To sign or not to sign?

Six million pounds is a lot of money to spend on a gimp. After having both tibia and fibula broken by an uncontrolled tackle by Nigel de Jong, signing Hatem Ben Arfa on a permanent basis becomes an expensive gamble for Mike Ashley, Chris Hughton and Colin Calderwood. With the figure of six million pounds being thrown around as the the agreed price to complete his signing, suddenly his loan period becomes less of a “try before you buy” and more a tantalising glimpse of what his precocious talent may allow the club to accomplish.

During his glittering few games on Tyneside before the unfortunate injury, Ben Arfa looked a good investment for the 1.5 million the Magpies paid for his loan stint. He provided a touch of magic to an otherwise pedestrian and staid midfield. Had he been able to keep his head and not fall out with either manager or teammates, Newcastle taking up the first chance to sign him for good at season's end was a certainty. But with the surgery to repair the break likely to keep him out of action until the end of the season, the still-penny-saving Newcastle United finds itself in a quandary. Do they take the punt and sign the obviously talented but also-obviously erratic creator, or do they feel his injury could make the six million too high a price?

It breaks down like this: there's a significant chance that Hatem Ben Arfa will never be the same player again. He is undoubtedly a talent, but as the Magpies have discovered the hard way with Alan Smith, once a player breaks a leg there are no guarantees that he is able to repeatedly produce the athleticism needed in a competitive league like the EPL. And unfortunately Smith isn't the only example: once Eduardo suffered his horrifying injury at the hands (or feet) of Martin Taylor he was unable to keep pace with the Premier League and has since moved to Shakhtar Donetsk and a lower standard of league. Questions remain about Aaron Ramsey's restorative powers and whether his leg will be able to stand up to the punishment of another strong challenge. Antonio Valencia's Man Utd career could be finished soon after starting.

But there is a chance that HBA will be the player that many expect: a full France international, a creator of chances and goals – as borne witness to by his magical strike against Everton. He's only 23 and a potential superstar. In an age of nonsensical transfer prices, six million pounds is an absolute snip for a player – a difference maker – of that quality and promise.

With Alan Smith's lame-duck status fresh in their minds and Mike Ashley still attempting to deal the club, it's hard to believe that the bankers will look well upon an investment which isn't a sure thing. The first question is whether or not the Toon will use their first option to buy before the end of the season. If they do, they will be damned with a player who could stumble about a shell of his former self. If not, they risk the next great French player showing his wares at Juventus, Rangers or Sevilla. As simple as it sounds, they don't want that clause to expire as there's no possibility that Ben Arfa will play next season at home club Marseille because he and coach Didier Deschamps don't get along. He will be somewhere else next term, whether it be Newcastle or elsewhere.

Questions remain as to whether or not Newcastle even can survive this season. If they are relegated, this becomes a moot point as there is no chance HBA will play for a second-string team. But whatever happens, it willl be a curious few months for the Toon. Once again the star-cross'd couple of Newcastle United and the fans waltz down the road of uncertainty, hope dashed against the rocks, and of Hatem Ben Arfa.

Game 7: Manchester City vs Newcastle United

As startlingly and dramatically as he arrived, Hatem Ben Arfa's season is likely over courtesy a tackle by Man City destroyer Nigel de Jong. This loss – in the fourth minute of Sunday's match – compounded Newcastle's defeat to a curiously set up Citizens team whose aim seemed to be ensuring defensive stability at the expense of offensive creativity. That City chose to display their creativity at the wing position however was astute as, usually for this season, right-back James Perch was the weakest link in an otherwise tightly-fought game.

Perch has achieved the admirable record of seven games for six cards this term as he struggles to establish himself as the Toon right-back for the future. Perhaps Ryan Taylor's spectacular first performance for the season last week at Chelsea has unsettled him further; again on Sunday he was exploited as David Silva and James Milner consistently forced him into poor defensive position and his inexperience in the top-flight put his teammates under pressure time and again.

He was hardly the only one though. With Coloccini – unexpectedly Newcastle's “pacy” central defender – injured in the 36^th minute, Hughton was forced to call upon Sol Campbell to partner Mike Williamson. Williamson was made to pay for his lack of legspeed as he gave away a controversial penalty: from the stands, it looked a certain penalty while replays only clouded the matter, but whatever the result he must be thankful that he didn't receive the automatic red card that should have accompanied the spot kick. That the Tyneside centre-backs (and indeed Perch) are so immobile seems to be their Achilles heel: forever being beaten for pace, they are then forced to tackle from inopportune positions and risk fouling the opposing forwards. That they have been able to achieve a measure of defensive strength so far this year is credit to their technique but it is an ill omen for whenever they are face speedy strikers.

That Adam Johnson went around two Toon defenders (Enrique and Barton) before beating Tim Krul – who has so far delivered exactly what was expected of him: good shot stopping but less of a box-presence – in the 75^th minute is an indictment on the defenders Hughton has used this season. It is understandable to rely on Enrique and Perch given the paucity of options but the entire back four has too often been shaped too squarely and allowed opposing defenders to break the offside trap and to create easy chances. That the scorer was Johnson, with the most tricks of any Sky Blue winger, is unsurprising as he again is a mobile flanker rather than a positional threat.

Jonas Gutierrez was superb on the left flank and will need to maintain performances of this level should creative hub HBA remain on the disabled list. His 24^th minute goal following up his own cross left five Man City defenders bewildered and bemused in his wake. More repeats of a similar tune from Newcastle though – presence through the wings (if slightly effeminate ones with lightweights Routledge and Gutierrez), with the impressive Barton and Tiote manning the centre of midfield.

Shola Ameobi made his third straight start for the Magpies, leaving Andy Carroll on the bench. The Boy Wonder came on with thirteen minutes remaining in place of Kevin Nolan who was both sporadically effective and subdued. Long a whipping boy of the terraces, Ameobi scored thrice in his first two starts this year to earn himself another attempt in the opening lineup and comments from the manager (thinly veiled at Carroll) that no-one's starting place is considered holy. Even neutral observers have can say Ameobi's had a better fortnight than the New New Messiah. Unfortunatley, Shola basically doesn't have the same ability or Greek-god physique that Carroll sports, meaning he doesn't have the same happy knack of creating time for himself or others in the opposition's area. His appeals for a late penalty were optimistic but had he not been dispossessed as easily by Gareth Barry ten minutes before, perhaps the Toon wouldn't have needed a late spot kick. Simply by virtue of their respective talent levels, expect Carroll to start again at home to Wigan after the international break.

Another close defeat by Newcastle. They seem to be making a good fist so far of staying up – apart from the first match against Man Utd they've been in every match until quite late. However, it is time for the Magpies to start turning close-run defeats and draws into wins. This will come with greater defensive efficiency and more consistency going forward from their so-called flair players.

Game 5: Everton vs Newcastle United

It's taken all of 62 minutes for Hatem Ben Arfa to prove his worth to Newcastle. His wonderful strike against Everton has turned English admirers-from-afar into disciples. The goal was magnificent – controlling the ball, wrong-footing two opponents and firing a left-footed screamer into Tim Howard's top corner. It was a inescapable, masterful piece of football genius and one for which the crowds of Marseille perhaps are pining given their sputtering start in Ligue 1.

That on his full debut for Newcastle he produced such magic is only to be expected, really. There's never been any debate about his footskills, with more questions raised above shoulder level than below. His elegant manner on the ball is only emphasised by his nuggetiness and ability to stand up in the challenge. His goal proved that his left foot especially is a cannon.

The more unexpected comment came to me this morning with ESPN Soccernet's headline: “Hughton hints at permanent deal for Ben Arfa”. I'm sorry, what? This is a headline? Of course they're looking for a permanent deal, he's the most naturally skilled player – and probably the most talented player – the Toon have had since Alan Shearer turned 30. Why wouldn't you try to sign him? For Newcastle, the loan deal for Ben Arfa was never a “try before you buy”, but more Ben Arfa getting a free look into life Tyneside before committing to becoming Andy Carroll's competition for the title of Next Messiah. Unable to meet Marseille's straight-up asking price over the summer, they'll have to pony up the pounds in January (or at season's end) to keep him. That they have first option to buy is a very encouraging sign as his performances as “feature” player in the Toon midfield could well pique interest in the Frenchman.

That his full debut was accompanied by that of Cheick Tiote can hardly have hurt HBA. The Ivorian was superb as he completed all of his 43 passes and provided a strength and mobility in the midfield which the game-but-overmatched Alan Smith has heretofore unable to provide. With Smith undoubtedly the weakest link in the centre of the park and Danny Guthrie yet to return, the fervent Toon Army hope is the troika of Tiote, Barton and Guthrie are able to keep Smith from the side, as disappointing as that would be for such a likeable sort.

In an otherwise uneventful match, the Toon defence looked solid – as usual – and the pace on the flanks stood up well after having looked slightly misguided over the past two matches; Routledge had a good chance and it appeared the Toffee fullbacks were at times unable to cope with his and HBA's speed. Mike Williamson and Fab Coloccini again showed their mettle against forwards completely devoid of jinks and tricks – as this season has shown, Beckford's pace could well have troubled the pairing but they were able to cope with minimum of fuss. That they were also able to nullify the aerial prowess of Marouane Fellaini must go down as another feather in their caps; however a slightly smaller feather as the other Evertonian bombardier Tim Cahill was injured and unable to play.

The biggest question raised by Saturday's match though concerns the Goalkeeper. With Steve Harper going down at the thirty-fifth minute with a shoulder injury it left young Tim Krul to hold the fort. Highly rated by the Newcastle coaching staff, this may be the opportunity he requires to step up and show he has what it takes to replace Harper long-term. Rumours abound the Magpies are in the market for a new goalie – Shay Given, anyone? – but there are a few question marks concerning Shay's potential Tyneside return. Surely Given must be conscious of the old adage “Never go back”? And secondly, the Newcastle defence has been served well with the vocal, organised Harper where commanding a defence ranks below shot-stopping on Given's list of attributes. The position for the short term is Krul's to lose; though he's thought well of, there are bountiful question marks about his ability not necessarily to stop shots, but to command and organise a defence – in that way he, like Given, is a very different type of keeper to Harper. That Coloccini and Sol Campbell have some of these administrative skills is a plus and takes some of the pressure off the 22 year-old, but Harper has been crucial to the defensive watertightness that NUFC has attempted this year, so the changeover itself could be a destabilising influence.

Hatem Ben Arfa signs for Newcastle

Saturday 28th August

Newcastle United sign Hatem Ben-Arfa on loan

To overestimate the importance of this deal would be impossible. In Ben-Arfa (HBA) the Magpies have suddenly acquired the dazzle they need to go with their razzle, the salt to go with their already-ample pepper and the touch of class needed in order to make this season a success.

There's no doubt that HBA is a technically skilled and proficient player; in fact he automatically assumes Kevin Nolan's role as the creative hub of the side (eeew – I just wrote the words “Kevin Nolan” and “creative hub” in the same sentence), but his game does come with a few downsides. First of all, he's a notorious head case capable of destroying dressing room harmony in as much time as it takes for Steven Taylor to get injured. Secondly, he's a lightweight player in the same vein as fellow Marseille product, Samir Nasri. His lack of stature is of secondary importance however as in Nolan, Smith & Barton he's surrounded by several big bodied players able to both take physical punishment and should needs arise, defend him; in fact having a small-bodied creator should provide enough offensive change-up that this potential drawback can only be labeled “potential” rather than “as certain as Joey Barton is mad”.

To say he becomes the jewel in Newcastle's crown is misguided – there really aren't any other jewels on Tyneside to which he can be compared – just a bunch of solid players. Chris Hughton seems to have taken the “Every dog has his day” approach – and assembled a bunch big, solid hounds in midfield, hoping that on any one day an outstanding Kevin Nolan or Joey Barton game can see them competitive. But Ben Arfa's different, a wonderfully-skilled player capable of perhaps unlocking regularly the better defences in the Premiership.

His attributes aren't really the point here. What's going to prove crucial to the fortunes of Newcastle and their supporters is whether HBA is able to harness his immense talent in this Magpie side. ESPN's Bill Simmons has long purported the “Knucklehead theory” where any team is able to have one clown without trouuble. But as soon as that side invests in a second knucklehead, they play off each other creating malady after malady for management. Ben Arfa comes with “damaged goods” stamped prominently across his shipping crate, why else would Marseille have let him go? His well-documented dalliances with “suits” and teammates alike – he's come to fisticuffs with at least four separate teammates and hasn't spoken to Marseille manaager Didier Deschamps for six months – prove he has at best the temperament of a pro athlete, at worst that of a badly spoiled child. Mis a healthy dose of this into ample helpings of Joey Barton and Andy Carroll? The challenge for Toon management is obviously now to balance his top-drawer skills with his bottom-drawer attitude, and Hughton's the kind of “players' manager” who could either bring out the best in HBA or simply be fried by season-long exposure to a loaded ballistic missile. Suffice to say the season of Newcastle just got more interesting.