Newcastle United: to survive or thrive?

Newcastle United has turned from second-tier basket case to Premier League overachiever in the space of two years. It is no doubt thanks to owner Mike Ashley, managers past and present (Chris Hughton and Alan Pardew) and perhaps most encouragingly, the skills and snout of chief scout Graham Carr.

Carr, the father of comic Alan Carr, has scoured France and allowed the club to bring in excellent players at cost-effective prices. The two key names secured upon return to the Premier League were Cheick Tiote and Hatem Ben-Arfa; they have since been joined by Sylvan Marveaux of Rennes and, perhaps most beneficially, France International midfielder Yohan Cabaye, late of Lille.

Courtesy: guardian.co.uk

While there are many Francophones now residing Tyneside, there's more than just that to the Newcastle French Connection. Newcastle's transfer dealings so imitated those of Ligue 1 club Lyon that Newcastle blogger Kris Heneage immortalized the link in this post two days ago. In it, he describes Lyon President Jean-Michel Aulas' planning behind a successful football club, business and pitch-wise.

The principles laid out are sound in theory, but would be difficult to implement in practice. But this isn't Ashley's - or Aulas' - problem, but that of their manager. The rules are business-smart and also give supporters consistency in expectation.  However, the points could doom a club into setting their own level, as if achievement is desirable, but merely a by-product.

Indeed, in many ways  - especially satisfying alleged "problem players" - Newcastle seem to have implemented these statutes more effectively than Olympique Lyonnais. The Toon Army sits in third place in the Premier League, but is still yet to play the Manchester twins, City and United, as well as Chelsea. It's probable that Tiote and Cabaye will have more illustrious suitors - Manchester United could maybe use them both - and the monies received for Andy Carroll make that deal look like a magnificent decision from the boardroom.

Does this platform work? As a league superpower - as Lyon are, but Newcastle aren't - unquestionably. It also helps if your city is a beautiful, luxuriant metropolis in the south of France. Can the same be said of the a chilly outpost in England's northeast?

It would stand to reason that every club obeys a subset of these rules. Every player, outside perhaps Lionel Messi, has his price. Cristiano Ronaldo's was 80 million pounds, Fernando Torres' about two-thirds of that. Sir Alex Ferguson could perhaps even get a bunch of rocks and $20 for Michael Carrick. Even when the money offered is silly; it would be idiotic to refuse it.

But basing a club's economy significantly on the sale of their best players - even when already possessing replacements - can make a club more fiscally secure in the short term, at least as long as the overall talent level is maintained.  Should the scouting fail or injuries hit - c.f. Wigan Athletic - the club could face an uphill battle to meet even modest expectation. From a mid-table side, the model also, however, fails to capture the imagination.  This inspiration is so important in sport, but now may become a thing of the past.  In many cases unbridled, fantastical hopes for one's team are now a thing for Football Manager games rather than reality.


Reducing a club's "achievement ceiling" means setting a level where they can expect to be consistent EPL performers barring unforeseen circumstances. This is what adept businesspeople do: control those circumstances under their control.  But if a club constantly loses their best talent, the best result they can expect is for a strong Cup run and top-ten finish.

Would supporters trade a good Cup run and, best-case, a Europa League campaign for the hopes that accompany retaining their best players?  Good question.  Certainly the pointy-heads in accounting would prefer this model; but fans' hopes are given an upper boundary - for better or worse.  Now re-born after a period in the Championship, NUFC supporters might be the best ones to answer this question: would they trade this new team of Cabaye, Marveaux, Tiote and Ben-Arfa for a golden age of Michael Owen, Mark Viduka and Alan Smith?  The full truth probably won't be evident until that time when (if?) these new Toon stars are enticed to pastures new.

Game 12: Blackburn Rovers at Newcastle

Wednesday's Premiership encounter between Blackburn and Newcastle was a match between two solid, physical teams - only to be expected from a Sam Allardyce squad and a side fielding Mike Williamson, Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan. It ended, as it begun, with a Newcastle United lapse in concentration costing them a goal and with Blackburn taking the points at St. James' Park as Newcastle's home form turned from middling into mediocre.

Another loss to mid-table opposition at St. James' Park suggests last year's bastion remains just that: a thing of the past. This Rovers team are perhaps the most well-suited side to defeat a Newcastle team that this year has thrived on three things: physicality, a solid midfield and a mature defence based on positioning and efforts of will rather than on athleticism. The form of Andy Carroll so worried Allardyce that he employed three centre-backs rather than his standard pair Ryan Nelsen and Christopher Samba. It was a winning move even though the man they sought to stop, Carroll, was still Newcastle's most threatening piece in a chess game less about guile than about out-and-out battlefield slaughter. As Hughton's queen (it's the hair, you understand. Oh and also his ability to wreak devastation on opponents) he was less-supported by his wide men as in recent matches even though the whole side was quite Andy-Conscious. He was able to convert a header from a Barton free kick all but ensuring a worthy England call later this week.

The Newcastle midfield receiving plaudits for its form this year were outplayed. With Barton, Nolan and Tiote not a trio ever to be mistaken for Happy Feet they were not so mcuh outhustled as outclassed as Rovers wide men Brett Emerton and Morten Gamst Pedersen proved effective against a midfield so effective three days previously against Arsenal.

The two goals resulted from simple lapses in concentration from Tiote and Mike Williamson. Joey Barton had a lapse in concentration of a different kind: he will be suspended for his gut-punch to Pedersen after presenting a restrained, mature front for a third of the season. Fans and managers alike were hoping that this newfound maturity could last - even though he has shown remorse his actions once again call into question his temperament. Indeed, that maturity may well be the watchword for the Toon this year.

This season has been and will continue to be a year of maturation for the Newcastle United squad and for the faithful. They sport - for the most part - a more wise game plan than when they were relegated. Mike Ashley has justifiably refused to offer The Understated One a long-term contract as a result of one year's effective management. It appears caution is the watchword on Tyneside and it would appear to be working.

Just as in life, maturing doesn't happen as the result of a decision but of experience: ask any parent. Rather than an alchemical process where a mentor adds ingredients and suddenly lead is turn'd to gold, the obtaining of wisdom is gentle steeping which increases in richness and flavour as the subject is exposed to it. The process starts, there are ups and downs and the result is due to the journey rather than any decision made along the way. The journey maketh the man. Perhaps it's similar of Newcastle United this year: the journey needs to maketh the team.

Why are we even smelling smoke?

Rumour has it that Chris Hughton is nearly cannon fodder. The tabloid gossip-mongers have recently suggested that he's one of the next managers on the chopping block should the Tyneside club fail to improve recent performances. Yesterday, the Newcastle cognoscenti rebutted that gossip and began talk about extending the EPL's least-paid manager.

But there's no smoke without fire.

Perhaps that's unfair. Once a few years ago, I awoke at 3am to the smell of smoke in my bedroom. Not having anyone to verify/refute my nasal competence and being unsure of where it was coming from, I phoned the fire brigade and was greeted five minutes later with four fire engines and about thirty firemen. They too smelled the smoke, made a quick recce and decided some teen had lit a local bin afire and trotted off back to base. My point is this: we don't even need smoke to get panicky. All we need is a hint of smoke and suddenly everyone mobilises so quickly you don't know what's happening.

You can draw the same parallels with hints that a board may be replacing a manager.

So why is there a smell of smoke on Tyneside? A 4-0 defeat to Arsenal arouses some suspicions, but surely ones put easily to bed considering Toon's defensive astuteness this year. It would be ungenerous to lay blame at Hughton for one poor game, especially one featuring a Magpie midfield of teens Tamas Kadar and Haris Vukcic alongside "gimp squad" members Danny Guthrie and Alan Smith. That they allowed all four goals in the final forty-five minutes is perhaps cause for concern - but this forgets one thing: it was the League Cup and therefore should be inconsequential.

Of greater concern is their inability to win consistently at St. James' Park but even after nine games (total), to fire a coach because they've lost twice and won only once at home is almost laughably intolerant.

To look at Newcastle United's regular midfield is to see quality. Ivorian Cheick Tiote has proven an astute signing, Joey Barton is probably approaching career-best form (I may rot in hell for even posing this question but: England? Probably not, but it's not something you can dismiss automatically any more) and Danny Guthrie, their best midfielder both of the last two years, is returning to fitness and form. There's been calls for Andy Carroll to represent England while Kevin Nolan has been his usual industrious self. They aren't shopping goals. They're scoring at a fair rate. They've been competitive. They've been (relatively) disciplined. Yes, they've missed Guthrie, Steven Taylor and Steve Harper, but their replacements have all proved more than adequate.

That the press are suggesting that he is on borrowed time at all is incredible. Even more remarkable is the tone in which this is being done. It's not one of persecution, a la Gary Megson, Gianfranco Zola or even Phil Brown. There's a tenor of evenness combined with a smidgen of disbelief because popular opinion has Hughton doing a good job. Popular opinion of this NUFC squad is that it's reasonable. Calling it above average would be a stretch. Chris Hughton knows it, the media knows it - hell, the fans even know it. hat the players have come out in support of their boss shows that they know they aren't a team of world-beaters. How and why the boardroom don't appear to grasp this amazingly simple concept is puzzling and ultimately, everyone also knows it's "the prawn sandwich brigade" who sign the manager's cheques.

Newcastle United sit ninth on the Premiership table after nine games. They sit amidst elevated company such as West Bromwich Albion, Bolton and local rivals (and next opponents) Sunderland. Surely even a smell of smoke is both premature and alarming for a club enjoying it's longest period of stability in over three years.

Game 7: Manchester City vs Newcastle United

As startlingly and dramatically as he arrived, Hatem Ben Arfa's season is likely over courtesy a tackle by Man City destroyer Nigel de Jong. This loss – in the fourth minute of Sunday's match – compounded Newcastle's defeat to a curiously set up Citizens team whose aim seemed to be ensuring defensive stability at the expense of offensive creativity. That City chose to display their creativity at the wing position however was astute as, usually for this season, right-back James Perch was the weakest link in an otherwise tightly-fought game.

Perch has achieved the admirable record of seven games for six cards this term as he struggles to establish himself as the Toon right-back for the future. Perhaps Ryan Taylor's spectacular first performance for the season last week at Chelsea has unsettled him further; again on Sunday he was exploited as David Silva and James Milner consistently forced him into poor defensive position and his inexperience in the top-flight put his teammates under pressure time and again.

He was hardly the only one though. With Coloccini – unexpectedly Newcastle's “pacy” central defender – injured in the 36^th minute, Hughton was forced to call upon Sol Campbell to partner Mike Williamson. Williamson was made to pay for his lack of legspeed as he gave away a controversial penalty: from the stands, it looked a certain penalty while replays only clouded the matter, but whatever the result he must be thankful that he didn't receive the automatic red card that should have accompanied the spot kick. That the Tyneside centre-backs (and indeed Perch) are so immobile seems to be their Achilles heel: forever being beaten for pace, they are then forced to tackle from inopportune positions and risk fouling the opposing forwards. That they have been able to achieve a measure of defensive strength so far this year is credit to their technique but it is an ill omen for whenever they are face speedy strikers.

That Adam Johnson went around two Toon defenders (Enrique and Barton) before beating Tim Krul – who has so far delivered exactly what was expected of him: good shot stopping but less of a box-presence – in the 75^th minute is an indictment on the defenders Hughton has used this season. It is understandable to rely on Enrique and Perch given the paucity of options but the entire back four has too often been shaped too squarely and allowed opposing defenders to break the offside trap and to create easy chances. That the scorer was Johnson, with the most tricks of any Sky Blue winger, is unsurprising as he again is a mobile flanker rather than a positional threat.

Jonas Gutierrez was superb on the left flank and will need to maintain performances of this level should creative hub HBA remain on the disabled list. His 24^th minute goal following up his own cross left five Man City defenders bewildered and bemused in his wake. More repeats of a similar tune from Newcastle though – presence through the wings (if slightly effeminate ones with lightweights Routledge and Gutierrez), with the impressive Barton and Tiote manning the centre of midfield.

Shola Ameobi made his third straight start for the Magpies, leaving Andy Carroll on the bench. The Boy Wonder came on with thirteen minutes remaining in place of Kevin Nolan who was both sporadically effective and subdued. Long a whipping boy of the terraces, Ameobi scored thrice in his first two starts this year to earn himself another attempt in the opening lineup and comments from the manager (thinly veiled at Carroll) that no-one's starting place is considered holy. Even neutral observers have can say Ameobi's had a better fortnight than the New New Messiah. Unfortunatley, Shola basically doesn't have the same ability or Greek-god physique that Carroll sports, meaning he doesn't have the same happy knack of creating time for himself or others in the opposition's area. His appeals for a late penalty were optimistic but had he not been dispossessed as easily by Gareth Barry ten minutes before, perhaps the Toon wouldn't have needed a late spot kick. Simply by virtue of their respective talent levels, expect Carroll to start again at home to Wigan after the international break.

Another close defeat by Newcastle. They seem to be making a good fist so far of staying up – apart from the first match against Man Utd they've been in every match until quite late. However, it is time for the Magpies to start turning close-run defeats and draws into wins. This will come with greater defensive efficiency and more consistency going forward from their so-called flair players.

Game 5: Everton vs Newcastle United

It's taken all of 62 minutes for Hatem Ben Arfa to prove his worth to Newcastle. His wonderful strike against Everton has turned English admirers-from-afar into disciples. The goal was magnificent – controlling the ball, wrong-footing two opponents and firing a left-footed screamer into Tim Howard's top corner. It was a inescapable, masterful piece of football genius and one for which the crowds of Marseille perhaps are pining given their sputtering start in Ligue 1.

That on his full debut for Newcastle he produced such magic is only to be expected, really. There's never been any debate about his footskills, with more questions raised above shoulder level than below. His elegant manner on the ball is only emphasised by his nuggetiness and ability to stand up in the challenge. His goal proved that his left foot especially is a cannon.

The more unexpected comment came to me this morning with ESPN Soccernet's headline: “Hughton hints at permanent deal for Ben Arfa”. I'm sorry, what? This is a headline? Of course they're looking for a permanent deal, he's the most naturally skilled player – and probably the most talented player – the Toon have had since Alan Shearer turned 30. Why wouldn't you try to sign him? For Newcastle, the loan deal for Ben Arfa was never a “try before you buy”, but more Ben Arfa getting a free look into life Tyneside before committing to becoming Andy Carroll's competition for the title of Next Messiah. Unable to meet Marseille's straight-up asking price over the summer, they'll have to pony up the pounds in January (or at season's end) to keep him. That they have first option to buy is a very encouraging sign as his performances as “feature” player in the Toon midfield could well pique interest in the Frenchman.

That his full debut was accompanied by that of Cheick Tiote can hardly have hurt HBA. The Ivorian was superb as he completed all of his 43 passes and provided a strength and mobility in the midfield which the game-but-overmatched Alan Smith has heretofore unable to provide. With Smith undoubtedly the weakest link in the centre of the park and Danny Guthrie yet to return, the fervent Toon Army hope is the troika of Tiote, Barton and Guthrie are able to keep Smith from the side, as disappointing as that would be for such a likeable sort.

In an otherwise uneventful match, the Toon defence looked solid – as usual – and the pace on the flanks stood up well after having looked slightly misguided over the past two matches; Routledge had a good chance and it appeared the Toffee fullbacks were at times unable to cope with his and HBA's speed. Mike Williamson and Fab Coloccini again showed their mettle against forwards completely devoid of jinks and tricks – as this season has shown, Beckford's pace could well have troubled the pairing but they were able to cope with minimum of fuss. That they were also able to nullify the aerial prowess of Marouane Fellaini must go down as another feather in their caps; however a slightly smaller feather as the other Evertonian bombardier Tim Cahill was injured and unable to play.

The biggest question raised by Saturday's match though concerns the Goalkeeper. With Steve Harper going down at the thirty-fifth minute with a shoulder injury it left young Tim Krul to hold the fort. Highly rated by the Newcastle coaching staff, this may be the opportunity he requires to step up and show he has what it takes to replace Harper long-term. Rumours abound the Magpies are in the market for a new goalie – Shay Given, anyone? – but there are a few question marks concerning Shay's potential Tyneside return. Surely Given must be conscious of the old adage “Never go back”? And secondly, the Newcastle defence has been served well with the vocal, organised Harper where commanding a defence ranks below shot-stopping on Given's list of attributes. The position for the short term is Krul's to lose; though he's thought well of, there are bountiful question marks about his ability not necessarily to stop shots, but to command and organise a defence – in that way he, like Given, is a very different type of keeper to Harper. That Coloccini and Sol Campbell have some of these administrative skills is a plus and takes some of the pressure off the 22 year-old, but Harper has been crucial to the defensive watertightness that NUFC has attempted this year, so the changeover itself could be a destabilising influence.