Newcastle United: to survive or thrive?

Newcastle United has turned from second-tier basket case to Premier League overachiever in the space of two years. It is no doubt thanks to owner Mike Ashley, managers past and present (Chris Hughton and Alan Pardew) and perhaps most encouragingly, the skills and snout of chief scout Graham Carr.

Carr, the father of comic Alan Carr, has scoured France and allowed the club to bring in excellent players at cost-effective prices. The two key names secured upon return to the Premier League were Cheick Tiote and Hatem Ben-Arfa; they have since been joined by Sylvan Marveaux of Rennes and, perhaps most beneficially, France International midfielder Yohan Cabaye, late of Lille.

Courtesy: guardian.co.uk

While there are many Francophones now residing Tyneside, there's more than just that to the Newcastle French Connection. Newcastle's transfer dealings so imitated those of Ligue 1 club Lyon that Newcastle blogger Kris Heneage immortalized the link in this post two days ago. In it, he describes Lyon President Jean-Michel Aulas' planning behind a successful football club, business and pitch-wise.

The principles laid out are sound in theory, but would be difficult to implement in practice. But this isn't Ashley's - or Aulas' - problem, but that of their manager. The rules are business-smart and also give supporters consistency in expectation.  However, the points could doom a club into setting their own level, as if achievement is desirable, but merely a by-product.

Indeed, in many ways  - especially satisfying alleged "problem players" - Newcastle seem to have implemented these statutes more effectively than Olympique Lyonnais. The Toon Army sits in third place in the Premier League, but is still yet to play the Manchester twins, City and United, as well as Chelsea. It's probable that Tiote and Cabaye will have more illustrious suitors - Manchester United could maybe use them both - and the monies received for Andy Carroll make that deal look like a magnificent decision from the boardroom.

Does this platform work? As a league superpower - as Lyon are, but Newcastle aren't - unquestionably. It also helps if your city is a beautiful, luxuriant metropolis in the south of France. Can the same be said of the a chilly outpost in England's northeast?

It would stand to reason that every club obeys a subset of these rules. Every player, outside perhaps Lionel Messi, has his price. Cristiano Ronaldo's was 80 million pounds, Fernando Torres' about two-thirds of that. Sir Alex Ferguson could perhaps even get a bunch of rocks and $20 for Michael Carrick. Even when the money offered is silly; it would be idiotic to refuse it.

But basing a club's economy significantly on the sale of their best players - even when already possessing replacements - can make a club more fiscally secure in the short term, at least as long as the overall talent level is maintained.  Should the scouting fail or injuries hit - c.f. Wigan Athletic - the club could face an uphill battle to meet even modest expectation. From a mid-table side, the model also, however, fails to capture the imagination.  This inspiration is so important in sport, but now may become a thing of the past.  In many cases unbridled, fantastical hopes for one's team are now a thing for Football Manager games rather than reality.


Reducing a club's "achievement ceiling" means setting a level where they can expect to be consistent EPL performers barring unforeseen circumstances. This is what adept businesspeople do: control those circumstances under their control.  But if a club constantly loses their best talent, the best result they can expect is for a strong Cup run and top-ten finish.

Would supporters trade a good Cup run and, best-case, a Europa League campaign for the hopes that accompany retaining their best players?  Good question.  Certainly the pointy-heads in accounting would prefer this model; but fans' hopes are given an upper boundary - for better or worse.  Now re-born after a period in the Championship, NUFC supporters might be the best ones to answer this question: would they trade this new team of Cabaye, Marveaux, Tiote and Ben-Arfa for a golden age of Michael Owen, Mark Viduka and Alan Smith?  The full truth probably won't be evident until that time when (if?) these new Toon stars are enticed to pastures new.

The Alan Pardew Project

Alan Pardew is the new boss at Newcastle United. After Mike Ashley decided to fire Chris Hughton it was always likely that the former West Ham manager would be appointed to fill the leadership void on Tyneside. Rumour has it (and it must be said again that this is strictly rumour) that he was seen dining with Ashley in a chichi London eatery the night before Hughton was turfed from his role at St. James' Park. The paucity of current top-class managerial options - even Alan Curbishley turned his nose up at the job - also suggested that Pardew could well be the man for the job.

The most curious part about this appointment is not that Hughton was fired, or even that his replacement comes straight from League One. The most interesting part is the length of contract endowed upon Pardew. The Newcastle hierarchy has seen fit to dish out a five-and-a-half year contract to the 49 year-old silvertail after refusing to commit to The Understated One (Hughton) for even one extra year following a string of good results. The writing on the wall was plain: Hughton was never going to get that contract renewal whether he earned it or not; if only for reasons unbeknownst to us all, he was not the man that Ashley wanted in charge.

The reason five-plus years is curious is that it comes directly after management stated there will be "no rewards for failure" on Tyneside. Alongside that came the standard owner's fare that every penny will be watched under the new gaffer. This implies that Ashley thought Hughton's tenure should be stamped "Fail". If winning the Championship in a canter and maintaining a healthy Premier league position is insufficient then Hughton is guilty. But it also says that whoever took on the job would be judged by the same standards and would have only the same cattle on hand. Perhaps it was shrewd negotiating by Pardew in demanding a five year deal, knowing Ashley could be counted on to lean in whichever way the wind blows. Or perhaps even more believably, Alan Pardew is simply that convincing a salesman that he pitched the Big Man on his features/advantages/benefits so well that Ashley bought the lot. If so, that's a trait not to be underestimated as all the best managers are first-class pitchmen, but Ashley didn't make his millions by being gullible so it is a long bow to draw.

Pardew has said his first thoughts were on maintaining the Magpies' Premiership status - a good start - but if he is to be judged by the same criteria that Hughton has been then he has a pitched battle on his hands. By committing to judge Pardew by the same standards by which he's axed The Understated One then surely Ashley has just offered over five years wages' to a man with a questionable history of achievement and will reward Pardew for whatever he bring to Tyneside: success, mediocrity or failure.

Whichever way you approach, it seems like Alan Pardew, through Mike Ashley's good humour, good eye-for-talent or poor judgement, has been rewarded before the results are in.

Ashley's crazy decision

From all outward appearances, Mike Ashley is an odd one. Ever since assuming the role of chairman at Newcastle United his behaviour could be best described as "eccentric" and his decision to today oust manager Chris Hughton has, however, moved him from the category "makes strange decisions" to "genuinely malicious".

Chris Hughton was fired this morning by Newcastle management as they sought "someone with more experience". His record notwithstanding, The Understated One had just overseen a 3-1 hiding at the hands of fellow promoted side West Bromwich and perhaps this match had less bearing on the firing than we're now led to believe.

Responses from the team have been a mixture of anger, surprise and bemusement. He was popular: recently all of Kevin Nolan, Andy Carroll and Jonas Gutierrez had publicly supported of their boss' methods. After the events of this morning, veterans Sol Campbell and Nolan led the calls of "Why?". Hughton was effective: after taking the reins a second time, Hughton guided the Magpies to promotion from the Championship in their first attempt - winning the Title in the process - when all and sundry declared them ripe for a Leeds United-type fall into the lower reaches of League One. He also managed nineteen points from the Magpies' opening sixteen matches. He was also a coach, thrust into the top job rather unwillingly at first when Kevin Keegan resigned, and again when it was decided that Alan Shearer shouldn't continue as Toon boss. The fact he wasn't a frontman a la Joe Kinnear and more of a back-room boy commanded the respect of the players and he demanded his charges develop. During his time in charge, he received marked improvement from Nile Ranger, Wayne Routledge, Danny Guthrie and most importantly of all, Andy Carroll.

Response from fans to the news has been almost uniformly negative. The words "disgusted", "dismayed" and "gutted" have been bandied about in chat forums and fans as well as the media have leapt to ask why such an effective manager and stabilising influence was handed his pink slip. Already mildly undermined by contract nearing it's expiry with no signs of it being renewed, it has become staggeringly obvious why that much-talked about new contract didn't appear: the Understated One never had any long term future as boss on Tyneside because Ashley saw him solely as a Temp and thus, when the time came to bid farewell he did so without second thoughts. With fans, the football media and players alike sounding off about Hughton deserving a new deal, Ashley proved once again who's the boss on Tyneside and sent his man packing.

The chief reason Newcastle gave for the firing was their seeking someone more experienced to take the poisoned chalice of Magpies Management. However, the first two names linked with the job were Alan Pardew and Iain Dowie. Surely given his uncanny ability to be linked to every single Premier League job that arises, Alan Curbishley's name will also be thrown about willy-nilly. Pardew has seventeen months of experience in the Top Flight with Charlton Athletic & West Ham, Dowie moreso but also a highly chequered record unenhanced by his recent stints as the brains behind Alan Shearer's managerial career and his role as "management consultant" at Hull FC. That Dutchman Martin Jol resigned today from his position at Ajax should be considered a hope by "gutted" and "dismayed" Toon Army members - as a top class manager he could provide some stability but must ask himself "Why would I come to Newcastle - where stability is rewarded with the sack".

That this decision has come at all makes one wonder how much Mike Ashley actually understands football. In all probability he's that most dangerous of owners: he who thinks he knows the game, but really has no idea what makes a player tick. The 3 - 1 defeat by WBA, although the catalyst for Hughton's dismissal, can't have been the reason: Newcastle were missing both first-choice centre-backs, both first-choice central midfielders and one of their top forwards in Nolan. With no money made available to re-stock, Hughton had to make do with what he had. By sacking a popular manager while the club enjoys its most crisis-free period since his arrival suggests that Ashley demands catastrophe rather than evenness. By saying "Newcastle United have consciously decided to plunge themselves back into crisis", Dale Johnson of ESPN Soccernet reads the situation extremely well. By firing the gaffer in the midst of what should be considered a successful season thus far, Ashley has disregarded the preferences of his players - the guys attempting to keep his club in the Premier League - for his own whims, and therefore risks upsetting the Toon applecart simply to satisfy some personal feeling about the man he installed only a matter of months ago. There can be no doubt whatsoever that the axe has been hovering above Hughton's neck for some weeks: rumours abounded before the 5 - 1 mauling of Sunderland that the Manager was for the chop should Newcastle not perform. That only a matter of a month later he has finally successfully rid himself of this irksome understated manager means that Ashley was simply looking for an excuse to do the dirty.

That Newcastle, although officially off the market, could still be purchased by someone with deep enough pockets and strong enough willpower also bears thinking about. Talk around football water coolers says that Ashley could be convinced without trouble to sell should the money be right, and by first firing an inexpensive manager and subsequently appointing an experience (read: expensive) manager it's likely that any potential sale will be affected by this, given the ease with which inexpensive managers can be replaced. Should The Clown in Charge still harbour ambitions of selling the club, then he's just added another hurdle to that potential sale.

If there was one thing that Chris Hughton bought to Newcastle, it was stability. The players, the media, the fans all knew what they were going to get from him and so must have Mike Ashley. Yet the expectation of the manager at St. James' Park remains unreal to the point of laughter. And if guiding your squad to eleventh position in the Premiership with a threadbare squad earns you the sack, what expectations must Ashley have of a new manager? Whichever new manager Ashley appoints, they can be completely certain that Ashley has ideas above his club's station and for a manager, that is a recipe for disaster.

Game 11: Newcastle United at Arsenal

Yet more questions awaited Newcastle United as they visited Arsenal on Sunday.

Further questions of Andy Carroll and his off-field behaviour. Further questions about whether Fabio Capello could select such a player - irrespective of form - for his next Three Lions squad. Further questions regarding Carroll's ability to continue pushing the controversy to one side and keep performing. Yet more queries of a Newcastle United squad smooshed by Arsenal just a fortnight ago in the League Cup - the same defeat starting recent speculation about Chris Hughton's continued employment on Tyneside. More importantly, would we get to see The Understated One's horse-riding happy-dance again? Another conundrum in the makeup of the Magpies back four: Simpson, Perch or the recovered "Who-Boy" Taylor at right-back? Williamson, Who-Boy or the dichotomous Sol Campbell (is he fit, is he not?) to partner Coloccini?

The second-last question proved the easiest to answer. After last week's brilliant showing in the Tyne/Wear derby, manager Chris Hughton - sporting a very unusual haircut, grey on one half of his head and black the other, perhaps influenced by Barton - decided to maintain the same lineup that spanked the Mackems.

Answers to the others would take the full ninety minutes.

Early gambits were mainly to the benefit of the North Londoners: Fabregas cannoned a deflected free kick off the crossbar and Nasri was thwarted by superb Tim Krul shot-stopping. Arsenal then paid the ultimate penalty for their inability to convert their offensive dominance as Andy Carroll soared above two Arsenal defenders and helpless 'keeper Lukas Fabianski to head home his sixth Premiership goal of the season. After the game, both managers praised the horrible-hair'd self-styled Bad Boy for his mobility and goal sense.

The efficacy with which the Toon dropped men back during the second half simply forced Wenger's usually stolid face into a moue of displeasure as time and again his Gunners proved unable to break down their Magpie opponents. As has been their habit this term, Joey Barton and Cheick Tiote were crucial in their ability to both win the ball and distribute it well to the effective flank play of Gutierrez & Kevin Nolan. Their steel and discipline - yes, I just wrote "Joey Barton" and "discipline" in the same sentence - has been, alongside the form of Nolan & Carroll, the most resolute of Newcastle strengths since their elevation into the exalted Premier League ranks. Nolan - uncommonly more conspicuous in the defensive box than at the offensive end with startling effect - was instrumental in maintaining the Toon lead, an advantage cemented once and for all when during added extra time Arsenal defender Laurent Koscielny held back Toon youngster Nile Ranger and was shown a straight red. Wenger's men now numbered only ten and any hope of victory began to evaporate.

The duality of Newcastle United has again surfaced. In the space of three weeks, they been subjected to a rumoured re-take-over by former chairman Freddy Shepherd, threats to the continued tenure of a well-performed and well liked Manager, a superstar who can't stay out of the Tabloid gossip columns but yet they still are performing, sitting fifth in the Premier League tables. The fans are becoming more vocal after a rather unostentatious start to their resurrection to Premier League football. A quarter of the year gone and the undeniable talent has emerged and is playing at close to it's potential.

We have some answers. But still there remains questions. And that's why we love football.

Why are we even smelling smoke?

Rumour has it that Chris Hughton is nearly cannon fodder. The tabloid gossip-mongers have recently suggested that he's one of the next managers on the chopping block should the Tyneside club fail to improve recent performances. Yesterday, the Newcastle cognoscenti rebutted that gossip and began talk about extending the EPL's least-paid manager.

But there's no smoke without fire.

Perhaps that's unfair. Once a few years ago, I awoke at 3am to the smell of smoke in my bedroom. Not having anyone to verify/refute my nasal competence and being unsure of where it was coming from, I phoned the fire brigade and was greeted five minutes later with four fire engines and about thirty firemen. They too smelled the smoke, made a quick recce and decided some teen had lit a local bin afire and trotted off back to base. My point is this: we don't even need smoke to get panicky. All we need is a hint of smoke and suddenly everyone mobilises so quickly you don't know what's happening.

You can draw the same parallels with hints that a board may be replacing a manager.

So why is there a smell of smoke on Tyneside? A 4-0 defeat to Arsenal arouses some suspicions, but surely ones put easily to bed considering Toon's defensive astuteness this year. It would be ungenerous to lay blame at Hughton for one poor game, especially one featuring a Magpie midfield of teens Tamas Kadar and Haris Vukcic alongside "gimp squad" members Danny Guthrie and Alan Smith. That they allowed all four goals in the final forty-five minutes is perhaps cause for concern - but this forgets one thing: it was the League Cup and therefore should be inconsequential.

Of greater concern is their inability to win consistently at St. James' Park but even after nine games (total), to fire a coach because they've lost twice and won only once at home is almost laughably intolerant.

To look at Newcastle United's regular midfield is to see quality. Ivorian Cheick Tiote has proven an astute signing, Joey Barton is probably approaching career-best form (I may rot in hell for even posing this question but: England? Probably not, but it's not something you can dismiss automatically any more) and Danny Guthrie, their best midfielder both of the last two years, is returning to fitness and form. There's been calls for Andy Carroll to represent England while Kevin Nolan has been his usual industrious self. They aren't shopping goals. They're scoring at a fair rate. They've been competitive. They've been (relatively) disciplined. Yes, they've missed Guthrie, Steven Taylor and Steve Harper, but their replacements have all proved more than adequate.

That the press are suggesting that he is on borrowed time at all is incredible. Even more remarkable is the tone in which this is being done. It's not one of persecution, a la Gary Megson, Gianfranco Zola or even Phil Brown. There's a tenor of evenness combined with a smidgen of disbelief because popular opinion has Hughton doing a good job. Popular opinion of this NUFC squad is that it's reasonable. Calling it above average would be a stretch. Chris Hughton knows it, the media knows it - hell, the fans even know it. hat the players have come out in support of their boss shows that they know they aren't a team of world-beaters. How and why the boardroom don't appear to grasp this amazingly simple concept is puzzling and ultimately, everyone also knows it's "the prawn sandwich brigade" who sign the manager's cheques.

Newcastle United sit ninth on the Premiership table after nine games. They sit amidst elevated company such as West Bromwich Albion, Bolton and local rivals (and next opponents) Sunderland. Surely even a smell of smoke is both premature and alarming for a club enjoying it's longest period of stability in over three years.

To sign or not to sign?

Six million pounds is a lot of money to spend on a gimp. After having both tibia and fibula broken by an uncontrolled tackle by Nigel de Jong, signing Hatem Ben Arfa on a permanent basis becomes an expensive gamble for Mike Ashley, Chris Hughton and Colin Calderwood. With the figure of six million pounds being thrown around as the the agreed price to complete his signing, suddenly his loan period becomes less of a “try before you buy” and more a tantalising glimpse of what his precocious talent may allow the club to accomplish.

During his glittering few games on Tyneside before the unfortunate injury, Ben Arfa looked a good investment for the 1.5 million the Magpies paid for his loan stint. He provided a touch of magic to an otherwise pedestrian and staid midfield. Had he been able to keep his head and not fall out with either manager or teammates, Newcastle taking up the first chance to sign him for good at season's end was a certainty. But with the surgery to repair the break likely to keep him out of action until the end of the season, the still-penny-saving Newcastle United finds itself in a quandary. Do they take the punt and sign the obviously talented but also-obviously erratic creator, or do they feel his injury could make the six million too high a price?

It breaks down like this: there's a significant chance that Hatem Ben Arfa will never be the same player again. He is undoubtedly a talent, but as the Magpies have discovered the hard way with Alan Smith, once a player breaks a leg there are no guarantees that he is able to repeatedly produce the athleticism needed in a competitive league like the EPL. And unfortunately Smith isn't the only example: once Eduardo suffered his horrifying injury at the hands (or feet) of Martin Taylor he was unable to keep pace with the Premier League and has since moved to Shakhtar Donetsk and a lower standard of league. Questions remain about Aaron Ramsey's restorative powers and whether his leg will be able to stand up to the punishment of another strong challenge. Antonio Valencia's Man Utd career could be finished soon after starting.

But there is a chance that HBA will be the player that many expect: a full France international, a creator of chances and goals – as borne witness to by his magical strike against Everton. He's only 23 and a potential superstar. In an age of nonsensical transfer prices, six million pounds is an absolute snip for a player – a difference maker – of that quality and promise.

With Alan Smith's lame-duck status fresh in their minds and Mike Ashley still attempting to deal the club, it's hard to believe that the bankers will look well upon an investment which isn't a sure thing. The first question is whether or not the Toon will use their first option to buy before the end of the season. If they do, they will be damned with a player who could stumble about a shell of his former self. If not, they risk the next great French player showing his wares at Juventus, Rangers or Sevilla. As simple as it sounds, they don't want that clause to expire as there's no possibility that Ben Arfa will play next season at home club Marseille because he and coach Didier Deschamps don't get along. He will be somewhere else next term, whether it be Newcastle or elsewhere.

Questions remain as to whether or not Newcastle even can survive this season. If they are relegated, this becomes a moot point as there is no chance HBA will play for a second-string team. But whatever happens, it willl be a curious few months for the Toon. Once again the star-cross'd couple of Newcastle United and the fans waltz down the road of uncertainty, hope dashed against the rocks, and of Hatem Ben Arfa.

Carling Cup: Ameobi subverts Carroll as New Messiah

Two high-profile debuts down for two improbable victories. In Sol Campbell's first game in a Newcastle shirt the Magpies pulled off another unlikely victory away at Chelsea, a team previously undefeated this season. Following Saturday's win at Everton, the Tyneside faithful are singing as loudly as ever and charmingly, slightly off-pitch.

Campbell's influence was moderate at best. A dubious penalty notwithstanding, the team shopped three goals, at times looked outpaced by a very speedy Chelsea unit and were saved only by an injury-time header by Shola Ameobi, since anointed on internet chatboards as Newcastle's New New Saviour. Rumours abound that the two-goal hero may replace last month's passé New Saviour Andy Carroll as target man for the weekend's match is tempered only with a modicum of talk about how Carroll has actually played recently.

There's talk of silverware – after six weeks, no less – and in Hughton and his boys the Toon army have found a club they feel are worthy of their support. Their depth, rightly questioned in the past, has perhaps become a strength as the Gaffer saw fit to play Ryan Taylor (what a free kick – sublime!), Peter Lovenkrands, old warhorse Alan Smith, Campbell and Ameobi alongside the youth of Nile Ranger, Tim Krul, Haris Vukcic and Shane Ferguson. From all accounts, Ferguson and Ranger were particularly effective, if occasionally overawed by the spectacle of playing a strong Blues side at Stamford Bridge.

With the news that No. 1 Goalkeeper Steve Harper is out (shoulder) until Christmas, discussion now centres even more around Krul and his suitability to replace the Grand Old Man of Tyneside Keeping. The Dutchman must be aware of new talk linking the club to an emergency loan deal for Shay Given but that for now remains pie-in-the-sky. Krul's game on Wednesday was just fair as he showed glimpses of talent but failed show display the requisite strength to command his area effectively. If a goalie fails to command his area, he must be an excellent communicator and a lack of this communication between himself and Campbell – as well as Ranger's ineffectual box presence – was at fault for the first goal.

An encouraging win to continue an promising start to the season. That the fans are discussing silverware is obviously both amusing, premature and true-to-form, but with a start like they've had there's no reason that Newcastle can't continue to surprise their opposition. Silverware, however, remains a long way away.

Sol Campbell makes his debut for Newcastle United

After an ill-fated experience playing in black and white last year with Notts County, Sol Campbell tonight gets his enormous frame up to make his first bow as Newcastle United alum against Chelsea. It could prove a very interesting occasion as during his cup of coffee at the Emirates last season he proved he can still be a very effective positional defender, if not as athletically dominant as he was in his pomp. And to be fair, Sol's pomp was a decade ago.

Newcastle seems well-endowed with athletically-limited-but-good-positionally centre backs this season especially considering Steven Taylor has yet to feature due to his pre-season shoulder dislocation. Fabricio Coloccini could perhaps be the archetypal leaden-footed battalion commander and understudy Mike Williamson has won many initial skeptics over since his transfer from Portsmouth in January. It's likely that we'll see at least Williamson tonight as Chris Hughton experiments with a squad which has remained relatively steadfast over the course of the season so far.

Tim Krul and Ole Soderberg take the reins as goalkeeper and backup after Steve Harper's shoulder injury and they may face a flurry of peppered shots from the young legs fielded by Chelsea. Blues boss Carlo Ancelotti has made noises about starting several youthful players, especially as Captain John Terry and playmaker Frank Lampard sit out with injuries. Dan Sturridge has looked impressive, particularly in last week's Champions League tie and is blessed with pace that would win him selection for most countries Olympics squads, while Gael Kakuta has been long-trumpeted as the speedy future of Chelsea's left flank. To match up with another Premier League side in the third round of the competition could be disappointing for Premiership sides seeking advancement and eventually silverware, but could Chelsea really look for more encouragement for their youth than being faced with sticks-in-the-mud Campbell and Alan Smith?

Campbell comes to Newcastle after rebuffing interest from other EPL clubs including Arsenal. On arriving Tyneside, he said it was nice to feel wanted again and the Toon army should be confident he in him being more an asset this term than a hindrance. But in choosing to debut him in this match, Hughton's chosen a curious time. Sure, it's the Carling Cup and no-one will mind particularly if Newcastle are beaten by heavily-favoured Chelsea. But with his pace comparable to a guy in a bogged wheelchair the fixture very much becomes feast or famine. Either Campbell will be exposed for pace or he will triumph simply by his smarts; middle ground will prove very difficult to come across.

To quote Aussie race driver Dick Johnson “Old Age and dirty tricks will always triumph over youth and exuberance”. Agreeable sentiments you'll agree. But this age-old Immovable Object and Irresistible force dilemma could be skewed when the youth of Chelsea choose not to run through the Immovable Object but around it.

Game 5: Everton vs Newcastle United

It's taken all of 62 minutes for Hatem Ben Arfa to prove his worth to Newcastle. His wonderful strike against Everton has turned English admirers-from-afar into disciples. The goal was magnificent – controlling the ball, wrong-footing two opponents and firing a left-footed screamer into Tim Howard's top corner. It was a inescapable, masterful piece of football genius and one for which the crowds of Marseille perhaps are pining given their sputtering start in Ligue 1.

That on his full debut for Newcastle he produced such magic is only to be expected, really. There's never been any debate about his footskills, with more questions raised above shoulder level than below. His elegant manner on the ball is only emphasised by his nuggetiness and ability to stand up in the challenge. His goal proved that his left foot especially is a cannon.

The more unexpected comment came to me this morning with ESPN Soccernet's headline: “Hughton hints at permanent deal for Ben Arfa”. I'm sorry, what? This is a headline? Of course they're looking for a permanent deal, he's the most naturally skilled player – and probably the most talented player – the Toon have had since Alan Shearer turned 30. Why wouldn't you try to sign him? For Newcastle, the loan deal for Ben Arfa was never a “try before you buy”, but more Ben Arfa getting a free look into life Tyneside before committing to becoming Andy Carroll's competition for the title of Next Messiah. Unable to meet Marseille's straight-up asking price over the summer, they'll have to pony up the pounds in January (or at season's end) to keep him. That they have first option to buy is a very encouraging sign as his performances as “feature” player in the Toon midfield could well pique interest in the Frenchman.

That his full debut was accompanied by that of Cheick Tiote can hardly have hurt HBA. The Ivorian was superb as he completed all of his 43 passes and provided a strength and mobility in the midfield which the game-but-overmatched Alan Smith has heretofore unable to provide. With Smith undoubtedly the weakest link in the centre of the park and Danny Guthrie yet to return, the fervent Toon Army hope is the troika of Tiote, Barton and Guthrie are able to keep Smith from the side, as disappointing as that would be for such a likeable sort.

In an otherwise uneventful match, the Toon defence looked solid – as usual – and the pace on the flanks stood up well after having looked slightly misguided over the past two matches; Routledge had a good chance and it appeared the Toffee fullbacks were at times unable to cope with his and HBA's speed. Mike Williamson and Fab Coloccini again showed their mettle against forwards completely devoid of jinks and tricks – as this season has shown, Beckford's pace could well have troubled the pairing but they were able to cope with minimum of fuss. That they were also able to nullify the aerial prowess of Marouane Fellaini must go down as another feather in their caps; however a slightly smaller feather as the other Evertonian bombardier Tim Cahill was injured and unable to play.

The biggest question raised by Saturday's match though concerns the Goalkeeper. With Steve Harper going down at the thirty-fifth minute with a shoulder injury it left young Tim Krul to hold the fort. Highly rated by the Newcastle coaching staff, this may be the opportunity he requires to step up and show he has what it takes to replace Harper long-term. Rumours abound the Magpies are in the market for a new goalie – Shay Given, anyone? – but there are a few question marks concerning Shay's potential Tyneside return. Surely Given must be conscious of the old adage “Never go back”? And secondly, the Newcastle defence has been served well with the vocal, organised Harper where commanding a defence ranks below shot-stopping on Given's list of attributes. The position for the short term is Krul's to lose; though he's thought well of, there are bountiful question marks about his ability not necessarily to stop shots, but to command and organise a defence – in that way he, like Given, is a very different type of keeper to Harper. That Coloccini and Sol Campbell have some of these administrative skills is a plus and takes some of the pressure off the 22 year-old, but Harper has been crucial to the defensive watertightness that NUFC has attempted this year, so the changeover itself could be a destabilising influence.

Andy Carroll: Next Toon messiah, Next England messiah?

Let's get the facts straight first up. Andy Carroll has made nine premier league starts for Newcastle. In those starts he's scored precisely four goals as a starter, all of them in his last two matches. The clamour for him to represent England in the Qualifiers for the European Championships during the Three Lions' two matches against Bulgaria & Switzerland has grown to fever pitch and as the Magpies fought to a draw with Wolves last weekend he was personally scouted by Franco Baldini, the England Assistant Manager.

There's no question that the kid has talent. He's been the pride and hope for the Toon army since he was barely 18, all while sporting a frame that makes Kevin Davies blush. He's a big lad. But to further flesh out the picture, he's aerobically very capable, runs to the right places on the pitch, and is a burly sort who doesn't mind contact and thus very good at creating enough time in the box for himself or others to shoot. The accuracy of those shots, however, is another matter but he's still only 21 and polish often comes later in a career.

So why or why not would Andy Carroll be a good target man for England? It's safe to say that the alternatives now Emile Heskey has retired – err. … Carlton Cole, Bobby Zamora, Davies and even Peter Crouch – don't fill opposition defences with dread. And, Crouch aside (but he's hurt at present anyway), none are in good form. You can be assured that Carroll's never played better and that he's been a handful for such experienced hands as Richard Dunne & Jody Craddock over the past two weeks. Combine this with his play against Man U's Vidic & Evans where he really should have scored and it paints a tantalising picture.

Should Fabio Capello and the England hierarchy feel that he could be the man to partner Wayne Rooney at the Euros in 2012, then it is now that he should be brought into the squad. Let him train with the England A-listers. Run him out in friendlies and “safe” second-legs until he gets a solid international footing. But this must be a consistent effort by management – given the noise surrounding his past fortnight, one of the only reasons he hasn't been picked already is the question remains if he's ready for prime-time. If he's not ready, he can be hastened into that readiness by allowing him to play roles here and there consistently within the national set-up. Tell him your plans for him. Communicate that and let him know that he has a place in forward plans should his form merit it.

To be honest, should he not play for England, I wouldn't really care. In fact, in these blog pages just a few days ago I wrote that it was perhaps premature to speak of him being the perfect foil for Rooney. He isn't the perfect foil for Rooney right now – he still needs polish for sure and he's quite simply not quite ripe – but if he has any chance of developing into that foil then that needs to be nurtured and encouraged over time rather than simply picking him if there's no one else available or because he fits in now but not later. If management doesn't expect a player to be playing at those Euros in two years time, it's nonsensical to expect that player to participate in these qualifiers. In two years, Andrew Carroll may be the best target-man in England. He also may very well not be – there is a lot of water to cross under a lot of bridges before he even approaches the status of a Didier Drogba. But if he has even the slightest chance to developing into that power forward, then pick him! What has England got to lose in the first games of a new qualifying campaign?

Game 2: Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Game 2, 22nd August 2010
Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa

What had previously been promised has now been delivered. 6-0! With performances like this, Newcastle will surely end the year Champions of Europe!!

A truly emphatic victory yesterday for the men in black and white, especially as they were missing probable first-choice defenders – Sol Campbell the latest victim of the flab monster while Steven “I'm not a Doctor Who character” Taylor once again has shown all the resistance to injury of uncooked pasta. Unsurprisingly it was defensively the Toon looked most suspect as Villa initially were able to exploit the backs for pace; the inevitable calamity came with both central defenders and goalkeeper Steve Harper played tortoise to Ashley Young's hare and the subsequent concession of a lazy penalty. Fortunately, the spot-kick was taken by John Carew and the ball is still gaining velocity somewhere between Mars and Jupiter.

As the game wore on Newcastle's size and strength came to the fore against a lightweight Claret lineup unable to cope and the signs for the season are promising as they attack the division armed with chest-and-facial-hair sporting men's men and not skinny kids with horrible hair (sorry, that should read "and not skinny kids"). And Alan Smith who's some grotesque but likeable combination of the two.

Enterprise from the wide position s has long been a staple of success on Tyneside and yesterday was the same. Enrique, Gutierrez & Routledge all looked overmatched their last times out in the top flight, so it was quite surprising that it was from there that much of the thrust to their offense came. That they had a presence centrally at which to aim can't have hurt – Andy Carroll and his horrible hair delivering on four years of potential to present an immovable object (at least for Richard Dunne & Ciaran Clark) front and centre.

Given Chris Hughton's stated desire to move away from the 4-4-2 formation as immutable on Tyneside as track suits & chip butties to explore this year's “buzz” formation, the 4-2-3-1, I find myself asking if this is wisest given yesterday's win. Without getting carried away (obviously I'm not a 'Pies supporter) the lineup did as needed on the day and the relative safety and comfort afforded by the tried-and-true 4-4-2 could provide some refuge against sides not prone to disappearing at the slightest physical pressure like Aston Villa. The latest buzz-formation is fine but buttering bread is a simple task and as such, formations should be simple as well. Allowing Carroll to hold the ball up and involve his midfield mates, especially Kevin Nolan, is key and health, confidence & sanity willing he should provide the offensive fulcrum they can use to ensure safety.

The centre of midfield is the greatest question mark with back-row-of-the-bus boys Alan Smith and Joey Barton (complete with highly dubious moustache) vulnerable to the counter – the rumoured signing of Ivorian Cheik Tiote may provide the athleticism and mobility required mid-field. Also, given that he is – and let's be fair – a massive tool, anyone who thinks Joey Barton can stay out of trouble and injury belongs on the same short bus as Mike Ashley and Joe Kinnear.

A lesser stated reason for optimism is in their overall experience. This meant they weren't overawed playing at home in the top flight against a team playing in Europe. This team, if they believe it, has the bodies to avoid thumpings from even the very best and if that self-belief holds (and the win yesterday should have bought them a month full of confidence at worst) the club should ask enough questions of the mid table to survive and promise hope for future years.

All these positives can't hide the shadowy question marks over some aspects of the Magpies this season – they're only a Carroll injury, the inevitable Barton brain-fart and a likely Sol Campbell spontaneous combustion from Mars-rover type disaster – but signs point to them having enough about them to resist the slide back into the championship. An encouraging way to start the home campaign.

Newcastle United - Up and Down

(written 20th August)

The thing is, I don't even like Newcastle United. I don't like Newcastle as a city, I abhor the misguided fervour of their fans, I dislike their whole “Geordies against the World” attitude and their tedious search for their next messiah. They field a squad with Joey Barton for crying out loud. Mike Ashley as an owner is a mad genius at best while the whole Northern Rock sponsor-going-bankrupt fiasco was amusing if nothing else. Their tawdry rivalries with whoever they next choose to disdain are of supreme indifference to me and in pure footballing terms their team has served up boring, predictable sludge for the best part of the noughties. Even this squad can't seem to do the convincing “new, fresh look” demanded, content to serve up not one but three Roberto Baggio lookalikes. How can you admire a player who sports hair – let alone fists – like Andy Carroll?

That said, the demands placed on the team when compared against their results from the last sixty years is what intrigues me most about Newcastle United as the season approaches. The fans and board have always prided themselves on their “big club” status while the results hardly reflect those that mark a club as “big” - the expectation that the club will win every game while scoring myriad goals has marred several winning seasons as failures. This expectation is what defines Newcastle United and given their inability – self-inflicted or not – to meet those expectations that definition becomes the dichotomy of failure.

The story intrigues me – the dichotomy is like the proverbial car crash, difficult to look away – a club insisting on revelling in former glories, still feeling they're part of the fabric of the Premier Division. A delusional view perhaps, but undoubtedly passionate. Being a regional centre with a solid football pedigree presents a compelling argument as to why they matter but in no way does that past success or full stadium prove that they're important.

Season 2010-11 for Newcastle United is a story unto itself. The expectation forms the backdrop with starker colours added with the ludicrous transfer fees spent during the 1990s and 2000s, the list of past-prime superstars who've gone Tyneside to die and ultimately the ignominy of relegation in 2009, the worst kind of humiliation as they sunk without a cry while Phil Brown's – Phil Brown! - Hull City, a truly awful team, survived. Then new – old – hope as those ageing vets took apart the Championship. This year, the club's playing staff is largely unchanged: James Perch has come in, Nicky Butt has gone out; and the makeup of the team is similar to the fallen team of 2008-09. Large changes have been promised since that day where Hull survived and the Newcastle faithful died a little but lofty wage bills have prevented major player sales and the club has essentially been treading water.

So where does this put the 2010-11 edition of Newcastle United FC? With a roster of players good enough to achieve safety given the relative weakness of this Premier League season and not weighed down as much as in the past with fan and board expectations of greatness previously the norm at St. James' Park. The squad as presently constituted is no better than a twelfth-placed team, but no worse than a sixteenth-best. Their size and strength in midfield and defence should overpower weaker back-halves like WBA & Blackpool.

The pieces are all in place for a highly intriguing season which made me think – how about following the season dispassionately? Obviously I can't follow the team – apparently you can't do that authentically unless you can trace your ancestry back four generations Tyneside – but the story is there. To maintain minimal interest in the quality of results but in the club in general.

Let's see how it goes.