A large difference can be seen in the promoted teams. While Cities Norwich and Swansea both prefer to attack with the ball on the ground, QPR can't ever be mistaken for a team of Xavis. Manager Neil Warnock's M.O. is to get the ball to Adel Taarabt at all costs, who then attempts to create havoc. This is displayed in him creating or scoring 47% of all QPR's goals last term. A simple reason for them being my pick to go down - they, like Charlie Adam and Blackpool last year just don't have enough diversified offensive firepower.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
EPL: Where the goals come from
A large difference can be seen in the promoted teams. While Cities Norwich and Swansea both prefer to attack with the ball on the ground, QPR can't ever be mistaken for a team of Xavis. Manager Neil Warnock's M.O. is to get the ball to Adel Taarabt at all costs, who then attempts to create havoc. This is displayed in him creating or scoring 47% of all QPR's goals last term. A simple reason for them being my pick to go down - they, like Charlie Adam and Blackpool last year just don't have enough diversified offensive firepower.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Where to now for Blackpool?
Blackpool's one-season jaunt in the Premiership, perhaps likely always to be record-setting, has come to a close. The Tangerines did set records, but not the ones that many predicted at the start of their top flight campaign. Blackpool boasted the smallest wage bill seen in the EPL for several years as well, capping their players' deals at a (comparatively meagre) ₤10,000 per week. They also scored a Premier League record number of goals by a relegated team and may have had one of the better records in league history of any relegated side against the division's elite.
As expected, Blackpool were eventually relegated. But they brought a spirit to the Premiership which is going to be missed and English fans are hoping that Swansea City can bring some of the same verve in their Premier League bow next year. It's arguable that while Blackpool expected this and prepared for life back in the Championship by banking much of their TV revenues and are likely to do so again with their parachute payments.
Let's take a look at how Blackpool can bounce back into the Premier League:
Blow the whole thing up and start again
Sheffield United went down this year after three years of trying to replace their Premiership squad on a bit-by-bit basis. They came out of EPL relegation in reasonable financial shape, given their West Ham settlement and reinvested part of those monies in an attempt to recapture EPL status. The gamble - like many of their signings - didn't pay off and League One now hosts Steel City derbies. With Blackpool unlikely to be able to retain their better players (Adam, Campbell, Gilks and Crainey), perhaps it's best to bid a fond farewell to the team that overachieved the last two years. Chalk them down to a beautiful, happy memory and move on.
This would allow the Seasiders to maintain their business model of not overpaying wages or transfer fees, which in turn would give manager Ian Holloway the chance to build again from the ground up around a combination of Matt Phillips, Elliot Grandin, Gary Taylor-Fletcher, perhaps Luke Varney and the everpresent Ian Evatt. This would again be a long process, but with responsible use of their parachute payments they could raise their wage ceiling by ₤3-5K from their current ₤10,000 ceiling and employ better quality players. This challenge is one of building the club from a small-scale Championship one to a middle-tier team capable of challenging year-in, year-out yet still with the finances to retain their best players.
In essence, this would keep to Karl Oyston's original plan of building a club, not a team.
but for instant gratification:
Sell Charlie Adam and replace him
Adam was crucial to everything Blackpool has done over the past two years. His scoring in the Championship (18 goals and 8 assists) allowed the Tangerines the chance to cream Cardiff in the Playoffs and he followed that dose with 12 EPL goals and 8 assists. Sir Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish and Harry Redknapp are all admirers - even if only two of those three are actually interested in bringing him in. He'll go this Summer. The man 'Olly signed in January to replace him, Andy Reid, ex of Sunderland has already departed.
Chances are Adam will fetch somewhere between ₤5-10 million, significantly below the rumoured ₤14 million asking price in January. Reinvesting some of that money in a potential replacement - the first names that stream to mind are Joe Ledley, Kris Commons and Lewis McGugan, all potentially interested in a move but hard to get - in Adam's central role could go some way towards ensuring another Tangerine top-10 finish. Likely though, as DJ Campbell, Stephen Crainey and Matt Gilks will follow Adam out the door, it's possible Holloway decides to revamp the entire Blackpool squad and with it, alter the way they play their game.
Try to keep DJ Campbell
For so long, Dudley Campbell has been earmarked "Championship Only - Leave behind when promoted". After thirteen EPL goals, his publicist has tagged him available and he could move if the price is right. He - and his services - are needed in the Northwest, so Chairman Oyston should try and retain him. If they can't, the recently released Kevin Phillips could prove a bargain-basement type replacement for his fox-in-the-box role and Marlon King has been good for Coventry City since his mid-season arrival.
Reinforce the defense, however, whenever, with whatever. Use 4x2s if needed.
Blackpool leaked goals partly because of their up-and-down style of play, and partly because their defence simply wasn't up to Premiership standards. Ian Evatt, wholehearted trier that he is, just doesn't cut the mustard as a EPL centre-back. How about testing Burnley's resolve for Clark Carlisle? Perhaps ask a few pointed questions of promoted QPR's spare central defenders as well. As for full-backs, see what Cardiff are doing with the disposable Paul Quinn or how much Coventry City really wants to keep Richard Wood.
The task is harder for Blackpool than for West Ham or Birmingham simply because they don't have the same foundations for growth as their relegated comrades. On the bright side, however, they don't have any of the crippling debt which is likely to play a key role in the future fortunes of the other two clubs, meaning that they are in a prime position to build a lasting entity rather than embark on a short-term "Premiership or (literally) bust" campaign.
Monday, May 23, 2011
What next for Birmingham City?
Thursday, May 19, 2011
What next for West Ham?
But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it's lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one - here's a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.
1. Sign a manager with experience and patience
Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months' worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club's youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.
Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he'd develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren. Update: McLaren has already ruled himself out of contention. January favourite Martin O'Neill is still in the running.
2. Expunge the deadwood
While Pablo Barrera hasn't lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant's transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT's.
As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn't the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.
3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies
It's been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board's first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about "the West Ham way" and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results - Allardyce, anyone? - a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.
4. Light a fire under the forwards
While Cole's struggled through a fair-to-poor season and may not even be at Upton Park next year, he could dominate the Championship. So could Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they'll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he's not sold, could also dominate in English football's lower reaches. Demba Ba also figures here if he's not sold - seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.
5. Value for money
Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he'll go. He'll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways - but is likely to find it's way either into reducing the club's remarkable debt or investment in the squad. The secret to success - and admittedly this is easier said than done - is to pry top-tier talent away from mid-table Championship squads, they're on the right track. The Guardian has published a piece detailing what to expect, player-by-player.
6. Free the club's youth
All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club's youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.
The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation. While they aren't currently at Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good - the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of the youth in East London.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Fulham to join Stoke and Birmingham in Europa League?
As the Premiership season hurtles to a satisfying conclusion, few may be more sated than Mark Hughes. The Welshman, in his twelfth year of management, has led Fulham to tenth place so far this season, boasts a +4 Goal Difference and a fair play record which sees them firmly in contention for European football next season.
Roundly pilloried in his early days at Craven Cottage - for a combination of factors including the club's mediocre-at-best early form, his egregiousness about his time at Manchester City, an insistence that every opposing manager properly shake hands with him and finally, his not being Roy Hodgson. Using a finally-healthy forward trio of Andy Johnson, Moussa Dembele and - critically - Bobby Zamora, Hughes has masterminded the Cottagers back from a perilous December position. Fulham still struggle to win away from home, but they've solidified their spot as a mid-table Premiership team and haven't had a player sent off since 2009.
UEFA awards a Europa League position to the best-behaved club (in terms of red and yellow cards) in each of the three best-behaved European leagues, so long as that club hasn't already qualified for the tournament. While Fulham lead the Premiership's disciplinary table, they haven't assured themselves of this spot - should they commit three yellows more than second-placed Blackpool (or worse, a couple of red cards) over their last two games, they would be
lose their position. Stoke City qualified for the tournament thanks to their FA Cup success, while Birmingham's League Cup triumph could see them playing in Podgorica next year. To see Blackpool - perhaps even from the Championship - would provide the most unlikely trio of English Europa League entrants in some time.
The Whites' positive goal difference is also a boon. Alongside freescoring midfielder Clint Dempsey, their primary forward trio of Johnson, Zamora and Dembele have played a combined forty-two starts as Dembele and Zamora have spent much of the season recovering from broken legs. Each of the three has a differing, harmonising se
t of skills - Big Bobby's the target-man with eyes on an England call-up, Johnson's the archetypal goal poacher while Dembele is fleet of foot and nimble in the link-up.
This trident - thrust by Dempsey and Danny Murphy - has Fulham, Michael Jackson statue and all, sitting tenth in the league. Even after receiving an entertaining 5 -2 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, Fulham boast a goal difference of +4, the second-best figure over the past ten EPL seasons for a club finishing in that position. Should they finish lower this differential could be a Premiership record. Like many managers, Hughes is most visible in defeat. That very little has been said of him during 2011 could perhaps be the ultimate compliment that his job in London has been completed in the image of the man himself - with very little fuss.
Image: Fulham's owner, Mohammed Al-Fayed with plastic friend. Courtesy: sports.yahoo.com
Monday, February 28, 2011
What League Cup win means for Birmingham City
After their 2-1 League Cup defeat of heavily favoured Arsenal, it is fit and proper for Birmingham City to celebrate. Behind the opportunism of Obafemi Martins, the calamity of Wojcieh Szczesny & Laurent Koscielny and the Scots' management nous of Alex McLeish, the Blues have won their first silverware since the old Division Two (now League 1) title in 1995. In all probability this is the biggest win in club history and the first time the side have won the League Cup since 1963.
McLeish must take the much of the credit, just as Wenger cannot be totally absolved of blame. City last year finished ninth in the Premiership on re-entering the division after a year in the Championship. This was their highest league position for over forty years as veterans such as Barry Ferguson and Lee Bowyer combined with a breakout season from Joe Hart to vault the Brummies into the top half. When Hart returned to parent club Manchester City, McLeish replaced him with the able Ben Foster to maintain a defence now reputed for stinginess. By combining several senior Premiership players with the cream of the Championship - chiefly centre-back England aspirants Roger Johnson and Scott Dann - and classy loan signees Aliaksandr Hleb, David Bentley and Obafemi Martins, the rednut Scot has built a squad with both the strength to operate in Birmingham's long-held defensive posture, but also the outrageous talent needed to generate those moments of magic requried to upset the big boys. In theory, anyway. The Blues haven't done so this season and are only two points above the relegation zone and far from safety. Foster, though good enough to be England's second choice isn't of the same blue chip quality as Hart and has played well, but not in the same "I'm in the zone all year" fashion that earned Hart his current, deserved rep.
And if McLeish takes - quite correctly - the credit for masterminding this triumph, then he should also take a portion of the blame for the Brummie plight. The team has spent considerable, but not award-winning, sums in introducing reputed class to surround an uncompromising spine; an exercise which could not be judged as a complete success. Even so, this title ensures McLeish receives a passing grade for this season and also for no other reason than he seems like he's trying to make positive changes. During both summer and winter transfer windows, McLeish confirmed a plethora of new bodies were asked to relocate to St Andrews but were unwilling to journey to England's infamously grim second city. Though this triumph - like Tottenham's in 2007 - may provide a springboard for a more positive last third of the season, the victory could also distract them and further complicate avoiding the drop. The workmanlike approach favoured by several City players makes this an unlikely option but still possible.
Though it was injury, youth and inexperience which cost Arsenal this title - Szczesny is 20 and it's Koscielny's first year with the Gunners - Arsene Wenger now may be willing to consider the possibility that his constant refusal to reinforce a notably shaky backline could be a flawed policy. Walcott's pace and Fabregas' needle-threading aside, Szczesny is a debatable second-stringer - albeit one with enormous potential - who has played well in recent outings and although Koscielny cost a reported €8.45 million and came off his best performance of the year against Barcelona, several Emirates cognoscenti don't view him as either an adequate or long-term centre-back candidate. The problem between the two was a simple, (probable) one-time communication dysfunction which allowed Martins his "easiest goal". Though Wenger wasn't on the pitch and selected a team capable of defeating City, he was selecting from the best players he had available: no Mark Schwarzer or Gary Cahill - two players linked heavily with a move to North London during summer - among them.
For City, the results are curious. Entry into next year's Europa League and a trophy to end the drought that's plagued the club for long stretches of it's existence are wonderful results for the season but are not necessarily first priorities. Individually it's a great achievement, but one which would be tarnished should the club finish the year in the drop zone. Craig Gardner's season has been one of quality and lucky underpants and the man whose name must always be prefixed with "Giant Serbian striker", Giant Serbian striker Nikola Zigic, has since New Year found the net more regularly than in his disastrous first half-year in the midlands.
With the midseason arrival of Martins, the club has reasons for optimism beyond European jaunts next year but the path home isn't horrible: their next seven matches should be considered "winnable", coming against WBA, Everton, Bolton, Wigan, Blackburn and Sunderland before two big four clubs. Then follow Wolves, Newcastle and Fulham before finishing the year at Tottenham. There are several clubs with much harder runs home and the bounce hopefully provided by their Cup win should see them through. Although local rivals Wolves have picked up recently, as have West Ham, Wigan's terminal slide into the Championship coupled with West Brom's seeming inability to stay in the Premiership for more than one season at a time should mean that one relegation spot is available and an unwary Brum may yet fill it.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Can Gold & Sullivan thrive at West Ham?
The Davids, Gold and Sullivan, have been involved in English football for several years now. In partnership they bought out the controlling stake in Birmingham City FC in 1993 after both independently made their fortunes, the adult movie business prime among their earners.
After protracted back and forth with Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung, The Davids sold Birmingham City in 2009, with Sullivan citing a lack of support from the Birmingham Council and from fans as major reasons for their departure. The pair then returned to their East End roots, purchasing 50% of West Ham United, the club both had supported as boys. Upon completing the purchase they then expressed their surprise at the levels of unreported debt at the club.
The Davids have a highly visible public profile. Both are successful businessmen and when asked, will spout opinion on their asset - the football club. According to the ESPN Soccernet podcast, when one journalist approached press time without a story, he would just call David Sullivan and all would be well. Of course as owners, they are entitled to comment upon the health of their asset but football matters have long been considered taboo for non-football executives, a line that they've crossed repeatedly over the past few years. Last season as Gianfranco Zola's tenure as West Ham manager very publicly wound down, it seemed one David was forever refusing to guarantee Zola his position while the other would appear more supportive.
Their immediate subordinate is Karren Brady, who the pair appointed as Managing Director of Birmingham City in 1993. Then only twenty-three and the first woman in such a position in the top flight of English football, Brady has parlayed her undoubted ability and business nous into considerable fame, attracting awards as diverse as recognitions from the Queen, to being voted one of FHM's Sexiest Women of the Year. She's another high-profile type, writing newspaper columns and serving as Alan Sugar's assistant in the UK version of The Apprentice. Brady, now the Vice-Chairman of West Ham, is known in the business as a "sacker" - though the stats don't really back that up, with Birmingham City only having four permanent bosses on her watch.
Can such a visible and vocal triumvirate promote long-term success at a West Ham? Outspoken opponents of the debt level in English football, The Davids are fiscally responsible but have also spent on the transfer market, meaning thrift isn't their ultimate watchword. No doubt their business acumen is keenly tuned but during their time at West Ham they've been guilty of speaking before seeing the full ramifications of their words. Though the situation is unquestionably fraught with a precipitous fiscal position, manager Avram Grant has been in the gun for several weeks as a young Hammers squad sits in the relegation zone, with a recent run of four wins from seven unable to bring about the dreaded "Vote of Confidence".
With such an unstable club, don't such public comments just undermine a manager's credibility and control within the club? If meetings are held, as reported, on a near-weekly basis to discuss a manager's future then surely players are less likely to respond to a dead man walking? And with The Davids and Karren refusing to promote stability - deliberately or not - in the club by supporting or firing the gaffer, then levels of indecision rise to an almost criminal level. Like most people, players value certainty when it comes to their future lives and careers. Fear of this future doesn't allow anyone to perform to their best.
The issue isn't if The Davids can run a football club - that was proved during their time in the Second City. The issue is whether they are aware that their public profile could be damaging the club's chances of Premiership survival, and and if so, are they are willing to sacrifice their right to speech if it aids the club's chances? They should heed the example of Newcastle United's achievements when a formerly bombastic board shut their mouths and allowed a quieter manager space to operate.
Life with The Davids and Karren is always interesting. For the foreseeable future, it should remain so.



