lowest in Australian First Class cricket this season.

Average runs per dismissal, Bellerive

Five-year Test
33.98
2012-13 First Class
23.46

When deciding at the toss whether to bat or field, the captains will take into account several factors: the pitch, the weather (probable showers), their relative strengths and whether the pitch will take spin.  Over the course of past five years' Test cricket, the evidence suggests that spin bowling isn't particularly effective for tweakers.  In fact, the best innings figures belong to Nathan Lyon who took 3/25 in seven overs against New Zealand last season; the only other figures of note are those of Simon Katich, whose chinamen captured 3/34 against Pakistan in 2009.  Indeed, spin has been responsible for only 22% of all Test wickets over the past three Bellerive Tests.

Bowling style
Total Innings
Total analysis
Average
BBI
BBM
Seam/swing/fast
41
78/2451
31.42
6/40
9/60
Off spin
11
12/475
39.6
3/25
6/126
Leg spin
4
7/428
61.1
3/189
4/245
Chinaman
2
3/44
14.67
3/34
3/44
*Total Innings ncludes the number of bowlers – ie. Should Lyon and Michael Clarke bowl in the first innings against Sri Lanka, it would count as two.  Should only Lyon bowl (last over before lunch, as is Clarke’s wont), then the figure is only 1.

The debate over whether Australia should include four fast bowlers has some merit in Hobart, but - though this was in some ways a default option given Josh "brown paper bag" Hazelwood's inexperience and Australian bowlers' propensity for injury - considering the selectors opted to play Lyon in Western Australia, he is likely to play in Tasmania.

Lyon hasn't had much experience on the Bellerive pitch; in South Australia's only First-Class game there this season he delivered only four overs for ten runs and had certified non-spinner Johan Botha preferred to him.  Although he's unquestionably Australia's best offie since Tim May, it may be that this disturbing lack of structural integrity in Australian fast men that most contributes to Lyon retaining his Test spot until retirement.

However, considering how well Tasmanian climes have responded fast bowling over this season, there is a solid argument that four fast bowlers (well, unless they're Sri Lankan quicks) could be well suited to most efficiently capture the 20 wickets required for a win.  Unfortunately in the table below we couldn't afford a separate category for straight-breakers (ie. Johan Botha), so he's lumped in with off-spinners.

Bowling style
Innings used
Total analysis
Average
BBI
BBM
Seam/swing/fast
38
94/2058
21.89
6/25
8/78
Off spin
8
6/288
48
3/88
3/88
 
  What can we draw from the information above (apart from the fact that a similar analysis for the MCG will be a bastard)?  Simply, Lyon's quote-unquote intangibles earn him a place for Australia - especially with his small sample size providing no conclusive proof that actual finger-spinners flourish or die on a relatively small ground.  However, with the combination of the low cloud that's often brought along with showers suggest that a potent pace attack is going to contribute most to success.

Why a bowler's preview?  Simple - when did you hear of a batsman being dropped because of the weather or the pitch?  Not since the days of Andrew Hilditch, which are hopefully receding into the distance.