EPL: Where the goals come from

"Attacking midfielders" - eg. Samir Nasri or Adel Taarabt - categorized as forwards.

Click image to enlarge.

The table above describes where each team relied upon for scoring in last season's English Premier League.  For example, league Champions Manchester United scored 73.08% of their goals through their forwards - a corps including league-high scorer Dimitar Berbatov, Javier Hernandez and Wayne Rooney.  That they were in the bottom three for goals from midfielders stands testament to the age of last season's key players Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs.

It is interesting to note that clubs noted for a passing game - such as Wigan or at times West Brom - were balanced out for goals from midfield by clubs such as Birmingham, who simply didn't have anyone outside central midfielder Craig Gardner on whom they could rely to hit the net with regularity.  It is of course no surprise to see that clubs who required set pieces to score (I'm looking at you Stoke City) had higher rates of goals scored by defenders.  

Given defenders' propensity scoring from corner and free kick situations, we can infer that with the exception of Birmingham, the relegated teams last season had extreme difficulty scoring from set pieces as West Ham managed only 7% of their goals from defenders, while Blackpool bottomed out of the division at just under 5.5%.

A large difference can be seen in the promoted teams.  While Cities Norwich and Swansea both prefer to attack with the ball on the ground, QPR can't ever be mistaken for a team of Xavis.  Manager Neil Warnock's M.O. is to get the ball to Adel Taarabt at all costs, who then attempts to create havoc.  This is displayed in him creating or scoring 47% of all QPR's goals last term.  A simple reason for them being my pick to go down - they, like Charlie Adam and Blackpool last year just don't have enough diversified offensive firepower.

Survival of the fittest (wealthiest?)

Poetic - sometimes, if we're feeling really good. Evocative? Occasionally. Artistic - hardly. But as we mentioned on Wednesday, the graphic below is about as artistic as Balanced Sports get.

click graphic to enlarge

It plots the survival rates of teams promoted to the Premiership across the past decade and tells a stark tale. While Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham have survived - some would even say thrived - at the top level, the tales of greatest success are to be found in the early part of the past decade when they were joined by Manchester City, Portsmouth, West Ham and Wigan in establishing themselves as Premier League entities.

Of 30 teams promoted, thirteen have gone straight back down.

Elimated after	1 Year	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Teams	13	6**	1*	2*	1*	1	2*	0	0	1*	3***

* Denotes number of teams still in Premier League.

A "Survival Analysis" on such a small sample size would be ineffective given the group loses nearly 50% of it's members after a first year relegation. But were we to examine how many clubs had a five-year survival rate, exactly one promoted club in three stays in the division for five years or more. That means of the 21 teams who could have been in the Premier League for five years by this season (ie. all those teams promoted 2007 or before), seven have survived that length of time.

However, should we withdraw those clubs arriving B.R. (before Roman (Abramovich), who for better or worse changed football forever with his petro-roubles) - that number drops slightly to 26.67%. However, this also includes the recently relegated clubs West Ham United and Portsmouth, who nearly bankrupted themselves with exorbitant wages, the global financial crisis, multiple court appearances and other sundry expenses.

This proves once again that Stoke manager Tony Pulis is correct in his thinking: that three seasons of consolidation should be enough to establish oneself.  With prudent investment - leading to crucial squad refreshment - Premier League status can be retained.  It's all so simple, isn't it?

Not really.  A team must make the choice to thrive and perhaps risk financial crisis (cf. Portsmouth - one FA Cup for debt so large it makes Greece smirk) or simply enjoy an EPL existence, like current relegation favourites Wigan Athletic.  The chasm between first and second divisions hasn't been this great in some time, if ever.  

Even the glory days of Promotion at the turn of the millennium weren't as straightforward as it would seem.  While Bolton Wanderers operated on a shoestring and Sam Allardyce's Route-1 football, Fulham and Manchester City have both benefited from the largesse of a financial benefactor.  As Everton's Bill Kenwright would attest, it's no longer enough to just get to the league and try your chances. 

The two promotion successes of recent years - Sunderland and Stoke City - followed the same model; backed by owners Ellis Short and Peter Coates' combination of fiscal prudency and healthy hip pockets. Along with Wolves, whose finances are also healthy, this trio look likely to maintain this one-in-three average of promoted sides remaining in the division at the expense of smaller clubs and hamstrung owners.

English Premier League Season Preview, part 2

Click here for part one of our Premier League season preview.

Newcastle: New beginnings, or same old same old?

More than any other club, the fortunes of Newcastle United depend on their summer signings: Sylvain Marveaux, Yohan Cabaye, Demba Ba and this season's "like a new signing", Hatem Ben Arfa. The dressing room culture remains awful - as evidenced by Jose Enrique and Joey Barton's apocalyptic tweets - while one wonders if the Magpies have leaders enough to inspire focus among the troops. With Mike Ashley allegedly breaking promises left and right (the last of which were to extend Kevin Nolan's contract and to re-invest all of the ₤35 million they got for Andy Carroll), it seems another troubled season on Tyneside which could see them finish in the top half or sixteenth.

Norwich: Are they already preparing for life back in the Championship?

Paul Lambert and the key Wes Hoolahan

Paul Lambert has brought in several youngsters - Anthony Pilkington, Elliott Bennett and James Vaughan - for significant monies and is banking on their exuberance and pace for a successful season. Or a double-dip into the Championship a la West Brom and the promise of a stronger resultant outfit. While the head says the Canaries will mimic Blackpool's 2011 likeability, it also says they'll probably also do well early and later slide into relegation.

QPR: How important is Adel Taarabt?

How fake is Steven Harper's hair? (Look at the photos, not the crazy political stuff) How vital is Carey Price to a successful Canadiens season? Neil Warnock's Moroccan gem Taarabt has rammed home his importance to the Rs with every magical goal, every startling dribble move and each impressive assist. He scored or created 49.3% of QPR's goals last year and with only DJ Campbell, Kieron Dyer and Jay Bothroyd reinforcing the attackers, will need to reproduce his second-tier form on the big stage. If he can't do it - or is sold to PSG as rumoured - look at QPR like Warnock's 2006-07 brave-but-unsuccessful Sheffield United squad. Only with less talent.

Stoke City: Europa League or The Next Step?

Stoke City have made few signings despite their first European bow in a dog's age. Standing pat amidst a long-time lack of 15-goal strikers, perhaps the greatest question facing gaffer Tony Pulis is whether they can compete on both home and Continental fronts. With sound investment they could push for a 7-10 EPL finish and consequent Europa League qualification but to do so with a small squad could jeopardise their chances of making continental noise this year. Plus, there's no guarantee they could achieve such a high finish, so fans should encourage Tony to mimic Fulham and give the Europa League everything. With the scarcity of talent in the lower reaches of the division and a formidable home advantage, the Potters should avoid a relegation scrap.

Swansea: Will Scott Sinclair push for England honours?

courtesy: swanseacityafc.com

With recent England calls to his U-21 brethren Jordan Henderson, Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Danny Welbeck and now Tom Cleverley, Scott Sinclair could be forgiven for feeling left out. Arguably more accomplished at club level than all but Wilshere, he's also at a much smaller team after failing to get regular chances at Chelsea. With pace to spare and clinical finishing skills, he could keep Stewart Downing, James Milner and Ashley Young looking over their shoulder on the left of England's midfield. It's unlikely, but if he plays well and moves to a bigger club or the Swans stay in the EPL, he may make his full Three Lions debut within a year or two. (Matt Jarvis has played for England for crying out loud! So have Francis Jeffers, Dave Nugent and Jay Bothroyd!)

Sunderland: Europe this season or next?

In a recent post, we argued Sunderland were pushing for Europe with the purchase of South Korean striker Ji Dong-Won, United veterans John O'Shea and Wes Brown, youngster Connor Wickham and last season's revelation Stephane Sessegnon. Craig Gardner could be the driving central force (who was supposed to be Darron Gibson) connecting an experienced backline with promising forwards. With this cast of characters, they should be aiming for a top-eight finish, perhaps replacing Fulham, Everton and Villa who finished above them last term. Bruce's squads are known for mid-season slumps, however, so this infusion of talent needs to stay "up" for the whole year.

Tottenham: Buying or selling?

With Chelsea - and, earlier, Man United - chasing wantaway midfielder Luka Modric and sums of ₤35 million bandied about, it's hard to see how Spurs' chairman Daniel Levy could resist. No matter how much 'Arry Redknapp may want him to. Modric is an excellent player who deserves Champions' League football, but also a classy guy who while wanting to leave won't kick up too much of a stink. If Spurs hold fast until January, they may be able to demand a premium (cf. Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll) if they look like missing the Champions' League next season.

West Brom: Is Shane Long worth ₤8 million?

courtesy: sportydesktops.com

Strikers jumping from Championship to Premiership for premium prices have a chequered record. Long's former Royal teammate Kevin Doyle has been a handful for Wolves but has hardly set the scoring charts alight. Dave Nugent? Pah. DJ Campbell did well for freewheeling Blackpool, but Michael Chopra failed for Sunderland. In this case, the Baggies urgently need a hitman and Long is young, quick and strong enough to do well at the Hawthorns. ₤8 million is a lot of money, but Roy Hodgson is working with a better lineup than during his first Fulham year and should have enough to avoid the relegation scrap. Long could be the player that moves WBA up a level to challenge for the top half, so is worth the cash.
(Long actually signed after publication for what's thought to be an initial 4.5 million with 3.5 million in add-ons).

Wigan: Will the beautiful football be worth it when you're in the Championship, Roberto Martinez?

Harsh, given Martinez is hamstrung by a small market, smaller attendances, a friendly-but-thrifty chairman and a spotty transfer record. For each of his seasons in Wigan, the Latics have been tipped for relegation but Martinez has kept them up playing attractive football. This year could be his undoing as Charles N'Zogbia has departed with only goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi to replace him. Twentieth position beckons and with relegation the club will lose Hugo Rodallega, Al-Habsi, the precocious James McCarthy and ... wait - who else that matters do Wigan have? The club Dave Whelan and Paul Jewell raised through four divisions could begin a slip back down.

Wolves: What's the over/under on the number of smiles Mick McCarthy will crack this season?

4.5. Mick nearly cracked a smile in the eighty-ninth minute at Old Trafford last year but wisely opted against it as United scored the winner only moments later. This was the story of the season for Wolves as they fought the good fight only to lose gut-wrenchingly many times. With his side faltering at the last hurdle so often, he couldn't be blamed for not smiling. Reinforced by Roger Johnson and the permanent signing of Jamie O'Hara, they're another team which is hard to pick: anything that's not relegation should be considered a win; above fifteenth would mark progress.

Sunderland AFC: The Blueprint for Europe?

Sunderland FC under Chairman Niall Quinn have no fear of change. Of this much we can be certain. Since Quinn led a cohort of investors in purchasing the Wearside club in 2006, the team has embarked on a remarkable remodeling of the then-recently relagated club, solidified this week as the club signed promising South Korea striker Ji Dong-won, highly-touted Ipswich forward Connor Wickham and finally - perhaps definitively - Birmingham midfielder Craig Gardner.

Deals for Manchester United trio John O'Shea, Wes Brown and Darron Gibson are still pending and the club reinforced its goalkeeper and right-side last week by signing established internationals Keiren Westwood and Sebastian Larsson on free transfer deals last week. Egyptian winger Ahmed Elmohamedy signed a permanent deal two weeks ago. Should the United deals go through - it appears the bids have been accepted by the Red Devils - the Mackems could field a side almost completely made up of new players next year. This is in keeping with manager Steve Bruce's modus operandi, as since Darren Bent's departure in January has announced the club in desperate need of remodeling.

The funds have come from player sales. Bent's January sale to Aston Villa brought in £24 million, while emergent midfielder Jordan Henderson cashed up to a reported £20 million. Sunderland - perhaps like even Arsenal now - have developed behind Shrek's pink cousin (Bruce) a reputation for developing players to on-sell. As a management philosophy, it's as practical and pragmatic as it gets - contending for the title is unrealistic, so building a solid contender for European football is a big win for a club only years removed from the embarrassment of footing the Championship.

In the five years since Quinn took control, he's brought in three managers after the demise of Mick McCarthy. Irishman McCarthy, who subsequently took Wolves to the Premiership and has kept them there for two years, was hamstrung in 2005-06 with a substandard squad which claimed a record-low Premier League points tally until Derby County's calamitous season two years later. Quinn invested unexpectedly in Roy Keane, who took Sunderland from the bottom of the Championship to the title. When Keane soured, the unlamented (and ill-suited) Ricky Sbragia was brought in, followed by Steve Bruce - another with a Man U connection.

The Wearsiders have re-tooled various times over the past five years; and though they flirted with the drop zone last season they are with Stoke city now considered the model that promoted teams should attempt to mimic should they want to retain their EPL status. It started with experience as players like Dwight Yorke, Andy Cole and Danny Higginbotham. There's a certain United theme to their squad as all the above, plus Kieren Richardson, Paul McShane, Fraizer Campbell, Phillip Bardsley plus loanees Jonny Evans and Danny Welbeck have apparated Wearside from the red half of Manchester, no doubt a direct consequence of the managers' places in United lore.

Season 2010-11 presented the Mackem support with their first top-10 finish since Peter Reid led them to seventh twice in Quinn's halcyon years partnering Kevin Phillips. The aim next season with such quality inclusions should be to replicate last season's success and perhaps sneak into Europe - Gardner and Larsson were Birmingham's shining midfielders last term, while releasing the versatile pair of Gibson and O'Shea could pay benefits. The "little and large" combination of Quinn and Phillips could have it's best long-term succession in two six-plus footers Gyan and Wickham.

Quinn, Keane and Bruce - uncompromising as during their playing days - along with majority owner Ellis Short, have assembled perhaps the most apposite mid- to long-term plan in the Premiership. However, the day by day management of Sunderland isn't above question - Bruce's skill as a tactician has been the subject of occasional scorn, while their squad still appears a striker short. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see Federico Macheda in the Northeast next season, perhaps accompanied by a tried-and-tested Assistant Manager (Ray Wilkins, anybody?). More importantly, they also need to get healthy after the end of last season was obliterated by injury.

Sunderland AFC - and subsequently Stoke City and even (perhaps) Wolves could solidify themselves as regular mid-table-or-better teams in the English Premiership. Swansea City, Norwich City and QPR would be wise to heed their example.

Image of Craig Gardner courtesy: www.goal.com. Image of Bruce/Quinn: sunderlandafc.info

What does it take to stay up?

Over the past decade, thirty clubs have been promoted from the Championship to the Premiership. Some take with them solid financial footing, others acquire it with the TV rights riches that accompany such a promotion. Occasionally, clubs will try to set out all stops to defend their territory, fearing leaking goals is a surefire route back to the second tier. Others – like Owen Coyle, Tony Mowbray and Ian Holloway – prefer to play the attractive football which got them to the Big Dance in the first place.

Within the following table, there are several “usual suspects”, clubs which have see-sawed between Premiership and League Championship - Sunderland, Birmingham and particularly that very definition of the “yo-yo team”, West Bromwich Albion. Each club has had the chance to attain multiple promotions because they’ve acquired the annoying habit of suffering relegation almost immediately after each promotion.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a disturbing trend towards clubs lasting only one or two years in the Premiership after promotion. Of course this has always been a problem for the Football League but recently this problem has become even more tricky as survival almost demands significant fiscal investment.

In the table below, recent years have provided a dearth of clubs able to survive in the big league long term: recently, Stoke City and Newcastle appear able to maintain their EPL status, but all of recent promoted teams West Brom, Wolves, Birmingham and Blackpool have had one strong season followed by a weak one (and relegation) or have failed to convince altogether.

Year	Teams Promoted	EPL Years	Points	Goals	Conceded	Result
2001-02	Fulham Blackburn Bolton	10* 10* 10*	44 46 40	36 55 44	44 51 62	Safe – 13 Safe – 10 Safe – 16
2002-03	Man City West Brom Birmingham	9* 1 4	51 26 48	47 29 41	51 65 49	Safe – 9 Drop – 19 Safe – 13
2003-04	Portsmouth Leicester Wolves	7 1 1	45 33 33	47 48 38	54 65 77	Safe – 13 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2004-05	Norwich West Brom Crystal Palace	1 2 1	33 34 33	42 36 41	77 61 62	Drop – 19 Safe – 17 Drop – 18
2005-06	Sunderland Wigan Athl. West Ham	1 6* 6*	15 51 55	26 45 52	69 52 55	Drop – 20 Safe – 10 Safe – 9
2006-07	Reading Sheff. Utd Watford	2 1 1	55 38 28	52 32 29	47 55 59	Safe – 8 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2007-08	Sunderland Birmingham Derby County	4* 1 1	39 35 11	36 46 20	59 62 89	Safe – 15 Drop – 19 Drop – 20
2008-09	West Brom Stoke City Hull City	1 3* 2	32 45 35	36 38 39	67 55 64	Drop – 20 Safe – 12 Safe – 17
2009-10	Wolves Birmingham Burnley	2* 2* 1	38 50 30	32 38 42	56 47 82	Safe – 15 Safe – 9 Drop - 18
2010-11	Newcastle West Brom Blackpool	1* 1* 1*	?	?	?	?

Perhaps the greatest key is not so much goals scored as goals conceded in the first year in the top tier. While wins may be the key to survival, it stands to reason that if clubs don’t concede, they don’t lose. If we average the number of first-year goals conceded by “long-term” survivors – those who lasted longer than two seasons – against those who went down within two years, we come up with the following:

First year stats ========	Total Conceded	Avg Conceded	Total Scored	Avg Scored
Survived >2 years	523	52.3	400	40
Relegated w/in 2 years	919	65	524	37.4

Clubs promoted in 2009 or 2010 have not been taken into account as four still battle relegation.

No club has allowed more than Bolton’s 62 goals in 2001-02 and survived for more than two years. Within the last five years that total has dropped – Sunderland conceded 59 in 2007-08 and remain in the Premiership to this day. The club who conceded the least and were still relegated within their first two years was Reading, who actually conceded the second-smallest total of first-season goals, but suffered a horrible case of “second season syndrome” after failing to adequately reinforce after a superb first year and were condemned to the Championship.

Of course life’s never as simple as statistics seem to make it. Often, yo-yo clubs simply aren’t good enough in any one aspect of the game to survive in the Premiership for any length of time (eg. Watford and Derby County).

It seems scoring goals isn’t as important as saving them. This shows that clubs who set out stall to defend – such as Stoke City – and then build upon that solidity are well-placed to survive. Clubs who favour footballing philosophies rather than pragmatism – clubs like Burnley and Blackpool – make for a happier, more watchable Premier League but seldom survive for long periods.

Image of Owen Coyle courtesy: telegraph.co.uk

Image of Tony Pulis courtesy: msn.foxsports.com

Fulham to join Stoke and Birmingham in Europa League?

As the Premiership season hurtles to a satisfying conclusion, few may be more sated than Mark Hughes. The Welshman, in his twelfth year of management, has led Fulham to tenth place so far this season, boasts a +4 Goal Difference and a fair play record which sees them firmly in contention for European football next season.

Roundly pilloried in his early days at Craven Cottage - for a combination of factors including the club's mediocre-at-best early form, his egregiousness about his time at Manchester City, an insistence that every opposing manager properly shake hands with him and finally, his not being Roy Hodgson. Using a finally-healthy forward trio of Andy Johnson, Moussa Dembele and - critically - Bobby Zamora, Hughes has masterminded the Cottagers back from a perilous December position. Fulham still struggle to win away from home, but they've solidified their spot as a mid-table Premiership team and haven't had a player sent off since 2009.

UEFA awards a Europa League position to the best-behaved club (in terms of red and yellow cards) in each of the three best-behaved European leagues, so long as that club hasn't already qualified for the tournament. While Fulham lead the Premiership's disciplinary table, they haven't assured themselves of this spot - should they commit three yellows more than second-placed Blackpool (or worse, a couple of red cards) over their last two games, they would be

lose their position. Stoke City qualified for the tournament thanks to their FA Cup success, while Birmingham's League Cup triumph could see them playing in Podgorica next year. To see Blackpool - perhaps even from the Championship - would provide the most unlikely trio of English Europa League entrants in some time.

The Whites' positive goal difference is also a boon. Alongside freescoring midfielder Clint Dempsey, their primary forward trio of Johnson, Zamora and Dembele have played a combined forty-two starts as Dembele and Zamora have spent much of the season recovering from broken legs. Each of the three has a differing, harmonising se

t of skills - Big Bobby's the target-man with eyes on an England call-up, Johnson's the archetypal goal poacher while Dembele is fleet of foot and nimble in the link-up.

This trident - thrust by Dempsey and Danny Murphy - has Fulham, Michael Jackson statue and all, sitting tenth in the league. Even after receiving an entertaining 5 -2 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, Fulham boast a goal difference of +4, the second-best figure over the past ten EPL seasons for a club finishing in that position. Should they finish lower this differential could be a Premiership record. Like many managers, Hughes is most visible in defeat. That very little has been said of him during 2011 could perhaps be the ultimate compliment that his job in London has been completed in the image of the man himself - with very little fuss.

Image: Fulham's owner, Mohammed Al-Fayed with plastic friend. Courtesy: sports.yahoo.com

The best quotes from Ian Holloway and Gordon Strachan

I don't usually just put up a list of links, but here's why today's post consists of such: while researching the piece about Stoke City and Bolton Wanderers, I happened across a page of quotes for Ian Holloway and decided to match them up against quotes from Sir Alex Ferguson's favourite (irony alert) Scot, Gordon Strachan.

Which do you think is better?

The Best Quotes from Ian Holloway

or

The Best Quotes from Gordon Strachan

Stoke/Bolton FA Cup Semi-Final: The Ugly Stepsisters meet at Wembley

While it's derby season, what could be the best game this weekend won't be the Spanish Superclasico in La Liga or the Manchester Derby in the FA Cup. It could well be the ugly stepsister FA Cup Semi-Final between two of the EPL's more unfashionable teams, Bolton Wanderers and Stoke City.

Both teams started in the Premiership strictly playing Route One football: defend, long passes to a burly centre-forward and goals scrambled from inside the box or set pieces. Both have survived, for years now, played what amounts to "The Beautiful Game for uggos". Both clubs are still somewhat prone to the long ball - Bolton centre-forward Kevin Davies has an astonishing 200 more "flick-ons" than any other player in the league - but each of their current managers came to terms with being seen among the division's thugs and set about modifying their games.

For Bolton, that came the instant Owen Coyle walked in the door after being pinched from nor'west rivals Burnley. He'd led the Clarets to promotion and had them sitting mid-table in the Premiership when he departed to take over his alma mater Bolton. He brought with him his chief tactical asset - an ability to instill respect in his players for a passing game. Where former boss Gary Megson eschewed the use of creative types like Stuart Holden, Coyle has embraced them; his biggest coup so far has been to lure Martin Petrov to the Reebok at the expiration of his Man City contract.

With Petrov and Matty Taylor on the left, Lee Chung-Yong on the right and the regrettably injured Holden between them, the new face of Wanderer football has become apparent. Their supply has even managing to excite Swedish forward Johan Elmander into his best year on English shores after being a bust as a ₤12 million signing from Toulouse three years ago. It's no coincidence Bolton occupy the EPL's seventh place and harbour hopes of Europe next year.

Neither is it random that Stoke City in twelfth position. In perhaps the best coaching job in England that no-one talks about, Tony Pulis has taken a side of Championship stalwarts and Premiership rejects from relegation certainties into a club which can challenge the best. The Welshman initially bred an uncompromising unit and then has proceeded to add elements of flair once Top Flight safety was assured. It's fitting that these flair players too, should be cast-offs: Matthew Etherington was little-used at West Ham, Jon Walters toiled at the Championship's Ipswich Town and Jermaine Pennant has cashed paycheques from nine different clubs.

Despite Pulis' best efforts, that creativity hasn't blossomed magically as Coyle's men have at Bolton and the Potters remain a team heavily reliant on set-pieces, particularly the patriot-missile-like throws of Rory Delap. This is unsurprising: rather than add flair pieces to a staid unit, it often produces more goals to scrap one tactical method and employ a more fluid style of play as has been proved by Liverpool since Kenny Dalglish usurped Roy Hodgson. Unless you're Ian Holloway, the old adage applies: once a defensive coach, always a defensive coach.

For either club, any newfound creativity or offensive spark hasn't come at the expense of their toughness or defence. It could well be a clash of the immovable object against the other immovable object, which brings back memories of the mid-00's in Australian football. During the early part of last decade, the AFL suffered from "flooding", where most - if not all - players were positioned behind the ball. This made for low-scoring games and unsettled spectators because the game wasn't free-flowing. What it did make for, however, was a spectacular contest: with very little space or time in which players could operate, skills were at a premium and with the intensity ratcheted up it begat eminently watchable, if not high-scoring, matches.

Expect the same at Wembley when Stoke and Bolton meet - a match high on intensity but low on magic, no matter how much the respective gaffers try tacitly to encourage such feats. An element of high skill in the box (or just outside) from any of Fuller, Etherington or Petrov could be enough to take the biscuits this weekend, which makes this match as interesting as any across Europe this week.

Stoke City FC: Still getting away with it

Stoke City play a real “man's man” brand of football. Always have under Tony Pulis. They belt the ball up the field, tackle hard – unfortunately at the expense of players like Aaron Ramsey – and as such players who've been earmarked as lower level players only seem to thrive at the Potteries. Success in staying up has derived from their constant focus on doing what they do well. Good thing too, as many would say that they only do one thing well. But does a one-note song provide enough to survive long-term in the Premier League?

The motto's clear the past two years: not many goals are scored, hard and physical defending and occasional sausage rolls from set pieces or good-old-fashioned-effort from their alleged class players like Ricardo Fuller and James Beattie (before he was allegedly headbutted by a naked Pulis). They tried to augment that style and offer a little more variety with last season's acquisition of Tuncay but he didn't mesh well and provided more questions than answers. This year's rumoured big buy Carlton Cole is again more tuba than flute and makes one ask if Pulis has abandoned variety to continue in Stoke's unsubtle ways.

Really, Stoke can continue down their onerous ways until it stops working. As always there will be adaptations, but it's the manager's job to balance playing to his team's strengths with diminishing the opposition's and with that in mind the players on hand means this year Stoke City are likely to display the same tactics. The paucity of talent in the EPL this year suggests the Potters should make a good fist of staying up. The risk they run by playing the same tactics without alteration is you become predictable. Predictability is fine as long as you remain good at what you do – to predictably deny goalscoring opportunities is a benefit, but if a team predictably denies goalscoring opportunities for 75 of 90 minutes then that's not so hot.

It's like when a young country guy is “on the pull”. Now, hear me out. If he has an angle that works, it's likely he's going to stay with that angle. A little tweak here and there but very few substantial changes. But as he moves to the city and tries that angle on more and more sophisticated & intelligent girls and is rebuffed, it's becomes like throwing copious amounts of crap at a wall and seeing some sticks.

Not evolving your tactics forces a team to remain at 100% concentration levels for every single minute of every single match. Execution is key: if for any one reason you don't execute your gameplan well – injuries, dips in player concentration, squad discontent or plain and simple brain-farts – your opposition takes control of the game. Stoke runs this risk for the season coming, especially without that “little bit of magic” signing Pulis hopes for. They'll be hard to beat, but unlikely to thrive unless something breaks the monotony.