Dallas vs Miami - the NBA Finals rematch noone predicted (or wanted)

When Miami signed Chris Bosh and LeBron James in July last year, not only sports fans but the world sat up and took notice. The best player in the league changed teams of his own volition and took deserved heat (oww ... unintentional pun) for leaving his hometown club for beaches and booty. And rings.

When the Heat filled out their roster with a few role players - Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem - and a series of stiff big guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, Jamaal Magloire, Erick Dampier and Joel Anthony, they were the popular tip to make the NBA finals even though their squad wasn't originally built for this year. Their start was slow - what would you expect with three new major cogs? - but as the 2010-11 NBA regular season rounded to a close, the Heat had gathered speed to the point where they dominated East playoff opponents Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago.

Of Dallas, it seems only Jason Terry really believed the team was destined for the NBA finals. Their playoffs have been a symphony conducted by Dirk Nowitzki and with feature solos from Terry and mighty mite Jose Juan Barea. The squad, hard and veteran, have coped admirably with the loss of starting SF (and likely LeBron stopper) Caron "Tuff Juice" Butler. They ploughed through Portland, the Lakers and Oklahoma City on their way to the rematch.

Rematch, because the teams met in the 2006 Finals. Only four players remain from those squads - Nowitzki, Terry, Dwyane Wade and Haslem; but the hurt still encompasses the Mavericks organisation. Much of the backroom staff remains the same and it's an easy bet that Mark Cuban wants an NBA Championship so badly he can taste it. But it's not the popular rematch that league observers throught we were getting: before the playoffs started, most analysts predicted a Chicago/Los Angeles decider, harking back to the twentieth anniversary of their 1991 encounter, a series which launched "Michael Jordan ... oh ... spec-TACK-ular move", a rain of John Paxson threes and the last games in Magic's first Lakers stint.

Nobody wanted this finals match outside Florida and Texas because, quite simply, the Heat are the bad guys (see WWE Superstar Chris Bosh at 2:15 - so schlock it's funny) and Dallas, until the playoffs, were seen as the "same old" - a veteran squad with minimal personnel changes from an ultimately unsuccessful 2010 campaign. As rematches went, the ones people thought likely were Lakers/Bulls, Lakers/Celtics and perhaps even Bulls/Blazers. But not the Mavs and the Heat. That both clubs have managed to proceed to their current peak is testament that really, nothing beats experience - or all-timers playing out of their collective skins, as LeBron and Dirk have.

As much as the Heat are nigh-on unstoppable, the popular vote will swing to Dallas. For redemption (game six, 2006, the infamous game brought into question by disgraced referee Tim Donaghy), for popular star Nowitzki, who's dominated the Western Conference playoffs and cohort Jason Kidd who has toiled for seventeen years without a Championship. Finally, they'll be favoured just because they're not the Heat. The South Floridians became the league's arch-enemy so fast thanks to that gaudy opening ceremony and the kerfuffle surrounding "The Decision" that it would take another Kobe case to dethrone them. A ring would start the process, but only increase the target on their backs next year (if there is one).

Predictions: Going with the head rather than heart here - Dirk and JJ Barea dominate just enough offensively for designated Wade and LeBron stoppers to do the same (just enough) to get the Mavericks through in seven.

Thanks to Bill Simmons for spec-TACK-ular phrasing & Chicagonow.com for the photo.

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Paul Scholes Retires

Paul Scholes has retired and suddenly, Manchester United's summer transfer activity has become much more frantic. The Great Ginger One has been irreplaceable for nearly twenty years and it is now that Sir Alex is finally forced to choose a successor. It speaks volumes of Paul Scholes that the search for his replacement will include only the world's very best players. They still may not fill his shoes.

That's because Paul Scholes leaves behind a very unconventional set of footwear. Part of his appeal has been not his wonderful play, but the combination of factors which made his career unique - endearing "local lad" status, a combination of skills ranging from truly sublime passing to simply awful tackling, his generation - the last of Fergie's fledglings, his reserved off-park nature and finally, most importantly, the fact he never rocked the United boat. Paul Scholes, while being amongst the best midfielders in the world, always had a great sense of where he belonged in the game: no transfer requests, no major protracted contract snits, no dramas. The Great Ginger One was a one-club man, content - and what's more - proud of it. He just fit in.

Paul Scholes' ability to pick out a pass may be his defining on-field feature, but that can be replaced. His innate knowledge of how to fit in around Carrington can't be taught, meaning his replacement is unlikely to go down in United folklore as he has done. No matter his onfield exploits, his mix of on- and off-field character means for a special place in the Red Devil army's hearts. The Great Ginger One knew how to fit in: to a system, a formation, a team, a brotherhood, a city and a family.

It's that knowledge of fit that empowered him to walk away when the time was absolutely right. As he timed passes, he timed his retirement. It's been obvious to all who watch United that the great man was slowing down, no matter how spectacular his first two months of season 2010-011 were. As much as it pains to admit, he didn't deserve a starting berth during Saturday's Champions' League final and even had his play warranted it, he wouldn't have been able to maintain the frantic pace for much over 60 minutes. His legs have gone and it's the right time for him to move on. For him to stay - which he'd be welcome to do, of course - he would perhaps hold United back.

Harsh words? Perhaps. Ring of truth? Unfortunately, yes. Scholes would have been welcome to continue - indeed Ferguson has tried to convince him to play on several times without luck - but to do so would involve Scholes' inclusion in United's 25-man squad and perhaps prevent United reinforcing the centre of midfield. Paul Scholes, with his innate "feel for the game", felt he could reasonably give no more to the team as a player. As such, the honourable decision was to move on.

When discussing The Great Ginger One, it's impossible to forget his skills. As soon as he burst onto the scene in a League Cup match against Port Vale in 1994, his armoury was nearly complete, boasting constant movement, a short-range game and longer passes which moved as if directed by radar. Add to that a fearsome shot and defensive ... err ... excitability (?) and it's no wonder Fabio Capello attempted to persuade him to end six years of International retirement and go to the World Cup at age 35. Capello thought him one of England's best centre mids: given the Three Lions' performance, he may have been right. Again, Scholes was aware of the fit, however - such a demanding campaign would have played major havoc with his (and therefore United's) early season form.

Paul Scholes will continue as a coach at United and for that, we should be glad. Don't expect visibility, but bet on improvement in United's youngsters. As Wayne Rooney said last week, "He doesn't say much, but when he does, you listen". Paul Pogba, Ravel Morrison and Tom Cleverley would do well to heed a man like The Great Ginger One. While his playing days have drawn to a close, his contributions to Manchester United are far from over.

Image one courtesy: http://www.soccerbyives.net/, second courtesy: mirror.co.uk

My Favourite Cricketer: Brian Lara

The first Balanced Sports and World Cricket Watch: "My Favourite Cricketer" is penned by the editor of WCW, David Siddall. It features the Samba King of West Indian batsmanship, Brian Lara.

From the age of 13-18 this aspiring top order batsmen would spend their summer holidays practically living at the Stoughton and Thurnby Cricket Club nets. Honing the particularities of your batting technique was the order of the day. But it wasn’t any English batsmen we were attempting to emulate (possibly with the exception of Graham Thorpe’s late cut). Rather we’d play around with the low grip of Tendulkar, the seemingly straight bat pull shot of Ponting, and the high back-lift and ferocious bat-speed of Lara.

Analysing the three players, arguably the finest three batsmen of their generation, leads to never-ending debates pertaining to the all time batting pantheon. Frankly, this gets tedious in less time than Marcus Trescothick had to react to this tracer bullet beamer. In short, I’d go for 1) Tendulkar 2) Lara, and 3) Ponting. Tendulkar’s longevity and imminent hundred hundreds record – one way of looking at that is he must have several hundreds he doesn’t even remember – account for his top spot.

But this piece is about favouritism and not statistics. And the love of cricket, being such a heavily mediated sport, owes its success just as much to aesthetic appeal as it does to run getting. Of the three players, it is Brian Lara’s elegance and flamboyance that makes him my favourite cricketer.

Early on in his career, Lara was able to stand on the shoulder of giants – Viv Richards, Malcolm Marshall (immense at 5”11), Ian Bishop, Curtly Ambrose and Courtney Walsh (both metaphorically and literally at 6”7 and 6”6 respectively) – in the tail end of West Indies dominance. In the latter half of his career, post 2000, West Indies cricket would fade, yet Lara would continue to make waves. And whether the West Indies was dominant or dormant, the hallmarks of Brian Lara’s batting would remain a constant.

These included aggression in attack and defence in equal measures, lightning footwork, fleet of foot to get down the pitch against the spinners, the highest back-lift in world cricket and the clunk of his back-lift unleashing timing that rivalled one of his idos – Viv Richards himself. He had a tendency to play every ball on its merits irrespective of the time of the day. Never has this been exemplified more than when he hit Robin Peterson for 28 runs in an over in Johannesburg in 2003-04 despite their being only 2 overs to go in the day.

Trademarks of the 466444 display are the shimmy down the wicket, 100% commitment to the stroke, and the lazy swing of the hands through the ball.

Besides the stunning aesthetics to the batting of Brian Charles Lara, he will go down in history as being the batsmen who turned big scores into mammoth scores time and time again. His maiden test match century, a whopping 277 in Sydney in only his 5^th test, was a sign of things to come. Had it not been for an over zealous run out, in all likelihood it would have been a triple century.

Lara would go on to be the only batsmen in history to record a century, double century, triple century, quadruple century and quintuple (?) century in first class cricket. In 1994, Lara was at the height of his powers as he surpassed Sober’s test record score of 365* with a score of 375 against England in Antigua and recorded the highest ever first class score of 501* in the space of only a few months. During the same period he recorded 7 first class centuries in 8 innings. Just how much of an immovable force he was can be seen in the awe of the faces of his Durham opponents and his Warwickshire teammates alike in the following video…

But despite being named the 1994 and 1995 Wisden leading cricketer of the year, Lara would arguably save his greatest ever innings for the Australians with a modest (by his standards) match-winning 153* in a 1-wicket win in Barbados in 1999 in a game that Steve Waugh described the greatest test he’d ever been involved in. The Wisden 100 has named it the second greatest ever knock in test cricket only behind Don Bradman’s 270 for Australia v England at Melbourne in 1936-37.

Having hit a double hundred in the previous game to resurrect the series for the West Indies, this innings would swing the series in the West Indies favour as they would lead 2-1. The poignancy of the knock made even more unbelievable when you consider the West Indies had possibly come off the back of the lowest point in their history – a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of South Africa. At 248 for 8, still requiring another 60 runs for victory, Lara had to take the bull by the horns with only Ambrose and Walsh in the hutch. Lara the ‘Lone Ranger’ of the Windies batting lineup seemingly becoming the constant theme as his career progressed. Although you might think otherwise if you believe the version of events that Courtney Walsh spun (surviving 5 balls at the death).

To try and attempt to analyse the legacy of Brian Charles Lara is a tall order. It predominantly lies as a batsman rather than a captain (Lara did guide the West Indies to the 2004 Champions Trophy and led from the front admirably however). Statistically, the record for the highest ever test score is the obvious choice. It was a choice that Matthew Hayden almost dented having hit Zimbabwe for 380 in Perth in 2003.

Fittingly in April 2004, Lara, not to be outdone, became the first ever man to score 400 in a test match at the same ground where he surpassed Sober’s original record. With today’s over rates and endless stoppages, it is a score that is unlikely to be eclipsed. But Lara’s legacy should transcend far beyond that of mere batting records.

Besides meeting Barack Obama and having a fantastic cricket video game named after him, Lara was the most entertaining and most flamboyant batsman of his generation. His only criticism could be that he perhaps lacked the mental toughness that Tendulkar demonstrated unerringly for over 20 years.

Nevertheless, when in the mood (a caveat that seems to explain the low points in Lara’s career), Lara’s stonewall defence like Rahul Dravid, aggression and strokeplay likeVirender Sehwag, combined with his footwork to spinners that remains unrivalled in world cricket today made him simply unplayable.

If the cricketing pantheon does the great man any justice, the image and memories of his batting will be forever immortalised, alongside the biggest scores in cricketing history.

Welcome to My Favourite Cricketer

Welcome to My Favourite Cricketer. This is a special feature which Balanced Sports and World Cricket Watch where we're inviting several of the world's leading cricket writers to submit pieces which explain the romance of their favourite cricket players.

This series will run throughout the Northern Summer/Southern Winter and week by week, piece by piece, will build a complete picture of some of the most influential players in memory.

Usually, you'll find that these might go back a few years as our formative years in the sport are those which have the greatest influence on us. For many of us, you'll see references back to our childhoods when the game was new and exciting.

We're asking our writers to compile works which really show you what they think of their cricket heroes, to try and get you to feel what they feel. They'll use videos, photos and plenty of other tools in this pursuit.

Each will be a labour built on fond memories, a joy to compose and, we hope, just as fun to read.

The undeserved revisionism of Barcelona FC

It's popular assumed knowledge that this current incarnation of Barcelona are one of best teams in football history. In this case, popular assumed knowledge is correct: Barcelona are one of the all-time greats.

What they aren't though, is deserving of the revisionism that circulates in some - minority and usually Real-supporting - areas which suggests they are unworthy of such a place in the pantheon because they occasionally play up contact. Apparently, the greatness of their football is somehow lessened by acts of dubious exaggeration exacted by players such as Sergio Busquets and Pedro. While it's true that some facets of the Barca playing group are prone to simulation, the occasional cynical challenge and even the odd "holier-than-thou" attitude, this shouldn't overshadow the beauty of their passing game.

Let's not forget about it, either. Busquets, Dani Alves and Pedro all earned such reputations after their Oscar-winning performances against arch-enemies Los Merengues. Plus, we're not talking the Bad Boys either (this shows off too much of their basketball for my liking, but it was the best example I could find of their numerous tactical cheap shots) where they actually tried to physically intimidate their opposition. What Barcelona do, they do well - pass the ball and then move. When they don't have the ball, they harry their opponents until it's turned over. It's a high-energy style which produces fouls. They is, like Popeye, what they is.

From a personal standpoint, revisionism has taken on a whole new life over the last fifteen years. With the rapid inflation in visibility that the internet and digital media has provided, we have easy access to more accumulated (human, of course) knowledge than the Matrix and as such, we second guess ourselves - and popular opinion. Some cases involve two-dimensional objects/characters receiving a gratuitous third dimension. The worst cases of this occur when pop-culture villains are given a back-story - Exhibit A: The Star Wars Prequels and Exhibit B: the entire premise of the musical/book "Wicked". The prosecution rests.

Once and for all: I don't care where Darth Vader came from. Or the bloody Wicked Witch of the West. Making established villains into heroes just doesn't fly - they're better left two-dimensional.

By living in an age where we have so much information and ways to express it, we often look for subtext where there is none. Some characters are better left in two dimensions, because in three dimensions they just look silly. The reverse it true with the current irritating tendency to draw Barcelona FC two-dimensionally.

Apparently, some quarters their legacy should be changed to a team of whiners who happened to play good football. This, plainly and simply, is not true. They are a brilliant team which employs some players who are prepared to feign injury to gain a tactical advantage.

There's no doubt in my mind that Barcelona are the best I've seen. They have three of the best four and maybe five of the ten most influential players in the world. But they want to win and do so by making the most of opportunities - in front of goal, or in front of the ref. This doesn't mean they don't deserve their place in the all-time greats - find me a "pantheon" team who wouldn't do the same.

In any "football almanac" written fifty years from now they'll be remembered rightly for their offensive skill, not for diving. Those occasional "simulation" incidents definitely deserve mention, but let's not have a (relatively) small issue change our wholesale perception of such a great team. That some elements acted (badly) in such a high profile match as the Champions' League Semi-Finals doesn't make them The Beast. It does provide more well-rounded analysis, however.

This Barcelona team are brilliant. Flawed slightly, perhaps, in some players' willingness to exaggerate injuries. Let's remember their greatness, not change them into a "dirty" team just for the sake of a story, or to be different.

Image of Darth Vader courtesy: howzyerteeth.beacondeacon.com

Image of Sergio Busquets courtesy: 11x2.com

Man U need efficiency to beat Barcelona in Champions' League Final

Sir Alex Ferguson says that his oppoenets are stronger, having grown in strength since their last encounter. That match, the 2009 Champions' League final, was almost the archetypal Barcelona symphony: composed by Pep Guardiola, conducted by Iniesta and Xavi and ultimately won through brilliant solos by Messi and Eto'o. United were second best that day, suffering from a lack of match-fitness and the unthinkably-important-in-2004 Darren Fletcher.

It was a magical match, even though after about sixty minutes it left the United fan with that horrible sinking feeling in the pit of their stomach. Remember, this was after Barcelona grew their halo but before their aura had fully taken hold. While the Catalans had been very lucky to escape Chelsea in the semi final (Didier Drogba's supernovaic "f*****g disgrace" match) and appeared to have trouble breaking down the Blues' defence. Popular opinion before the final swung to the Red Devils based on the flawed theorum of "Chelsea's defence troubled them and United' defence is better than theirs".

This year United appear in better touch and health, with the possible exception of Fletcher, who is still on the road back from a virus. They also, however, face an opponent who have become more machine than man in the time since they last played. Barcelona's gameplan will be the same as always: death by a thousand cuts, tiki-taka, pass-and-move offense. They can play that way due to defensive stanchions Pique and Puyol whose steadfastness is often overlooked when referring to world football's ultimate "goodies".

How can United's take Barcelona down?

Firstly, Sir Alex Ferguson can't afford to be sentimental with his team selection. Anderson has been in good touch and has solidified his position as a central midfielder of the future at Old Trafford, while Paul Scholes' legs, great servants though they be, have gone. Both have never been the most elegant defensive players, even if they do try. That means United's central midfield partnership should probably be Michael Carrick and Darren Fletcher which, while capable defensively, lacks a certain deconstructive element.

Ferguson's preference for a 4-5-1 away from home means that only one further central midfielder and that position belongs unquestionably to Ryan Giggs who provides that creative element. He, unlike contemporary Scholes, still deserves a starting berth as the team's creative hub. When faced with a minimum of possession, it's imperative to use best what you get: Fletcher and Carrick can keep the ball but it will be Giggs, Scholes or Anderson who use it.

Secondly, man-marking Messi, though potentially minimising his influence, would disregard the threat of Xavi and Iniesta, not to mention willo-the-wisps Villa and Pedro. United need to absorb Barca's pressure yet still have enough to counter-attack. While Jose Mourinho's Copa del Rey tactics won them the Cup, they proved only moderately successful (at best) during the other three Clasicos and it took Los Merengues away from their strengths. United's strength in 2010-11 has been their attitude and endeavour: they'll need both to win the ball from Barcelona.

Counterattacking could work but would would go against the 58% possession they've accumulated over the course of their Champions' League campaign. Over Guardiola' reign at the Camp Nou, they've lost eight league matches - five in that glorious first year - and four in the Champions' League. In those La Liga games, they've condeded an average of 34% possession (in 2010's only loss to Atletico) and 22% in this year's blemishes against Hercules and Real Sociedad. In the Champions' League, they've gone down to Rubin Kazan, Inter Milan, Shakhtar and Arsenal while controlling the ball a combined 69.25% of the time. United must understand that no matter how good they are, Barca will control the ball. Therefore, the Red Devils must make the most of whatever chances they get.

Thirdly, they need efficiency from the wings. Nani, while having almost every trick in the book, often tries to do too much, stifling attacking fluency. When on his game he's outstanding, but when he's not, it's obvious to see why Ferguson prefers Park and Valencia on the flanks. The Ecuadorian has been outstanding in an injury-limited campaign and lines up against possibly Barca's weakest position, left-back. Should Puyol play there, Valencia has the speed to take advantage of Captain Caveman's ageing wheels while alternative Adriano is a hot-and-cold proposition. Park's "up and at 'em" style where he tracks back to defend is a good option for negating the presence of Dani Alves, if not attacking a player who's renowned for his offensive prowess and spasmodic defense.

There's no strict way of beating the Catalans. Both Inter Milan and Chelsea proved the best way of beating Barca is to be solid defensively, to do everything possible to disrupt their game and hope like crazy that they have a bad day. Scoring from set pieces or from afar is a bonus. United should defend, defend, defend but to play their own game going forward whenever possible, using Valencia, Rooney and Park's creativity and Javier Hernandez's in-the-box predation.

Valencia Image courtesy telegraph.co.uk

Newsflash: Joel Selwood is not perfect. Just very close.

As far as youthful members of the AFL's elite, there are few who compare with Geelong's favourite son, Joel Selwood. Since his debut during that magical 2007 season, he's gone from the anointed "potential captain" to "talisman" to now a probable second to Cameron Ling in the Sleepy Hollow leadership. A popular early-season pick for the Brownlow Medal, his game has grown at nearly the same rate as his physique. From his first matches, he was one of the AFL's better midfielders and in 2008 he represented Victoria in the All-Star State of Origin match, high honours for a kid of 20.

Now his performance takes on more importance in a Cat midfield shorn of their 2007 pace and devoid of any Abletts. He and Jimmy Bartel are the key to the Geelong midfield, the jewels in their hooped crown. But there's a weakness becoming ever more apparent in his armour: Joel Selwood has the yips.

Not in a Josh Kennedy, Cam Mooney or even Rod "Tilt" Carter kind of way - Joel Selwood just can't seem to get the ball on target when shooting for goal. Remove the big white sticks and he's fine, posesssing the pinpoint delivery required for an elite player. But get him inside the forward fifty and his toughness suddenly doesn't cover scoring shots - he's booted 3.7 this year. And unfortunately for him, several of those behinds have been (relatively) easy misses. Never a goalscorer of note - at least, not since before his Bendigo Pioneer days - he has a total of 36 goals over the 101 games of his wonderful career.

This, in itself, isn't the worst thing in the world - there are very few perfect players, or even players without a weakness. Carey's flaws were his dicky shoulders and occasional dose of white-line fever, Ablett Sr was held back by his debatable off-field work ethic and a strange manner of thinking. Brendan Fevola's weakness is obviously the big squishy thing between his ears, Joel Selwood's fatal (only?) flaw is his scoring accuracy. Unlike running mate Bartel, Selwood has a 30-goal-a-season gap in his arsenal. (Ed: You don't know how much it hurts Matt to write this).

Why harp on such a star? Because with their newfound flair for the close result, Joel Selwood's inaccuracy could end up hurting the Cats. Several times throughout the season he's had the chance to convert on the run from 35-40 metres away and failed. Often those shots have been under only mild pressure.

It could be he doesn't slow his momentum enough before setting himself for the kick or even just that he freezes. I'm sure there are myriad other reasons he could be inaccurate that someone more technically-minded could answer, but the Cats' young leader needs to get this right or else his leadership in inaccuracy could cost Geelong a win or two at crucial times.

Teams look to their leaders for guidance. While no-one ever misses a goal on purpose, a good leader has the ability to inspire their teammates through their play, tacitly demanding accountability. While Selwood's play all over the park does this, his shooting for goal does not. The Cats have played six of their eight matches against teams currently in the eight and won by one, two, three, eleven, nineteen and twenty-one points. Each match swung in the balance for some time. One day, probably soon, Joel Selwood - possibly the third or fourth-best midfielder in the league - will step up to shoot for goal with the Cats needing him to score.

When that day comes, Chris Scott hopes he's over his yips.

Image courtesy: en.wikipedia.org

The Ten-Year Premiership Table

We've been working hard and mindlessly to bring you special stats pages on Balanced Sports. You can find out all about which players contribute most to their team scoring, how the English Premiership ladder would look over a decade, rather than a season, or how each EPL Goalkeeper performed last year compared to his peers.

Our newest addition is the 2002-11 Cumulative EPL Table. Take a peek to see how your club fared.

Enjoy!

What next for Birmingham City?

As part two of a three-part series, we investigate what the best options are for the relegated clubs to bounce straight back into the Premiership.

Sort out the Finances.

This is a tough one to figure and has overarching ramifications for everything that follows. Apparently Carson Yeung has had to sell shares in order to finance the club's expenditures this year and his - and the entire club's - financial footing has been called into question. Without the megabucks Premiership TV revenue and the increased costs of a Europa League campaign which really doesn't offer much in prize money, the club's finances only get murkier. This, of course, is much easier said than done.

Keep Alex McLeish.

Say what you will about his ability to direct an offense, Alex McLeish can really coach defensively. He escaped the Championship at the first attempt after relegation in 2008 with a less capable group of players and, finances notwithstanding, he can be confident that this squad would be the Championship's most defensively sound. He's a reasonably popular media man and after masterminding the club's Carling Cup win, he deserves the chance to lead the Brum into Europe, where he has experience after his time at Rangers.

Remove the big-salaried players.

Rather than throw good money after bad, let them walk for free if it frees the wage budget. That means you, Nikola Zigic. Central midfield duo Barry Ferguson and Lee Bowyer are amongst the Blues' highest paid players, but come with considerable downsides - neither has the legs any more to even do a convincing impression of a box-to-box midfielder. Their best days are past: if at all possible, retire Ferguson to Scotland and send Bowyer packing (as has been promised).

but...

If possible, find ways to keep: Roger Johnson, Scott Dann and Ben Foster.

Granted, all three may want to leave for pastures Premiership. Try to sell them on a Europa League campaign which Birmingham may do quite well in. If they still value EPL status, sell the most profitable/highest salaried of Johnson or Dann and use Curtis Davies as his replacement. Foster, though a very good goalkeeper, These players, surrounded by above-average fullbacks like Stephen Carr, would form the cornerstone of a nigh-on impenetrable Championship - and possible Europa League - defence. Colin Doyle and Phillips contemporary Maik Taylor are good Championship level custodians, meaning Foster is perhaps more replaceable than the centre-backs.

Admittedly, given the expensive contracts doled out to these key players, this could again prove easier said than done.

Get healthy.

The Brummie nation lost several games to injury this year with James McFadden, Scott Dann, Cameron Jerome and Zigic among the worst hit. If that foursome played more often, it's likely they would have mustered either the goals or, at worst, the goal difference to remain in the Premiership. Trainers can make a difference, so keeping your best players healthy means for a much easier route back to the Premier League.

Adequately replace Sebastian Larsson.

Larsson is gone - G-A-W-N. After stalling for months on signing a new contract, being dangled unceremoniously to Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United, the man who looks more Swedish than IKEA has made it plain he won't be back at St Andrews. He's been key for the Blues on the right of midfield and will want to stay in the Premiership.

Likely replacements from the second tier could include former loanee Scott Sinclair (though they'd have to pay to get him from Swansea, and only if they don't seal promotion), Reading's Jimmy Kebe (the same applies) or even Leeds' Robert Snodgrass. Given McLeish's preference for experience over youth, expect them to target older Premiership targets such as Ricardo Gardner, Brett Emerton or Bjorn Helge Riise.

Given much of their game is built around scoring from set pieces, acquiring someone with dead-ball magic is of the utmost priority.

Reinforce the strikers with top-level Championship talent.

It's no secret the Brummies have struggled in front of goal for three four the best part of 25 years now. Their goals scored has declined over their past three Premiership stints from 46 to 38 and finally this year, 37. Their intervening spell in the Championship (2008-09), they only mustered 54 goals, an average of 1.2. Cameron Jerome doesn't score, Kevin Phillips is ageing faster than Walter Donovan in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade and this year's big acquisition Nikola Zigic had the season from hell. They score less often than Urkel at a Supermodel convention.

The Championship has plenty of striking options where the Blues could take advantage. Billy Sharp, Kris Boyd and Scott McDonald all have the ability to tinkle the twines, if not necessarily add much to lead-up play. They're all worth an inquiry. If the price is right, Everton may be persuaded to part with Jermaine Beckford, James Vaughan or Yakubu.

Chase the Europa League

You only get the chance to play in Europe so often, so to simply disregard that opportunity in favour of an instant Premiership return seems foolhardy from afar. Understandably their priority should be regaining their top flight status, but it's also worth rewarding the fans with trips to Podgorica, Belgrade, Split or St Etienne. By chasing the Europa League, you also send a message to potential wantaways like Foster, Johnson, Dann and (crucially) Craig Gardner that the club has ambition, if not necessarily the finances to currently fuel it.

Image of Sebastian Larsson courtesy: www.bbc.co.uk/sport

Image of Alex McLeish courtesy: www.klikfc.com

An Open Letter to Cricket Australia

by Balanced Sports columnist Ben Roberts

Dear Cricket Australia,

As a cricket fan who grew up loving the greatest era of Australian cricket ever, throughout the 1990s and 2000s, I run the huge risk of being labelled the fairest of fair weather supporters by writing this. But I continue at this great personal risk. From now I am reneging my emotional attachment to the Australian Cricket team until further notice.

This has zero to do with the on-field exploits of the players who, despite the home loss of the Ashes and the World Cup are now faced with a need to improve, still retain my utmost respect. It has everything to do with the failure of the Cricket Australia administration.

Cricket administrators hold more power and sway than any other sports administration, and this has been a truism since W.G. Grace was in short pants. Many have received honour of the highest order in the game despite never having graced the field at the highest level. But the influence of the modern administration of Australian cricket has plunged to such a depth of crises that I struggle to understand how it can pull itself from without radical overhaul – an overhaul that appears as likely to happen as a Sachin Tendulker first ball duck.

My Sunday perusal of the sporting media has identified one decision and one practice of Cricket Australia that completely boggles my mind as to how they can be considered acceptable in themselves. This is apart from the fact Australian cricket is supposedly going through a full scale independent review into the current situation. A review that I have previously highlighted is made more toothless by the day with major decisions being made without consideration of review findings!

Cricket Australia and the Australian Cricketers Association, holding a permanent loggerhead relationship, have this week agreed to roll over their memorandum of understanding on playing conditions. In a world of consistent practice and fixtures this would be unremarkable and may evoke a little applause. But with the advent of the new Big Bash League a constant MOU focussing on getting players as much money out of the T20 cash cow as possible, coupled with an extended T20 fixture, simply shifts more money away from the first-class and List A games and into T20.

As I heard Gideon Haigh point out, you are now considered more valuable by Cricket Australia if you can slog 20 runs from 10 balls than for crafting centuries. Cricket Australia, have you not realised that the crowds and ratings are still incredibly strong for Test cricket whose quality needs a strong first-class game? Or did you go to sleep while the rest of the cricketing world watched a tremendous festival of 50 over cricket in the recent World Cup?

As a CEO James Sutherland continues to be your greatest accountant. There is no doubt that with a weak board Sutherland appears to hold you over the barrel on the basis of continued short term income results. Not a bad effort for an organisation that ostensibly is supposed to be non-profit driven. But this is the extent that Sutherland’s accounting knowledge ends, his knowledge of appropriate governance practice is seemingly non-existent as the second piece of news I came across indicates.

This far reaching (yet weakening) review is apparently being hamstrung by Sutherland’s presence at all interviews being conducted. The idea of an independent review or an audit is that an unattached set of eyes are presented with information and seek to understand why particular decisions are made. Sutherland’s presence, and therefore influence over information provided by pressurised employees being interviewed, is the final nail in the coffin of a review that has already been cut off at the knees. Clearly controlling and concerned for his future, Sutherland’s behaviour paints to me a character with less than a passing interest in honesty and transparency.

Cricket Australia, if your board had any sort of fortitude it would be holding its senior management to greater account than it is, and this is a great shame. Please look to your counterparts at the ECB, trustees of the strongest domestic game in the world, for some idea of what it means to invest for the future. I cannot stop applauding some recent decisions of the ECB, and for England fans this will continue to be reflected on the field. Based on this I need to make this step of withdrawing my emotional support for Australian cricket team until such time as there are changes at Board and CEO level.

I love cricket too much to stay away. Short of spiritual or familial pursuits it is almost unarguable that a summers day attending the cricket for me borders on perfection. My regular match day attendance will remain as the next cricket season rolls on, but when it comes to emotional investment in the national team I must hold back. This will cost me in the times of success, as I cannot permit myself to enjoy them fully under such restriction.

It has been a wonderful relationship for all these years Cricket Australia, but until you grow up we must remain only acquaintances.

Yours Previously,

Ben Roberts

Image courtesy: zimbio.com

Ben Roberts also writes at Books with Balls, where you find reviews of books that guys read.

Time for Wigan to accept their destiny: The Championship

The Premiership is richer for the passing game of Blackpool and Wigan Athletic. The same could be said about their respective locations, nestled in smaller markets in England's Northwest. The Latics and the Tangerines don't necessarily bring a lot of fans, but they certainly offer a different feel to big-city clubs like the clubs' possible replacement QPR. What they may subtract from the league in fan numbers, they replace in diversity.

While receiving the occasional pasting this year, both clubs sill chase survival after wins last week; Blackpool downed Bolton in their usual shootout, while the Latics sealed West Ham's fate with a comeback from two goals down. Both wins could be regarded as an fine examples of their opponents' profligacy or generosity, but it would be extremely ungenerous to suggest these successes were the result only of their opponents shortcomings.

Perhaps now, before potentially their last game in the EPL for some time, it's a good time to examine Wigan's Premiership heritage. They are the picture of a division-climbing club, having elevated themselves - courtesy Dave Whelan's JJB Sports in the early days - from the old Third Division to their current position as the Premiership's youngest (founded 1932) but 12th-longest tenured team. To this point, they've outlasted sixteen different teams and changed managers four times, moving from Jewell-ball through the disastrous Chris Hutchings era to Brucie-ball and now have (mostly) acclimatised to Martinez's passing style. They've been involved in perhaps the most dramatic final-day match in recent memory, their encounter with Sheffield United that saw former Blade David Unsworth slot the deciding penalty to retain their top-tier status.

Unfortunately, aside from a nice first season, that incredible spectacle may prove the lasting image and best moment in Wigan's EPL legacy. Over recent years, Dave Whelan has sold his JJB Sports business, Steve Bruce moved to manage Sunderland and took with him his extraordinary Central & South American scouting network (resulting in Latics like Hendry Thomas, Maynor Figuero, Hugo Rodallega and most notably, Wilson Palacios); finally, they've managed only average results from Roberto Martinez's flowing football. Crowds at the DW Stadium - the reading of which always proving something of a fraught exercise given Wigan's proximity to English Rugby country - have dropped an avaerage of 1200 this season to a little more than 16,800. This marks the third straight year of decline.

While this is likely to be an incredibly unpopular opinion with Latic fans, maybe it's time for Wigan to fade into the Championship. To the neutral observer, their Premiership stint has been generally one coloured in varying tones of beige and as their crowds opt for distractions anew, they are joined by the rest of the league; where Wigan are considered only when they appear on the fixture list. The diversity they bring to the league has become overshadowed by the disregard in which they are held by opposing fans. And with the emergence of Swansea City and Blackpool there are, for the first time in a few years, replacements on hand in style and locale.

It could be that the Championship is their level and the Latics have overachieved for years. This season's average attendance would rank mid-table in the Championship and would likely drop to match the playing level. Squad investment hasn't been there in recent years, with the relatively high-price purchases of Boselli and N'Zogbia overshadowed by the departures of Antonio Valencia (£16M) and Palacios (£ 12M). This is reflected somewhat in Whelan's heartwarming suggestions that Martinez's job is safe in sickness (relegation) or in health (survival). For two years, their first priority has not been to thrive in the top flight, but only to survive.

It's a simple fact of football that it's difficult to continue competing without adequate (and wise) investment: in some respects owners must throw good money after bad. Attempting to turn a profit by buying low and selling high is a laudable school of thought, but it's also a recipe for eventual (and potentially terminal) struggle as Middlesbrough discovered in 2009. The Latics have had a good run in the Premiership and may well survive to fight another year. But without substantial financial commitment, can they hope for any further development from their current squad? The answer, unfortunately, is at best a "maybe".

With all depending on what projects as a wonderful "Survival Sunday", we'll know sooner rather than later. Wigan may have drawn the best fixture, seeing them fighting against Stoke City, who's season effectively ended with last week's FA Cup final. Unlike their Nor'west Tangerine rivals, they don't face United. Unlike the Brummies, they aren't away to Spurs. They don't face another hungry relegation candidate as when Wolves and Blackburn meet. Their destiny remains their own - another year of overachievement and struggle, or perhaps this group is the one which accepts what appears to be their eventual fate: away matches at Coventry, Ipswich and Derby County.

Image of Roberto Martinez courtesy: www.guardian.co.uk

Image of Mauro Boselli courtesy: www.clicklancashire.co.uk

What next for West Ham?

This weekend, three of Europe's more famous clubs - Sampdoria, Frankfurt and West Ham - were condemned to the second divisions of their respective countries. Perhaps the smallest reverberations came with West Ham's demotion: the Hammers struggled all season long under a hangdog, lame-dog manager and if the same the lack of spirit shown by several senior West Ham figures is reproduced next year, it could indicate a lengthy stay for the club in the second tier. Popular expectation is that the squad will be gutted as several key players depart: Football Writers' Association Player of the Year Scott Parker, the out of contract Matthew Upson and goalkeeper Robert Green are likely to lead the exodus.

But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it's lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one - here's a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.

1. Sign a manager with experience and patience

Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months' worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club's youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.

Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he'd develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren. Update: McLaren has already ruled himself out of contention. January favourite Martin O'Neill is still in the running.

2. Expunge the deadwood

While Pablo Barrera hasn't lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant's transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT's.

As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn't the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.

3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies

It's been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board's first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about "the West Ham way" and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results - Allardyce, anyone? - a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.

4. Light a fire under the forwards

While Cole's struggled through a fair-to-poor season and may not even be at Upton Park next year, he could dominate the Championship. So could Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they'll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he's not sold, could also dominate in English football's lower reaches. Demba Ba also figures here if he's not sold - seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.

5. Value for money

Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he'll go. He'll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways - but is likely to find it's way either into reducing the club's remarkable debt or investment in the squad. The secret to success - and admittedly this is easier said than done - is to pry top-tier talent away from mid-table Championship squads, they're on the right track. The Guardian has published a piece detailing what to expect, player-by-player.

6. Free the club's youth

All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club's youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.

The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation. While they aren't currently at Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good - the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of the youth in East London.

Balanced Sports on Soccerlens & The Roar

Balanced Sports has been published on Australian sports opinion website The Roar, with pieces by Matthew Wood on Bobby Davis and how the 2011 edition of the Geelong FC being "Crap Invincibles".

We've also been published on Soccerlens, detailing how West Ham can bounce straight back up from relegation to the Championship.

Applying NHL Goalkeeper stats to the English Premiership

In the English Premiership, goalkeepers often face the most scrutiny and pressure. It's a simple truth of football that custodians need to maintain concentration during long periods of inactivity and then make a save, clear a ball or claim a cross. When they fail, often it costs their team a goal. In short, to have a reliable man between the posts is the foundation of a solid defence.

There are many methods of evaluating goalkeeper efficacy such as Goals Conceded and Saves but rarely with this position do stats tell the full story. As with statistical application across all sports, much depends on interpretation. The only GK stats readily available don't take into account things such as howlers (for which Tottenham's Gomes must be very thankful), nor aspects of defending which usually fall to the 'keeper such as communication, marshalling a defence or their (in)ability to deal with crosses. The one stat however which doesn't appear is Save Percentage.

Save percentage in football doesn't fully measure a goalkeeper's efficiency but it can provide some small insight into how the goalkeeper for each team performs. Often GKs are exposed to "no win" situations due to the size of their goalmouth, their defences' positioning and the skills or pace of an opposition player. Save percentage and Goals Allowed Average are key indicators as to an NHL custodian's performance, even though they still don't fully reflect a backstop's value.

To port those NHL numbers across to the Premiership makes for interesting reading. The following table is arranged by Goalkeeper Save Percentage. It shows (perhaps) why Fulham's David Stockdale got such big raps while covering for Mark Schwarzer earlier in the season and that Joe Hart's slight slip in form this year since returning to City from Birmingham is perhaps overstated.

For the full analysis, visit the Goalkeeper Stats page.

Top 15

Team	Goalkeeper	Games	Saves	Conceded	GAA	Save %
Fulham	David Stockdale	7	26	6	0.86	0.81
Tottenham	Carlo Cudicini	7	21	6	0.86	0.78
Man City	Joe Hart	36	107	33	0.92	0.76
Stoke City	Asmir Begovic	27	93	31	1.15	0.75
Tottenham	Gomes	30	115	39	1.3	0.75
Chelsea	Petr Cech	37	98	32	0.86	0.75
Man Utd	Edwin van der Sar	32	80	30	0.94	0.73
Bolton	Jussi Jaaskelainen	34	118	47	1.38	0.72
Fulham	Mark Schwarzer	30	91	35	1.17	0.72
Arsenal	Wojciech Szczesny	14	42	17	1.21	0.71
West Ham	Robert Green	36	154	66	1.83	0.7
Wigan	Ali Al Habsi	33	112	49	1.48	0.7
Sunderland	Craig Gordon	15	50	21	1.4	0.7
Arsenal	Lukasz Fabianski	14	36	14	1	0.7
Liverpool	Pepe Reina	37	96	43	1.16	0.69

Bottom 5

Team	Goalkeeper	Games	Saves	Conceded	GAA	Save %
Newcastle	Tim Krul	19	47	32	1.68	0.59
West Brom	Boaz Myhill	6	18	13	2.17	0.58
Blackpool	Paul Rachubka	1	6	5	5	0.55
Man Utd	Tomasz Kuszczak	5	6	5	1	0.55
Wigan	Chris Kirkland	4	5	12	3	0.29

Image of Mark Schwarzer courtesy: free-football.tv

Image of Carey Price courtesy: leshabitantssontmagnifique.wordpress.com

Obituary: Remembering Bobby Davis

Today the tributes flow for Bob Davis, "The Geelong Flyer", as well they should. Davis passed away yesterday at the age of 82. With it, he leaves behind a legacy as Geelong's favourite son.

The reason Bob Davis is so fondly remembered isn't his footballing ability, though he had loads. Neither is it his coaching, which delivered in 1963 Corio Bay's last flag for the twentieth century. It wasn't World of Sport, "Fair Dinkum Unbelievable", League Teams or the Three Wise Monkeys. It was his lifetime love for Geelong Football Club. Bobby was the essence of a one-club man, totally aware of the incredible gift the Cats were to the city of Greater Geelong.

It would be unfair to gloss over his influential play and coaching. As a half-forward flanker, his athleticism was unparalleled and he boasted a devastating long kick. He represented his state with flair and distinction. Any rumours suggesting the Cat teams of those years weren't tough are completely unfounded - no-one won in that era without being hard. He captained, coached - starting at 26 - and won a Best & Fairest award before calling time on a 189-game career. Perhaps the greatest compliment paid to him is that the iconic image of him, in full stream with football tucked under arm, is one of the defining images of that era of Aussie Rules.

There's a pleasing symmetry in that during his coaching period US President John F. Kennedy declared "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country", because that was Bob's attitude to the Kardinia Park faithful. After taking over the reins as Geelong coach, he brought Polly Farmer to Geelong and used Polly's unique skill-set to kickstart a running game which echoed back to Hickey's slick, speedy 1951-52-53 unit; teams in which Bob Davis was a key member.

Bob Davis defined Geelong Football Club for over sixty years. During that time, he was an entertainer both on and off the oval. Alongside Jack Dyer and Lou Richards in League Teams, Davis had access to almost every home in Victoria in a format-defining show which with the modern proliferation of media sources will never again be replicated. His - and his comrades' - impact on football commentary shows should make (Davis protégé) Sam Newman, Eddie McGuire and the Cats' next best born entertainer, Billy Brownless, offer up daily prayers of thanks. There was no laddish behaviour or uncouthness, only three blokes having fun talking about football.

Throughout almost his entire adult life, Bobby was the first source for comment on all matters Geelong: from the brawl with Hawthorn in 1985 to near-bankruptcy in the early 2000s and finally, memorably, awarding Tom Harley the 2009 Premiership Cup and celebrating with "the boys". He was conscious of the blessing the win would be not only to the players, coaches and administrators of Geelong Football Club but also the boon it would prove to the entire region. The city of Geelong, the AFL community and a lot of Victoria will mourn his passing.

Bob Davis, dead at eighty-two. He will be remembered. He will be missed.

Image courtesy: geelongadvertiser.com.au

For The Age's photo gallery honouring Bobby Davis, click here.

Geelong, like Manchester United, are the "Crap Invincibles"

Geelong's unbeaten start to the AFL season has surprised many. Even so, their gritty three-point victory on Friday night perhaps stamped them again as a viable Premiership threat. Pre-season the Cats were daubed old, one-paced and vulnerable not for any lack of skill - they still boast players such as Enright, Corey, Chapman, Scarlett and golden child Joel Selwood - but because they'd lost their best player and their fabled "window" was closing. Rumours of their demise have been greatly overstated. While many expected the Cats to fall from contention this season, they've done quite the opposite.

This is hardly a different viewpoint to some reports emanating from Victoria. The Cats still bear (most of) the fruit of a decade's intelligent drafting and their core, though nearer retirement than debut, may eke out another triumph or two. The Premiership may be a bridge too far, but it is now firmly on the Cats' radar.

This isn't the first time such successful renewal on the fly has happened at the Cattery. In 1995, nearly broken from three Grand Final defeats, Malcolm Blight walked away from coaching Geelong to be replaced by his assistant Gary Ayres. The former Hawthorn defender wanted to toughen a notoriously freewheeling and attack-minded club and got immediate results. The Cats hardened up and were rewarded with another Grand Final appearance that year only to be demolished by an irresistible Carlton unit. They made the finals again in 1997 - with a team many thought much improved over their mid-90s teams - and were eliminated after losing in Adelaide amidst the drama of Leigh Colbert's phantom mark.

These memories have been re-awakened this year. Rookie coach Chris Scott - in his playing days an uncompromising defender like Ayres - has revitalised some aspects of the playing group, most obviously David Wojcinski. He has empowered others, like Taylor Hunt and Daniel Menzel. But more than that, he and the club don't subscribe to 2010 tactics that then-coach Mark Thompson admitted were flawed. The Cats have begun to grind out results as if they've become so accustomed to winning that they have simply just continued this learned behaviour, albeit in a different style.

A parallel can be drawn from the land of tea, Sherlock Holmes, Doctor Who and Pippa Middleton. Manchester United were crowned English Premier Leauge Champions on Saturday, capturing their fourth title in five years. This triumph has been touted rightly as one of Sir Alex Ferguson's greatest achievements: his team - missing Cristiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tevez and (mostly) Wayne Rooney's form - clung onto top position relying on an ageing squad sprinkled with youth.

In 2010, United lost the title to Chelseas and pundits predicted a fall-off. The squad - with only one new player really contributing - went unbeaten into February, the equivalent of the AFL's Round 16. The ESPN Soccernet podcast dubbed Ferguson's mob "The Crap Invincibles" for their ability to avoid defeat yet look totally uninspiring doing it.

Although the AFL's answer to Sir Alex is working in his lab preparing to mastermind an orange outfit into season 2012, it sounds familiar, doesn't it? While the Cats have been impressive so far, the high-scoring juggernaut of 2007 is gone. Like United, Geelong has the enviable gift of being able to win despite their skills not being at their peak. They are the AFL's "Crap Invincibles". This isn't an insult - quite the opposite - their ability to get results such as Friday night's win (against a Magpie outfit they at times looked unable to cope with) is testament to their determination and smarts. They are achieving not because of what they can do physically, but because of strength of character.

Neither club's time-derived ability to win has died. In fact, though their squads are unquestionably weaker than during their pomp of 2007-08, their collective nous has perhaps increased. Injury time has become synonymous with a United rally and goal, while the Cats have made a (slightly annoying but understandable) habit of being able to overpower their opposition with a quarter and a half of devastating play. The popular adage states that success breeds success. It couldn't be more true than in Geelong or Manchester United.

Chris Scott image courtesy: theage.com.au

Sir Alex Ferguson image courtesy: simply-reds.blogspot.com

What does it take to stay up?

Over the past decade, thirty clubs have been promoted from the Championship to the Premiership. Some take with them solid financial footing, others acquire it with the TV rights riches that accompany such a promotion. Occasionally, clubs will try to set out all stops to defend their territory, fearing leaking goals is a surefire route back to the second tier. Others – like Owen Coyle, Tony Mowbray and Ian Holloway – prefer to play the attractive football which got them to the Big Dance in the first place.

Within the following table, there are several “usual suspects”, clubs which have see-sawed between Premiership and League Championship - Sunderland, Birmingham and particularly that very definition of the “yo-yo team”, West Bromwich Albion. Each club has had the chance to attain multiple promotions because they’ve acquired the annoying habit of suffering relegation almost immediately after each promotion.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen a disturbing trend towards clubs lasting only one or two years in the Premiership after promotion. Of course this has always been a problem for the Football League but recently this problem has become even more tricky as survival almost demands significant fiscal investment.

In the table below, recent years have provided a dearth of clubs able to survive in the big league long term: recently, Stoke City and Newcastle appear able to maintain their EPL status, but all of recent promoted teams West Brom, Wolves, Birmingham and Blackpool have had one strong season followed by a weak one (and relegation) or have failed to convince altogether.

Year	Teams Promoted	EPL Years	Points	Goals	Conceded	Result
2001-02	Fulham Blackburn Bolton	10* 10* 10*	44 46 40	36 55 44	44 51 62	Safe – 13 Safe – 10 Safe – 16
2002-03	Man City West Brom Birmingham	9* 1 4	51 26 48	47 29 41	51 65 49	Safe – 9 Drop – 19 Safe – 13
2003-04	Portsmouth Leicester Wolves	7 1 1	45 33 33	47 48 38	54 65 77	Safe – 13 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2004-05	Norwich West Brom Crystal Palace	1 2 1	33 34 33	42 36 41	77 61 62	Drop – 19 Safe – 17 Drop – 18
2005-06	Sunderland Wigan Athl. West Ham	1 6* 6*	15 51 55	26 45 52	69 52 55	Drop – 20 Safe – 10 Safe – 9
2006-07	Reading Sheff. Utd Watford	2 1 1	55 38 28	52 32 29	47 55 59	Safe – 8 Drop – 18 Drop – 20
2007-08	Sunderland Birmingham Derby County	4* 1 1	39 35 11	36 46 20	59 62 89	Safe – 15 Drop – 19 Drop – 20
2008-09	West Brom Stoke City Hull City	1 3* 2	32 45 35	36 38 39	67 55 64	Drop – 20 Safe – 12 Safe – 17
2009-10	Wolves Birmingham Burnley	2* 2* 1	38 50 30	32 38 42	56 47 82	Safe – 15 Safe – 9 Drop - 18
2010-11	Newcastle West Brom Blackpool	1* 1* 1*	?	?	?	?

Perhaps the greatest key is not so much goals scored as goals conceded in the first year in the top tier. While wins may be the key to survival, it stands to reason that if clubs don’t concede, they don’t lose. If we average the number of first-year goals conceded by “long-term” survivors – those who lasted longer than two seasons – against those who went down within two years, we come up with the following:

First year stats ========	Total Conceded	Avg Conceded	Total Scored	Avg Scored
Survived >2 years	523	52.3	400	40
Relegated w/in 2 years	919	65	524	37.4

Clubs promoted in 2009 or 2010 have not been taken into account as four still battle relegation.

No club has allowed more than Bolton’s 62 goals in 2001-02 and survived for more than two years. Within the last five years that total has dropped – Sunderland conceded 59 in 2007-08 and remain in the Premiership to this day. The club who conceded the least and were still relegated within their first two years was Reading, who actually conceded the second-smallest total of first-season goals, but suffered a horrible case of “second season syndrome” after failing to adequately reinforce after a superb first year and were condemned to the Championship.

Of course life’s never as simple as statistics seem to make it. Often, yo-yo clubs simply aren’t good enough in any one aspect of the game to survive in the Premiership for any length of time (eg. Watford and Derby County).

It seems scoring goals isn’t as important as saving them. This shows that clubs who set out stall to defend – such as Stoke City – and then build upon that solidity are well-placed to survive. Clubs who favour footballing philosophies rather than pragmatism – clubs like Burnley and Blackpool – make for a happier, more watchable Premier League but seldom survive for long periods.

Image of Owen Coyle courtesy: telegraph.co.uk

Image of Tony Pulis courtesy: msn.foxsports.com