Villa's Benteke the Premier League's key man

Christian Benteke might be the most important player in the English Premiership. 

The forward's strengths (especially physically) by far outweigh any weaknesses: the deadline-day signing from Genk is fast, accurate, remarkably powerful and has an incredible happy knack of finding space in the box. 

Any questions as to Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert starting “his man” over the similarly-named Darren Bent have been made completely redundant.  Benteke has goaled 13 times this term and assisted four more scores, making him responsible for over half of Villa’s goals during 2012-13 – 54.8% to be precise. 

While numbers usually tell only half the tale, this figure is nonetheless impressive: of all players with more than ten goals this term, he ranks alongside the likes of Celta Vigo’s Iago Aspas (59.25%), Messi (59.1%), Zlatan (56.6%), Atalanta’s Erik Lamela (53.3%) as players who contribute to over 50% of their club’s goals.

However important as his goals have been, his physical and implied presence has had more of an impact in this year’s relegation struggle.  In Villa’s recent wins against fellow battlers QPR and Reading, he has not only scored goals but routinely drawn multiple defenders, thereby allowing striking partners Gaby Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann the freedom they need to score.

Quite simply, he has been the difference between Villa’s recent wins against their struggling brethren.  None of Reading, Wigan Athletic or QPR have a player who demands the same respect from defenders and tacticians alike.  And with the amount of money staked upon Premiership survival, this probably makes him the most irreplaceable man in the league.

Three things: Chelsea may regret Lukaku absence

Three things we noticed from the EPL this week:

Chelsea might regret loaning out Romelu Lukaku

Romelu Lukaku arrived at Stamford Bridge before last season at a significant cost: a reported 18 million pounds from Belgian club Anderlecht. Barely eighteen when he arrived, the boy-mountain spent most of last season on the bench and hated it. Despite impressing on the Blues' pre-season US tour, Lukaku found himself “gaining first-team experience” at West Brom this year and the Blues look like they may regret his temporary departure. His spell in the Midlands has so far been telling.

The Blues pulled out a 1-0 win against an uncompromising Stoke City at home on Saturday where none of their myriad new tricksy attacking types were able to really trouble the brutally efficient Stoke defense. While this new look can produce some wonderful football, the Blues appear to be missing a second look.

If those short-ish types aren't firing in the goals then the club – like the team they've attempted to emulate, Barcelona – seems to lack offensive versatility. Barca had to pay heavily to get Zlatan Ibrahimovic, as Chelsea did for the talented Lukaku; it costs money for big, strong and skilled. Perhaps with their dearth of options, it's time to explore what Lukaku can create for the Stamford Bridge unit.

Arsenal are looking good

Despite needing a late goal from Laurent Koscielny to snatch a draw, the Gunners played impressively at the Etihad Stadium. Champions Manchester City were penned back time and again by a quality combination of youth and experience; indeed, they may not have scored themselves if not for a mistake by third-string goalkeeper Vito Mannone.

Lukas Podolski, while not scoring bagfuls, has been impressive while Gervinho, not new signing Olivier Giroud, may eventually be the cetnre-forward to replace Robin van Persie.

Key to this solid start has been the central defensive partnership of Per Mertesacker and Koscielny. Only weeks ago we were suggesting Mertesacker's greatest contribution may come as stability from the bench, but he's been the Premiership's outstanding centre-back throughout the first four games and the club hardly missed resident Belgian Thomas Vermaelen.

Aston Villa – relegation fodder?

Maybe Paul Lambert began drinking his own Kool-Aid, but the world's most boring man may have bitten off more than he could chew in Birmingham. Even though last weekend provided some encouraging signs, Aston Villa struggled mightily in their 4-1 defeat to the defensively-inept Southampton. This year, Lambert just doesn't have the talent to work with in order to avoid a relegation battle.

This season's reinforcements have mostly come from lower divisions, like Matthew Lowton who only months ago was playing in League One. Although they may end up becoming quality players, these lower-tier recruits have acclimatise to the Big Show. After shedding most of the high-earners from their wage bill, Villa appear shorn of quality all over the park – comparing their squad from now to five years ago is simply amazing.

Unless you're Roberto Martinez, you can't sell your best players each year and expect to maintain your Premiership status. Hang on – now their constant inquiries as to his availability suddenly makes more sense.

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

The Cost of Promotion to the Premiership

In the wake of some silly spending by Sven-Goran Eriksson and Leicester City as well as pre-season predictions of doom for the three English Premiership newcomers this season, it's worth taking the time to examine just how much it costs to contend in England's top division.

To do so, we can evaluate how much it costs to buy players needed to finish in the Championship's automatic promotion positions or win through via the Playoffs. Please note that these figures were assembled using a variety of websites and sources. They may be 100% accurate, but the likelihood is that they are as close to accurate as can be found online or without detailed knowledge of a club's inner workings.  When a transfer was marked as "undisclosed", we used the last rumoured price - which often preceded the actual deal by days or hours.  These aren't obviously meant to be definite guides but ballpark figures.

Player salaries - generally for all these teams quite manageable - and loan players have not been included.  D.J. Campbell, who has agreed a move to QPR that is yet to be confirmed, is.

Key: K = thousand, M = million, F = free transfer, Y = graduated club's youth academy, N = nominal fee. All figures in pounds.

Queens' Park Rangers

2010-11 Position: First in Championship, automatic promotion.

Academy Graduates: 4

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for midfielder Alejandro Faurlin (2009)

Goalkeepers: R. Cerny (F), P. Kenny (750K), E. Putnins (Y) - total ₤750K

Defenders: M. Connolly (1M), D. Gabbidon (F), K. Gorkss (250K), F. Hall (700K), C. Hill (F), B. Orr (500K), P. Ramage (F), D. Shittu (F) - total ₤2.45M

Midfielders: M. Doughty (Y), A. Bruno (Y), A. Buzsaky (500K), S. Derry (F), H. Ephraim (800K), A. Faurlin (3.5M), M. Harriman (Y), J. Mackie (500K), P. Vaagen Moen (F), T. Smith (1.5M), A. Taarabt (1.5) - total ₤8.3M

Forwards: J. Bothroyd (F), P. Agyemang (350K), H. Helguson (1M), R. Hulse (800K), A. Pellicori (F), D.J. Campbell (1.25M) - total ₤3.4M

Total: ₤14.9 million.

% of total spent this summer: 8.39%

Norwich City

2010-11 Position: Second in Championship, automatic promotion

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤2.8 million for striker Steve Morison (2011)

Goalkeepers: J. Ruddy (100K), D. Rudd (Y)

Defenders: R. Martin (250K), A. Drury (500K), Z. Whitbread (350K?), L. Barnett (750K), E. Ward (F), M. Tierney (275K) - total ₤2.125M.

Midfielders: B. Johnson (F), A. Crofts (F), A. Surman (1.45M), W. Hoolahan (250K), D. Fox (F), E. Bennett (1.3M), K. Smith (Y), S. Lappin (100K), A. McNamee (250K), S. Hughes (F) - total ₤3.35M

Forwards: S. Morison (2.8M), J. Vaughan (2.5M), S. Jackson (600K), G. Holt (400K), A. Pilkington (2M), C. Martin (Y), A. Wilbraham (100K) - total ₤8.4M.

Total: ₤13.975 million.

% of total spent this summer: 61.54%

Swansea City

2010-11 Position: Third in Championship, defeated Nottm Forest & Reading in playoffs

Academy Graduates: 3

Highest fee paid for current player: ₤3.5 million for forward Danny Graham (2011)

Goalkeepers: Y. Makabu Ma Kalambay (F), D. Cornell (Y), J. Moreira (1.5M?) - total ₤1.5M

Defenders: A. Rangel (N), G. Monk (F), A. Tate (F), N. Taylor (F), A. Williams (400K)

Midfielders: M. Gower (F), K. Agustien (F), J. Allen (Y), D. Cotterill (600K), N. Dyer (400K), S. Sinclair (500K), A. Richards (Y), A. Orlandi (F), L. Britton (400K), F. Bodde (85K), W. Routledge (2M) - total ₤3.985M

Forwards: L. Moore (850K), S. Dobbie (F), D. Graham (3.5), C. Beattie (600K), L. Lita (1.75M) - total ₤6.7M

Total: ₤12.185M

% of total spent this summer: 67.71% 

QPR's Adel Taarabt.

Lambert engineers Norwich City's Premiership promotion

How much credit a manager can take for a club's results finds its definition with Norwich City boss Paul Lambert. Yesterday, his Canaries defeated Portsmouth 1-0 away to clinch promotion to the Premiership. In doing so, they secured their second successive promotion, the first time such a feat has occurred since the Premiership's bourgeousie nouveau riche Manchester City did so in 2000.

Although the former Scotland international, now regarded as English management's brightest of bright young things, won the European Cup as a player with Borussia Dortmund and had a storied career at Celtic, he is best known south of the border now for his exploits in East Anglia having helmed the club to it's highest point in eight years after joining while at it's nadir.

He took the reins after the first week of the 2009-10 League One season, a season which saw Norwich City in the third tier for the first time in forty-nine years and after a match which saw Norwich thumped 1-7 before their own fans at Carrow Road by Colchester United. Lambert managed Colchester that day and was appointed to succeed Bryan Gunn, who fell on his sword after the heaviest defeat in Canary history. His first task was to stem the haemmorhage and then focus on promotion.

Rather than subscribe to dour play, he utilised a 4-4-2 Diamond formation based around the attacking play of Grant Holt and Wes Hoolahan. While the season started slowly - in late September they sat in fourteenth position with only two wins and four draws from nine - the Canaries suddenly began a rampage with sixteen wins and two draws from nineteen matches, planting them firmly atop the League One table. They ended the season nine points clear of Leeds United as Champions, with a goal difference 10% greater to their nearest rival's. For the last twenty rounds of the season, Norwich had occupied first position.

This year in the Championship, they've been no less spectacular. They again lead the league in Goals scored (six more than nearest rivals Cardiff) and, should the FA decide to impose a points sanction on QPR for signing Argentine midfielder Alejandro Faurlin from a third party, they may end the season as Champions again. Canadian Simeon Jackson's late-season form surge helped Holt secure the goals that led to vital wins time and again, while the Canaries are a much fitter outfit and more financially stable. What cash crises have plagued them in the past should, with adept fiscal management, be things of the past.

Norwich City's achievements are so heartwarming because their initial expectations for the season consisted of no more than staying up. Now, like Blackpool before them, they will take on perhaps Europe's most intense league. They'll do so boasting a squad with a combined total of 38 games of Premiership experience and only 26 EPL starts. Twenty of those starts belong to three defenders Rob Edwards, Elliot War and Leon Barnett. Several of their number, including their captain Holt, begun their careers in non-league football. For them to gel so wonderfully for one man pays homage to his motivation and tactics.

For years, pundits asked of success if it's the players, the coaches, or even the shoes. There's no doubt that a upgrade in manager - or even just a change of tune - can make a serious difference to a club's performance: Inter Milan crept up the table when Rafael Benítez was displaced with little player turnover. This isn't to say that Benítez is a bad manager - a Champions' League title says he's not - but that he either assessed the situation poorly or wasn't able to win over the dressing room with his motivational or tactical style. Where Rafa failed with big club, Lambert has succeeded in spades with a smaller one. With only moderate financial backing, he has orchestrated one of the key feats of this nascent footballing decade.

For that he should be congratulated.

Photo courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk